基于NCEP再分析资料的月平均500 h Pa高度场、NOAA月平均海温资料和山东省121个测站逐月降水资料,对1961—2015年山东省夏季降水与赤道中东太平洋海温对应关系的年代际变化进行研究。结果表明,山东省夏季降水在1970年代中期以及1980年...基于NCEP再分析资料的月平均500 h Pa高度场、NOAA月平均海温资料和山东省121个测站逐月降水资料,对1961—2015年山东省夏季降水与赤道中东太平洋海温对应关系的年代际变化进行研究。结果表明,山东省夏季降水在1970年代中期以及1980年代末、1990年代初发生了明显的转变。其中,在1970年代中期以前,山东省夏季降水量为线性减少趋势,总量偏多,而在1990年代以后,无明显变化趋势。山东省夏季降水与赤道中东太平洋前期冬季海温的关系在转变前后有明显差异:在1970年代中期之前,二者为反位相关系;1990年代之后,二者转为同位相关系。此外滑动相关结果也显示,1990年代以前,山东省夏季降水与Ni1o3区前期冬季海温为负相关关系,1990年代之后,二者为正相关关系。进一步研究发现,山东省夏季降水与西太平洋副热带高压之间的相关关系也发生了年代际变化:在前一时期,山东省夏季降水偏多年份的水汽主要来自东亚夏季风的输送;在后一时期,山东省夏季降水偏多的年份水汽主要来自El Ni1o次年夏季副热带高压西侧偏南气流的输送。展开更多
The pentad average minimum outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data over the northern South China Sea (SCS) are selected as indexes to analyze the intensity of the convection connected with the SCS monsoon onset. Statis...The pentad average minimum outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data over the northern South China Sea (SCS) are selected as indexes to analyze the intensity of the convection connected with the SCS monsoon onset. Statistic analysis demonstrates that the index can account for the intensity of the SCS monsoon about, at least, 75%. A significant negative correlation (confident level over 90%) between Shandong’s summer rainfall and the index is found only in the period of 24-26 pentads and limited to the area above the deeper water basin of the SCS (10°-20°N, 110°-117.5°E). Thus the minimum OLR over the deeper water basin during 24-26 pentads can be used as a valuable predictor for the long lead forecast of the precipitation. The 500 hPa geopotential height data in the Northern Hemisphere for the period from 1951 to 2000 are used in order to characterize the physical mechanisms involved. The composite anomalies of the 500 hPa level allow for the identification and detection of the teleconnection of the East Asia North America (EAP) pattern that is responsible to some extent for the interannual variability of the precipitation of Shandong Province. Besides, the interannual differences of the intraseasonal variations (ISV) of OLR and their northward transmission probably make a contribution to the position of the subtropical high which is vital for the summer rainfall in the province.展开更多
This study focuses on deep convection anomalies in tropical regions in winter-spring period and their possible influence on the following summer rainfall in Shandong province. On the basis of monthly precipitation wet...This study focuses on deep convection anomalies in tropical regions in winter-spring period and their possible influence on the following summer rainfall in Shandong province. On the basis of monthly precipitation wet and dry summers in Shandong are defined according to a precipitation index. Then monthly OLR data, observed by NOAA satellites, are used to diagnose the features of deep convection for both wet and dry summers. It is found that negative anomalies seem dominant prior to wet summers, while large areas of positive anomalies appear prior to dry summers in tropical oceans. The differences are remarkable especially in the western, middle and eastern tropical Pacific as well as in the tropical Indian Ocean. Correlative analysis confirms the relations between OLR and precipitation. Subtropical High, which plays an essential role in summer rainfall, is also connected with the deep conviction. Altogether eight EOF-CCA forecast models are established on the basis of the above study. The assessment of the models relies on the gauge observing precipitation in 1997 and 1998. The results show that models using spring OLR data appear to be more practicable than those using winter OLR data, and the models established with OLR in western Pacific and the Indian Ocean perform better than the others.展开更多
文摘基于NCEP再分析资料的月平均500 h Pa高度场、NOAA月平均海温资料和山东省121个测站逐月降水资料,对1961—2015年山东省夏季降水与赤道中东太平洋海温对应关系的年代际变化进行研究。结果表明,山东省夏季降水在1970年代中期以及1980年代末、1990年代初发生了明显的转变。其中,在1970年代中期以前,山东省夏季降水量为线性减少趋势,总量偏多,而在1990年代以后,无明显变化趋势。山东省夏季降水与赤道中东太平洋前期冬季海温的关系在转变前后有明显差异:在1970年代中期之前,二者为反位相关系;1990年代之后,二者转为同位相关系。此外滑动相关结果也显示,1990年代以前,山东省夏季降水与Ni1o3区前期冬季海温为负相关关系,1990年代之后,二者为正相关关系。进一步研究发现,山东省夏季降水与西太平洋副热带高压之间的相关关系也发生了年代际变化:在前一时期,山东省夏季降水偏多年份的水汽主要来自东亚夏季风的输送;在后一时期,山东省夏季降水偏多的年份水汽主要来自El Ni1o次年夏季副热带高压西侧偏南气流的输送。
基金sponsored by the program‘The comprehensive research on the Nansha islands and the adjacent sea’ratified by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2001DIA50041)
文摘The pentad average minimum outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data over the northern South China Sea (SCS) are selected as indexes to analyze the intensity of the convection connected with the SCS monsoon onset. Statistic analysis demonstrates that the index can account for the intensity of the SCS monsoon about, at least, 75%. A significant negative correlation (confident level over 90%) between Shandong’s summer rainfall and the index is found only in the period of 24-26 pentads and limited to the area above the deeper water basin of the SCS (10°-20°N, 110°-117.5°E). Thus the minimum OLR over the deeper water basin during 24-26 pentads can be used as a valuable predictor for the long lead forecast of the precipitation. The 500 hPa geopotential height data in the Northern Hemisphere for the period from 1951 to 2000 are used in order to characterize the physical mechanisms involved. The composite anomalies of the 500 hPa level allow for the identification and detection of the teleconnection of the East Asia North America (EAP) pattern that is responsible to some extent for the interannual variability of the precipitation of Shandong Province. Besides, the interannual differences of the intraseasonal variations (ISV) of OLR and their northward transmission probably make a contribution to the position of the subtropical high which is vital for the summer rainfall in the province.
基金Physical Causes of Short-term Drought and Floods Climate in Shandong Province and the Prediction a sub-subject in the item of Studies on Short-term Climate Prediction System in China (96-908-05-06-10)
文摘This study focuses on deep convection anomalies in tropical regions in winter-spring period and their possible influence on the following summer rainfall in Shandong province. On the basis of monthly precipitation wet and dry summers in Shandong are defined according to a precipitation index. Then monthly OLR data, observed by NOAA satellites, are used to diagnose the features of deep convection for both wet and dry summers. It is found that negative anomalies seem dominant prior to wet summers, while large areas of positive anomalies appear prior to dry summers in tropical oceans. The differences are remarkable especially in the western, middle and eastern tropical Pacific as well as in the tropical Indian Ocean. Correlative analysis confirms the relations between OLR and precipitation. Subtropical High, which plays an essential role in summer rainfall, is also connected with the deep conviction. Altogether eight EOF-CCA forecast models are established on the basis of the above study. The assessment of the models relies on the gauge observing precipitation in 1997 and 1998. The results show that models using spring OLR data appear to be more practicable than those using winter OLR data, and the models established with OLR in western Pacific and the Indian Ocean perform better than the others.
