Considering both the discrete and ordered nature of the household car ownership an ordered logistic regression model to predict household car ownership is established by using the data of Nanjing Household Travel Surv...Considering both the discrete and ordered nature of the household car ownership an ordered logistic regression model to predict household car ownership is established by using the data of Nanjing Household Travel Survey in the year 2012. The model results show that some household characteristics such as the number of driver licenses household income and home location are significant.Yet the intersection density indicating the street patterns of home location and the dummy near the subway and the bus stop density indicating the transit accessibility of home location are insignificant.The model estimation obtains a good γ2 the goodness of fit of the model and the model validation also shows a good performance in prediction.The marginal effects of all the significant explanatory variables are calculated to quantify the odds change in the household car ownership following a one-unit change in the explanatory variables.展开更多
The techniques to forecast available parking space(APS) are indispensable components for parking guidance systems(PGS). According to the data collected in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, the changing characteristics of ...The techniques to forecast available parking space(APS) are indispensable components for parking guidance systems(PGS). According to the data collected in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, the changing characteristics of APS were studied. Thereafter, aiming to build up a multi-step APS forecasting model that provides richer information than a conventional one-step model, the largest Lyapunov exponents(largest LEs) method was introduced into PGS. By experimental tests conducted using the same dataset, its prediction performance was compared with traditional wavelet neural network(WNN) method in both one-step and multi-step processes. Based on the results, a new multi-step forecasting model called WNN-LE method was proposed, where WNN, which enjoys a more accurate performance along with a better learning ability in short-term forecasting, was applied in the early forecast steps while the Lyapunov exponent prediction method in the latter steps precisely reflect the chaotic feature in latter forecast period. The MSE of APS forecasting for one hour time period can be reduced from 83.1 to 27.1(in a parking building with 492 berths) by using largest LEs method instead of WNN and further reduced to 19.0 by conducted the new method.展开更多
In order to expand the natural energy and the energy conservation, ＂the smart PV （photovoltaic power generation） ＆ EV （electric vehicle） system＂ has been proposed and the effect has been clarified. In the smart...In order to expand the natural energy and the energy conservation, ＂the smart PV （photovoltaic power generation） ＆ EV （electric vehicle） system＂ has been proposed and the effect has been clarified. In the smart PV ＆ EV system, it is important that electric vehicles become popular. Therefore, the AI-EV （air-conditioner integrated electric vehicle） has been proposed. In this paper, the AI-EV is designed based on the required car air-conditioner capacity. And, the value of AI-EV is compared with a gasoline vehicle, HV （hybrid vehicle） and EV using the mathematical simulation model As a result, it is clarified that the minimum displacement of the small-engine is 120 cc for AI-EV. In the smart PV ＆ EV system, AI-EV can reduce CO_2 emissions by 20% almost the same as EV. Additionally, AI-EV is able to gain the cruising range more than twice as long as EV.展开更多
文摘Considering both the discrete and ordered nature of the household car ownership an ordered logistic regression model to predict household car ownership is established by using the data of Nanjing Household Travel Survey in the year 2012. The model results show that some household characteristics such as the number of driver licenses household income and home location are significant.Yet the intersection density indicating the street patterns of home location and the dummy near the subway and the bus stop density indicating the transit accessibility of home location are insignificant.The model estimation obtains a good γ2 the goodness of fit of the model and the model validation also shows a good performance in prediction.The marginal effects of all the significant explanatory variables are calculated to quantify the odds change in the household car ownership following a one-unit change in the explanatory variables.
基金Project(2012CB725402)supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(51338003,50908051)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The techniques to forecast available parking space(APS) are indispensable components for parking guidance systems(PGS). According to the data collected in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, the changing characteristics of APS were studied. Thereafter, aiming to build up a multi-step APS forecasting model that provides richer information than a conventional one-step model, the largest Lyapunov exponents(largest LEs) method was introduced into PGS. By experimental tests conducted using the same dataset, its prediction performance was compared with traditional wavelet neural network(WNN) method in both one-step and multi-step processes. Based on the results, a new multi-step forecasting model called WNN-LE method was proposed, where WNN, which enjoys a more accurate performance along with a better learning ability in short-term forecasting, was applied in the early forecast steps while the Lyapunov exponent prediction method in the latter steps precisely reflect the chaotic feature in latter forecast period. The MSE of APS forecasting for one hour time period can be reduced from 83.1 to 27.1(in a parking building with 492 berths) by using largest LEs method instead of WNN and further reduced to 19.0 by conducted the new method.
文摘In order to expand the natural energy and the energy conservation, ＂the smart PV （photovoltaic power generation） ＆ EV （electric vehicle） system＂ has been proposed and the effect has been clarified. In the smart PV ＆ EV system, it is important that electric vehicles become popular. Therefore, the AI-EV （air-conditioner integrated electric vehicle） has been proposed. In this paper, the AI-EV is designed based on the required car air-conditioner capacity. And, the value of AI-EV is compared with a gasoline vehicle, HV （hybrid vehicle） and EV using the mathematical simulation model As a result, it is clarified that the minimum displacement of the small-engine is 120 cc for AI-EV. In the smart PV ＆ EV system, AI-EV can reduce CO_2 emissions by 20% almost the same as EV. Additionally, AI-EV is able to gain the cruising range more than twice as long as EV.
