To explore the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, on-road experiments were conducted for measuring the individual vehicle trajectory data associated with novice and experienced drive...To explore the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, on-road experiments were conducted for measuring the individual vehicle trajectory data associated with novice and experienced drivers. The rear-end crash potential probability based on the time to collision was proposed to represent the interpretation of rear-end crash risk.One-way analysis of variance was applied to compare the rearend crash risks for novice and experienced drivers. The rearend crash risk models for novice and experienced drivers were respectively developed to identify the effects of contributing factors on the driver rear-end crash risk. Also, the cumulative residual method was used to examine the goodness-of-fit of models. The results show that there is a significant difference in rear-end risk between the novice and experienced drivers.For the novice drivers, three risk factors including the traffic volume, the number of lanes and gender are found to significantly impact on the rear-end crash risk, while significant impact factors for experienced drivers are the vehicle speed and traffic volume. The rear-end crash risk models perform well based on the existing limited data samples.展开更多
The woodland-steppe ecotone in the. southern Nei Mongol Plateau is located at the northern edge of the east Asian monsoon influences. A marked southeastern - northwestern (SE - NW) precipitation gradient exists in thi...The woodland-steppe ecotone in the. southern Nei Mongol Plateau is located at the northern edge of the east Asian monsoon influences. A marked southeastern - northwestern (SE - NW) precipitation gradient exists in this region. Quantitative reconstruction of palaeo-precipitation of this region is helpful to reveal the development of monsoon climate and to predict die future desertification. Based on modern vegetation and surface pollen studies, a pollen-precipitation transfer function in the study region was established. Pollen data from three sediment sequences within the ecotone were used to reconstruct palaeo-precipitation during the Holocene. The processes of precipitation changes in the three sequences were quite different. There was a tendency of precipitation declined from the onset of the Holocene to 1 100 a BP in Haoluku. But, in Liuzhouwan and Xiaoniuchang, both located south of Haoluku, the annual precipitation reached highest values during 7 800 - 6 200 a BP and 7 200 - 5 000 a BP, respectively. The influences of southwestern (SW) monsoon and the variances of topographical conditions have possibly caused these temporal-spatial variances.展开更多
The decrease of wind velocity （wake losses） in downstream area of wind turbine is generally quantified using wake models. The overall estimated power of wind farm varies according to reliability of wake model used, ...The decrease of wind velocity （wake losses） in downstream area of wind turbine is generally quantified using wake models. The overall estimated power of wind farm varies according to reliability of wake model used, however it＇s unclear which model is most appropriate and able to give a high performance in predicting wind velocity deficit. In this subject, a qualification of three analytical wake models （Jensen, lshihara and Frandsen） based on three principal criteria is presented in this paper： （i） the parsimony which characterizes the inverse of model complexity, （ii） the accuracy of estimation in which wake model is compared with the experimental data and （iii） imprecision that is related to assumptions and uncertainty on the value of variables considered in each model. This qualitative analysis shows the inability of wake models to predict wind velocity deficit due to the big uncertainty of variables considered and it sensitivity to wind farm characteristic.展开更多
We study the interaction between the Moon and the solar wind through a three-dimensional MHD simulation.Three cases have been discussed in which the interplanetary magnetic field lies at 90,180,and 135 to the solar wi...We study the interaction between the Moon and the solar wind through a three-dimensional MHD simulation.Three cases have been discussed in which the interplanetary magnetic field lies at 90,180,and 135 to the solar wind flow,respectively.A wake with low density and low pressure can always be formed behind the Moon.The plasma temperature and magnetic field are enhanced in the central wake,but the field strength is reduced in the surrounding region.A Mach cone is formed by rarefaction waves emanating from the limb.These rarefaction waves propagate via the fast magnetosonic mode with different velocities in different directions relative to the magnetic field.When the interplanetary magnetic field is not parallel to the solar wind flow,the wake shows some asymmetries,with an acceleration region turning up at the center.Finally,the results are compared with the observations by WIND spacecraft.Our calculations agree reasonably well with the observed values.展开更多
