灾害天气与“厄尔尼诺”

1980年初春,正在四川与湖北交界处考察的中国奇异动物考察队在一个偏僻的山谷里,发现了一只被当地猎人设下的套子套住的幼小鬣羚。那时野生动物保护法还没有颁布,因此猎杀野生动物在山区是司空见惯。考察队员见到如此幼小的鬣羚将被活活吃掉,都感觉很可怜,于是就把它解救下来抱回了我们的营地。

关于ENSO本质的进一步研究

基于ENSO是热带太平洋海气相互作用产物的科学观点,一系列的分析研究表明:赤道太平洋次表层海温异常(SOTA)有明显的年际变化(循环),并且与ENSO发生密切相关;ENSO的真正源区在赤道西太平洋暖池,赤道西太平洋暖池正(负)SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传到东大平洋,导致ElNino(La Nina)的爆发;在暖池正(负)SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传的同时,将有负(正)SOTA沿10°N和10°S两个纬度带向西传播,从而构成SOTA的循环;热带太平洋SOTA年际循环的驱动者主要是山异常东亚季风所引起的赤道西太平洋纬向风的异常。进而,可以提出关于ENSO本质的一种新理论,即ENSO实质上主要是由异常东亚季风引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的年际循环。

Asymmetric Response of the South China Sea SST to El Nio and La Nia

The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature （SST） in the South China Sea （SCS） is investigated according to its relationship with E1 Nifio/La Nifia （EN/LN） using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS SST bears two peaks associated with EN/LN and shows the asymmetric features. Coinciding with the mature phase of EN/LN, the first SST warming/cooling peaks in December（0）-February（1） （DJF（1）） and centers in the southern part. The major difference is in the amplitude associated with the strength of EN/LN. However, the SCS SST anomaly shows distinct difference after the mature phase of EN/LN. The EN SST warm- ing develops a mid-summer peak in June-August（1） （JJA（1）） and persists up to September-October（l）, with the same amplitude of the first warming peak. Whereas the LN SST cooling peaks in May（l）, it decays slowly until the end of the year, with amplitude much weaker. Comparing with SST and atmospheric circulations, the weak response and early termination of the second cooling is due to the failure of the cyclonic wind anomalies to develop in the northwest Pacific during JJA（1）.

Asymmetric relationships between El Nino/La Nina and floods/droughts in the following summer over Chongqing,China

This study presents a detailed analysis of the asymmetric relationships between the warm/cold phase of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation and the typical flood/drought years in summer over Chongqing.Furthermore,its underpinning mechanisms are also explored.The results show that:(1)El Ni?o and La Ni?a have an asymmetric influence on summer precipitation in the following year over Chongqing.Generally,the composite atmospheric circulation anomalies for El Ni?o years are consistent with the composite results for typical flood years in summer over Chongqing,which indicates a tight link between typical flood years in summer over Chongqing and El Ni?o events.However,the relationship between typical drought years in summer over Chongqing and La Ni?a events is not significant.(2)From winter to the following summer,the extent of positive SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific associated with typical flood years in summer over Chongqing shrinks,whereas in the tropical Indian Ocean,the extent slightly expands.This trend indicates that the impact of El Ni?o on typical flood years in summer over Chongqing is maintained through the‘relay effect’of SSTs in the tropical Indian Ocean,which is the result of a lagged response of positive SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean to El Ni?o events in winter.

Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China

Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951 2004, the F distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during winter and spring, extreme precipitation events occur more often during E1 Nino events than during La Nina events. While during summer and autumn, the opposite is found. The relationship of a two season-lag ENSO and extreme precipitation frequency shows different pattern. Extreme precipitation events occur more often in several regions if an ENSO warm phase happened in the central-eastern tropical Pacific two seasons before. No similar impacts of El Nino and La Nina on the frequency of extreme precipitation events are found.

Comparison of the seasonal evolution of the South Asian high associated with two types of El Ni?o event

EI Nino （EN） episodes can be classified based on their time of onset as spring onset EN （SPEN） events and summer onset EN （SUEN） events. To evaluate the different influences of SPEN and SUEN events on the South Asian high （SAH）, this study compared the seasonal evolution of the SAH （SESAH） associated with SPEN and SUEN events through analysis of geopotential height and zonal wind data derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis-1 and sea surface temperature data obtained from the Hadley Center. The main features of the SESAH during an EN event are similar to its climatological characteristics. Climatologically, the SAH forms in May, strengthens, and moves northwestward in June and July. It does not change much in August, but then it returns south and weakens during September and October. However, its lifespan is shorter and its intensity weaker during EN periods. Furthermore, there are significant differences between the SESAH during SPEN and SUEN events. During a SPEN episode, the movement of the SAH to the northwest during May and June is slower than during a SUEN event, i.e. the SPEN SAH has a shorter lifespan. In comparison with the SUEN SAH, the SPEN SAH in July and September tends more towards the Tibetan high mode rather than the Iranian high mode. The SPEN SAH in October moves southeastward faster than the SUEN SAH, which also indicates that the SAH has a shorter lifespan during a SPEN event than during a SUEN episode.

