Category-5 hurricanes are the most devastating from the standpoint of human and economic losses. The occurrence of this kind of hurricane is believed to be of quasi-random nature, so it is very difficult to predict th...Category-5 hurricanes are the most devastating from the standpoint of human and economic losses. The occurrence of this kind of hurricane is believed to be of quasi-random nature, so it is very difficult to predict them well in advance. Warnings at this regard are generally given in the course of their development. We propose here, that there are some inherently periodicities of the phenomena that allow to predict category-5 hurricanes, even with some years of anticipation. For our study, we consider the North Atlantic category-5 hurricanes since 1920. We consider in this study data of the SST （sea surface temperature） of the North Atlantic Ocean as a representative parameter of hurricane activity. Then, by means of the wavelet analysis, we determine the dominant oscillation periods and establish correspondence rules using fuzzy logic. The wavelet power spectrum yields the following dominant periodicities： 0.5, 1, 3, 11, 22 and 32 years. The fuzzy logic searches for associations between the hurricanes occurrence and the behavior of the harmonics. Such correspondence rules lead us to restrict dates of possible hurricane occurrence. Interpolation of the periodic behavior allows for a good reconstruction of past hurricanes dates since 1920, as well as extrapolation to predict dates of occurrence in the future. We conclude that the conditions for the formation of the next category-5 hurricane in the North Atlantic may occur during the seasons of 2015-2017 with the highest probability in 2017.展开更多
The greatest charm of science fiction is not the artistic imagination, but the scientific imagination.Liu Cixin＇s the Three-body Problem as a Chinese science fiction novel, reflected Chinese writer how to think scien...The greatest charm of science fiction is not the artistic imagination, but the scientific imagination.Liu Cixin＇s the Three-body Problem as a Chinese science fiction novel, reflected Chinese writer how to think science and technology and its possible future of mankind＇s imagination. This novel contained ＂Deconstruction＂ Utopia, ＂Transcendence＂ dystopia and ＂Composited＂ Heterotopias, Which fully demonstrated singularity politics＇s great ideological tension between post modernity thinking of in this or that and typical Chinese style doctrine and dialectics.展开更多
The idea that approximate exactness is the most we can and should expect scientific theories to yield underlies the formation and application of the multi-valued logic of approximation discussed in this paper. In this...The idea that approximate exactness is the most we can and should expect scientific theories to yield underlies the formation and application of the multi-valued logic of approximation discussed in this paper. In this logic, inexactness （measured by truth values） is controlled and minimized by means of uniquely designed deductions. We show how the notion of equality （including substitution of equals） is handled within this logic and we apply it to certain principles and interpretations of quantum theory.展开更多
文摘Category-5 hurricanes are the most devastating from the standpoint of human and economic losses. The occurrence of this kind of hurricane is believed to be of quasi-random nature, so it is very difficult to predict them well in advance. Warnings at this regard are generally given in the course of their development. We propose here, that there are some inherently periodicities of the phenomena that allow to predict category-5 hurricanes, even with some years of anticipation. For our study, we consider the North Atlantic category-5 hurricanes since 1920. We consider in this study data of the SST （sea surface temperature） of the North Atlantic Ocean as a representative parameter of hurricane activity. Then, by means of the wavelet analysis, we determine the dominant oscillation periods and establish correspondence rules using fuzzy logic. The wavelet power spectrum yields the following dominant periodicities： 0.5, 1, 3, 11, 22 and 32 years. The fuzzy logic searches for associations between the hurricanes occurrence and the behavior of the harmonics. Such correspondence rules lead us to restrict dates of possible hurricane occurrence. Interpolation of the periodic behavior allows for a good reconstruction of past hurricanes dates since 1920, as well as extrapolation to predict dates of occurrence in the future. We conclude that the conditions for the formation of the next category-5 hurricane in the North Atlantic may occur during the seasons of 2015-2017 with the highest probability in 2017.
文摘The greatest charm of science fiction is not the artistic imagination, but the scientific imagination.Liu Cixin＇s the Three-body Problem as a Chinese science fiction novel, reflected Chinese writer how to think science and technology and its possible future of mankind＇s imagination. This novel contained ＂Deconstruction＂ Utopia, ＂Transcendence＂ dystopia and ＂Composited＂ Heterotopias, Which fully demonstrated singularity politics＇s great ideological tension between post modernity thinking of in this or that and typical Chinese style doctrine and dialectics.
文摘The idea that approximate exactness is the most we can and should expect scientific theories to yield underlies the formation and application of the multi-valued logic of approximation discussed in this paper. In this logic, inexactness （measured by truth values） is controlled and minimized by means of uniquely designed deductions. We show how the notion of equality （including substitution of equals） is handled within this logic and we apply it to certain principles and interpretations of quantum theory.