In this study,we aim at developing a model for option pricing to reduce the risks associated with Ethiopian coffee price fluctuations.We used daily closed Washed Sidama class A Grade3(WSDA3)coffee price recorded in th...In this study,we aim at developing a model for option pricing to reduce the risks associated with Ethiopian coffee price fluctuations.We used daily closed Washed Sidama class A Grade3(WSDA3)coffee price recorded in the period 31 May 2011 to 30 March 2018 obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange(ECX)market to analyse the price fluctuation.The nature of log-returns of the price is asymmetric(negatively skewed)and exhibits high kurtosis.We used jump diffusion models for modeling and option pricing the coffee price.The method of maximum likelihood is applied to estimate the parameters of the models.We used the root mean square error(RMSE)to test the validation of the models.The values of RMSE for Merton’s and double exponential jump diffusion models are 0.1093 and 0.0783,respectively.These results indicate that the models fit the data very well.We used analytical and Monte Carlo technique to find the call option pricing of WSDA3 price.Based on the empirical results,we concluded that double exponential jump diffusion model is more efficient than Merton’s model for modeling and option pricing of this coffee price.展开更多
An experimental study was conducted to investigate the effects of relative rotation direction on the wake interferences among two tandemwind turbines models.While the oncoming flow conditions were kept in constant dur...An experimental study was conducted to investigate the effects of relative rotation direction on the wake interferences among two tandemwind turbines models.While the oncoming flow conditions were kept in constant during the experiments,turbine power outputs,wind loads acting on the turbines,and wake characteristics behind the turbines were compared quantitatively with turbine models in either co-rotating or counter-rotating configuration.The measurement results reveal that the turbines in counter-rotating would harvest more wind energy from the same oncoming wind,compared with the co-rotating case.While the recovery of the streamwise velocity deficits in the wake flows was found to be almost identical with the turbines operated in either co-rotating or counter-rotating,the significant azimuthal velocity generated in the wake flow behind the upstream turbine is believed to be the reason why the counter-rotating turbines would have a better power production performance.Since the azimuthal flow velocity in the wake flow was found to decrease monotonically with the increasing downstream distance,the benefits of the counter-rotating configuration were found to decrease gradually as the spacing between the tandem turbines increases.While the counter-rotating downstream turbine was found to produce up to 20%more power compared with that of co-rotating configuration with the turbine spacing being about 0.7D,the advantage was found to become almost negligible when the turbine spacing becomes greater than 6.5D.It suggests that the counter-rotating configuration design would be more beneficial to turbines in onshore wind farms due to the smaller turbine spacing(i.e.,~3 rotor diameters for onshore wind farms vs.~7 rotor diameters for offshore wind farms in the prevailing wind direction),especially for those turbines sited over complex terrains with the turbine spacing only about 1–2 rotor diameters.展开更多
Many lizard species use caudal autotomy to escape entrapment. Conspicuous coloration may increase the likelihood of being attacked, but if that attack can be directed towards the autotomous tail this may ultimately in...Many lizard species use caudal autotomy to escape entrapment. Conspicuous coloration may increase the likelihood of being attacked, but if that attack can be directed towards the autotomous tail this may ultimately increase the chances of the lizard surviving a predatory attack. We tested the hypothesis that brightly-colored tails function to divert predatory attention away from the head and body using pairs of blue-tailed and all-brown clay model lizards. Predatory bird attacks on the 24 blue-tailed models occurred sooner （P = 0.001） than attacks on the 24 all-brown models, and over 7 days blue-tailed models were attacked more often than all-brown models （P = 0.007）. Blue-tailed models were, however, more frequently attacked on the tail than other parts of the body （P 〈 0.001）, while all-brown models were more frequently attacked on the head and body （P = 0.019） which would be more likely to be fatal for a real lizard. Our results suggest that models with a blue tail were more conspicuous than all-brown models, attracting attacks sooner and more often, but that the attacks were predominantly directed at the tail. It is better for individuals to be attacked unsuccessfully many times, than successfully just once. Having a brightly-colored tail may, therefore, act as a ＇risky decoy＇. Despite increased conspicuousness, a blue tail increases the likelihood that the lizard would be able to effect escape through caudal autotomy rather than being grabbed by the head or body [Current Zoology 60 （3）： 333-337, 2014].展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51478110)