Weakened interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic since 2000

Recent studies suggest that the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation has weakened since 2000. In this study, the authors report that the interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic has also weakened remarkably since 2000, attributable to the weakened interannual variability in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic and in the associated equatorial low-level zonal wind across South America linking the two ocean basins. Diagnosis of a column-integrated moisture budget indicates that the weakening in the interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall is primarily attributable to the changes in moisture convergence associated with vertical motion. The results highlight the clear weakened interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific-Atlantic climate system since 2000, including the Pacific El Nino, Atlantic Nino, equatorial zonal wind across South America, and rainfall over the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic.

Statistical Characteristics of ENSO Events in CMIP5 Models

By applying the historical-run outputs from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models and the NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST V3 b dataset(ERSST), the characteristics of different types of ENSO in the selected CMIP5 models, including cold-season-matured Eastern Pacific(C-EP) ENSO, warmseason-matured EP(W-EP) ENSO, cold-season-matured Central Pacific(C-CP) ENSO, and warm-season-matured CP(W-CP) ENSO, were examined in comparison with those in the ERSST dataset. The results showed that, in general, consistent with observations, EP ENSO events in most of the model runs were relatively much stronger than CP ENSO events, and cold-season-matured ENSO events were relatively much more frequent than warm-season-matured ENSO events for both EP and CP ENSO events. The composite amplitudes of ENSO events in most of the models were generally weaker than in observations, particularly for EP El Ni?o and CP La Ni?a. Moreover, most of the models successfully reproduced the amplitude asymmetries between El Ni?o and La Ni?a for cold-season-matured EP and CP ENSO events, exhibiting an average stronger/weaker EP El Ni?o/La Ni?a regime and a weaker/stronger CP El Ni?o/La Ni?a regime. Most of the models, however, failed to reproduce the observed regimes of stronger/weaker W-EP El Ni?o/ La Ni?a and weaker/stronger W-CP El Ni?o/La Ni?a.

Revisiting Asymmetry for the Decaying Phases of El Ni?o and La Ni?a

This study investigated the relationship be- tween the asymmetry in the duration of El Nifio and La Nina and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long decaying ENSO cases rather than the short decaying ones. The evolutions of short decaying El Nino and La Nina are approximately a mirror image with a rapid decline in the following summer for the warm and cold events. However, a robust asymmetry was found in long decaying cases, with a prolonged and re-intensified La Nina in the following winter. The asymmetry for long decaying cases starts from the westward extension of the zonal wind anomalies in a mature winter, and is further contributed to by the air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific in the following seasons.

The“Spring Predictability Barrier” Phenomenon of ENSO Predictions Generated with the FGOALS-g Model

Using the sea surface temperature （SST） predicted for the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil （FGOALS-g）, an analysis of the prediction errors was performed for the seasonally dependent predictability of SST anomalies both for neutral years and for the growth/decay phase of El Nino/La Nina events. The study results indicated that for the SST predictions relating to the growth phase and the decay phase of El Nino events, the prediction errors have a seasonally dependent evolution. The largest increase in errors occurred in the spring season, which indicates that a prominent spring predictability barrier （SPB） occurs during an El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） warming episode. Furthermore, the SPB associated with the growth-phase prediction is more prominent than that associated with the decay-phase prediction. However, for the neutral years and for the growth and decay phases of La Nifia events, the SPB phenomenon was less prominent. These results indicate that the SPB phenomenon depends extensively on the ENSO events themselves. In particular, the SPB depends on the phases of the ENSO events. These results may provide useful knowledge for improving ENSO forecasting.

DIAGNOSTIC PREDICTIONS OF SST IN THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BASED ON FUZZY INFERRING AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION

Methods and approaches are discussed that identify and filter off affecting factors (noise) above primary signals,based on the Adaptive-Nework-Based Fuzzy Inference System. Influences of the zonal winds in equatorial eastern and middle/western Pacific on the SSTA in the equatorial region and their contribution to the latter are diagnosed and verified with observations of a number of significant El Nio and La Nia episodes. New viewpoints are propsed. The methods of wavelet decomposition and reconstruction are used to build a predictive model based on independent domains of frequency,which shows some advantages in composite prediction and prediction validity.The methods presented above are of non-linearity, error-allowing and auto-adaptive/learning, in addition to rapid and easy access,illustrative and quantitative presentation,and analyzed results that agree generally with facts. They are useful in diagnosing and predicting the El Nio and La Nia problems that are just roughly described in dynamics.

揭开“小女孩”拉尼娜的神秘面纱

近年来，在媒体的帮助下，尼尔尼诺这个名词已不陌生。但笔者通过街头调查发现，对于拉尼娜这一名词，老百姓还知之甚少．

Influences of Indian Ocean interannual variability on different stages of El Nio: A FOAM1.5 model approach

Both the tropical Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans are active atmosphere-ocean interactive regions with robust interannual variability, which also constitutes a linkage between the two basins in the mode of variability. Using a global atmosphere- ocean coupled model, we conducted two experiments （CTRL and PC） to explore the contributions of Indian Ocean interannual sea surface temperature （SST） modes to the occurrence of E1 Nino events. The results show that interannual variability of the SST in the Indian Ocean induces a rapid growth of E1 Nino events during the boreal autumn in an E1 Nino developing year. However, it weakens E1 Nino events or even promotes cold phase conversions in an E1 Nino decaying year. Therefore, the en- tire period of the E1 Nino is shortened by the interannual variations of the Indian Ocean SST. Specifically, during the E1 Nino developing years, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） events force an anomalous Walker circulation, which then enhances the existing westerly wind anomalies over the west Pacific. This will cause a warmer E1 Nino event, with some modulations by ocean advection and oceanic Rossby and Kelvin waves. However, with the onset of the South Asian monsoon, the Indian Ocean Basin （IOB） warming SST anomalies excite low level easterly wind anomalies over the west tropical Pacific during the El Nino decaying years. As a result, the E1 Nino event is prompted to change from a warm phase to a cold phase. At the same time, an associated atmospheric anticyclone anomaly appears and leads to a decreasing precipitation anomaly over the northwest Pacific. In summary, with remote forcing in the atmospheric circulation, the IOD mode usually affects the E1 Nino during the developing years, whereas the IOB mode affects the E1 Nino during the decaying years.

Phytoplankton and chlorophyll a relationships with ENSO in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

The historical data of phytoplankton and chlorophyll a(Chl a)(1990–2002)obtained during the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition(CHINARE)in the Prydz Bay have been integrated.The results showed that the temperature,salinity,nutrients,and oxygen of seawater changed when El Nino/La Nina occurred.The variation of biological communities reflected the response of ecosystem to environmental changes.During El Ni?o period,Chl a concentration and phytoplankton community structure changed significantly,and the relative proportion of diatoms increased while dinoflagellates decreased.During La Ni?a period,the proportion of diatoms decreased,but the golden-brown algae and blue-green algae increased significantly.The variation of phytoplankton population directly affected the biodiversity of the bay,which were also quite sensitive to the marine environment changes.Meanwhile,the satellite remote sensing data of 2002–2011(December–March)have been used to study the temporal connection change of Chl a and phytoplankton in the Prydz Bay.We found that there were significant differences in the monthly variation characteristics of satellite remote sensing Chl a and sea surface temperature(SST),which had some links with sea ice melting and El Ni?o/La Ni?a events.We found that the start time of bloom advanced,lagged or synchronized with the changes of the SST,and we also found the occurrence time of phytoplankton bloom corresponded with the sea ice melting inner bay.To some extent,this study will help us understand the relationships between ENSO events and the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Ocean.

Observed splitting eastbound propagation of subsurface warm water over the equatorial Pacific in early 2014

El Nino, as characterized by above average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific, is the largest source of natural climate variability from sea- sonal to interannual scales and can profoundly reshape the global weather patterns. Currently, the tropical Pacific Ocean appears to be primed for a potentially significant El Nino event, and some similarities exist between the oce- anic and atmospheric states in early 2014 compared to the observations shortly before the onset of the 1997/1998 Super El Nino event. For example, as one of the most important early signs of El Nino, a splitting eastbound propagation of the subsurface warm water is evident over the equatorial Pacific since January 2014. In this study, the pulses of subsurface warm water are reflected by the Kel- vin waves over the equatorial Pacific estimated from the satellite altimetry data. Results show that the current （i.e., March 2014） Kelvin wave over the equatorial Pacific has achieved the largest amplitude compared to those in the corresponding period prior to the E1 Nifio events since the availability of satellite altimetry, and is even significantly larger than the one that preceded the 1997/1998 Super El Nifio event. As the Kelvin waves can help induce El Nino conditions within about 2--4 months, the current fastest/ strongest eastbound propagation of subsurface warm water indicates that the likelihood of an El Nino event will sig- nificantly increase during the next several months in 2014.