文摘To explore the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, on-road experiments were conducted for measuring the individual vehicle trajectory data associated with novice and experienced drivers. The rear-end crash potential probability based on the time to collision was proposed to represent the interpretation of rear-end crash risk.One-way analysis of variance was applied to compare the rearend crash risks for novice and experienced drivers. The rearend crash risk models for novice and experienced drivers were respectively developed to identify the effects of contributing factors on the driver rear-end crash risk. Also, the cumulative residual method was used to examine the goodness-of-fit of models. The results show that there is a significant difference in rear-end risk between the novice and experienced drivers.For the novice drivers, three risk factors including the traffic volume, the number of lanes and gender are found to significantly impact on the rear-end crash risk, while significant impact factors for experienced drivers are the vehicle speed and traffic volume. The rear-end crash risk models perform well based on the existing limited data samples.
文摘The woodland-steppe ecotone in the. southern Nei Mongol Plateau is located at the northern edge of the east Asian monsoon influences. A marked southeastern - northwestern (SE - NW) precipitation gradient exists in this region. Quantitative reconstruction of palaeo-precipitation of this region is helpful to reveal the development of monsoon climate and to predict die future desertification. Based on modern vegetation and surface pollen studies, a pollen-precipitation transfer function in the study region was established. Pollen data from three sediment sequences within the ecotone were used to reconstruct palaeo-precipitation during the Holocene. The processes of precipitation changes in the three sequences were quite different. There was a tendency of precipitation declined from the onset of the Holocene to 1 100 a BP in Haoluku. But, in Liuzhouwan and Xiaoniuchang, both located south of Haoluku, the annual precipitation reached highest values during 7 800 - 6 200 a BP and 7 200 - 5 000 a BP, respectively. The influences of southwestern (SW) monsoon and the variances of topographical conditions have possibly caused these temporal-spatial variances.
文摘The decrease of wind velocity （wake losses） in downstream area of wind turbine is generally quantified using wake models. The overall estimated power of wind farm varies according to reliability of wake model used, however it＇s unclear which model is most appropriate and able to give a high performance in predicting wind velocity deficit. In this subject, a qualification of three analytical wake models （Jensen, lshihara and Frandsen） based on three principal criteria is presented in this paper： （i） the parsimony which characterizes the inverse of model complexity, （ii） the accuracy of estimation in which wake model is compared with the experimental data and （iii） imprecision that is related to assumptions and uncertainty on the value of variables considered in each model. This qualitative analysis shows the inability of wake models to predict wind velocity deficit due to the big uncertainty of variables considered and it sensitivity to wind farm characteristic.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40974108)
文摘We study the interaction between the Moon and the solar wind through a three-dimensional MHD simulation.Three cases have been discussed in which the interplanetary magnetic field lies at 90,180,and 135 to the solar wind flow,respectively.A wake with low density and low pressure can always be formed behind the Moon.The plasma temperature and magnetic field are enhanced in the central wake,but the field strength is reduced in the surrounding region.A Mach cone is formed by rarefaction waves emanating from the limb.These rarefaction waves propagate via the fast magnetosonic mode with different velocities in different directions relative to the magnetic field.When the interplanetary magnetic field is not parallel to the solar wind flow,the wake shows some asymmetries,with an acceleration region turning up at the center.Finally,the results are compared with the observations by WIND spacecraft.Our calculations agree reasonably well with the observed values.
文摘In this study,we aim at developing a model for option pricing to reduce the risks associated with Ethiopian coffee price fluctuations.We used daily closed Washed Sidama class A Grade3(WSDA3)coffee price recorded in the period 31 May 2011 to 30 March 2018 obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange(ECX)market to analyse the price fluctuation.The nature of log-returns of the price is asymmetric(negatively skewed)and exhibits high kurtosis.We used jump diffusion models for modeling and option pricing the coffee price.The method of maximum likelihood is applied to estimate the parameters of the models.We used the root mean square error(RMSE)to test the validation of the models.The values of RMSE for Merton’s and double exponential jump diffusion models are 0.1093 and 0.0783,respectively.These results indicate that the models fit the data very well.We used analytical and Monte Carlo technique to find the call option pricing of WSDA3 price.Based on the empirical results,we concluded that double exponential jump diffusion model is more efficient than Merton’s model for modeling and option pricing of this coffee price.
基金supported by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Open Major Basic Research Project(Grant No.20120905)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51666014)
文摘Wind tunnel experiments of the wake characteristics of a two-blade wind turbine, in the downstream region of 0
基金Supports from the Iowa Alliance for Wind Innovation and Novel Development (IAWIND)the National Science Foundation (NSF) (Grant No. CBET-1133751)
文摘An experimental study was conducted to investigate the effects of relative rotation direction on the wake interferences among two tandemwind turbines models.While the oncoming flow conditions were kept in constant during the experiments,turbine power outputs,wind loads acting on the turbines,and wake characteristics behind the turbines were compared quantitatively with turbine models in either co-rotating or counter-rotating configuration.The measurement results reveal that the turbines in counter-rotating would harvest more wind energy from the same oncoming wind,compared with the co-rotating case.While the recovery of the streamwise velocity deficits in the wake flows was found to be almost identical with the turbines operated in either co-rotating or counter-rotating,the significant azimuthal velocity generated in the wake flow behind the upstream turbine is believed to be the reason why the counter-rotating turbines would have a better power production performance.Since the azimuthal flow velocity in the wake flow was found to decrease monotonically with the increasing downstream distance,the benefits of the counter-rotating configuration were found to decrease gradually as the spacing between the tandem turbines increases.While the counter-rotating downstream turbine was found to produce up to 20%more power compared with that of co-rotating configuration with the turbine spacing being about 0.7D,the advantage was found to become almost negligible when the turbine spacing becomes greater than 6.5D.It suggests that the counter-rotating configuration design would be more beneficial to turbines in onshore wind farms due to the smaller turbine spacing(i.e.,~3 rotor diameters for onshore wind farms vs.~7 rotor diameters for offshore wind farms in the prevailing wind direction),especially for those turbines sited over complex terrains with the turbine spacing only about 1–2 rotor diameters.
文摘Many lizard species use caudal autotomy to escape entrapment. Conspicuous coloration may increase the likelihood of being attacked, but if that attack can be directed towards the autotomous tail this may ultimately increase the chances of the lizard surviving a predatory attack. We tested the hypothesis that brightly-colored tails function to divert predatory attention away from the head and body using pairs of blue-tailed and all-brown clay model lizards. Predatory bird attacks on the 24 blue-tailed models occurred sooner （P = 0.001） than attacks on the 24 all-brown models, and over 7 days blue-tailed models were attacked more often than all-brown models （P = 0.007）. Blue-tailed models were, however, more frequently attacked on the tail than other parts of the body （P 〈 0.001）, while all-brown models were more frequently attacked on the head and body （P = 0.019） which would be more likely to be fatal for a real lizard. Our results suggest that models with a blue tail were more conspicuous than all-brown models, attracting attacks sooner and more often, but that the attacks were predominantly directed at the tail. It is better for individuals to be attacked unsuccessfully many times, than successfully just once. Having a brightly-colored tail may, therefore, act as a ＇risky decoy＇. Despite increased conspicuousness, a blue tail increases the likelihood that the lizard would be able to effect escape through caudal autotomy rather than being grabbed by the head or body [Current Zoology 60 （3）： 333-337, 2014].
