Downscaling and Disaggregating NAO-conflict Nexus in Pre-industrial Europe

Recently, the desiccation effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) is found to be positively correlated with violent conflict in pre-industrial Europe, with agricultural shrinkage and its subsequent economic shocks to be their causal link. However, it remains unexplored whether the correlation persists if the study period is extended backward in time, a different definition of violent conflict is applied, or the relationship is examined at lower geographic levels. In this study, we based on 835 internal disturbance incidents in Europe during 1049–1800 to conduct long-temporal and multi-scalar examination on the NAO-conflict nexus. ′Time-series′ and ′panel data′ disaggregation approaches, together with Granger Causality, Multiple Regression, and Survival Analyses were applied to verify the nexus quantitatively. Results show that the positive NAO-conflict correlation was significant at the continent and physiographic zone levels. During the positive NAO phases, the annual probability of internal disturbance outbreak increased by 70.0% in the southern Europe and the Mediterranean, a zone most affected by the NAO-induced desiccation effect. Yet, the NAO-conflict correlation was rather inconsistent when it was downscaled to the sub-regional level. Moreover, the NAO-conflict correlation was inflated under the time-series approach, while the panel data approach demonstrated the region-specific nature of the NAO forcing more clearly. The associated implications in examining climate-conflict nexus are discussed. Our findings may be crucial in examining violent conflict in the northwestern Africa, a highly agricultural region affected by the NAO.

Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming targets

The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ℃. However, for climate mitigation and adaption efforts, further studies are still needed to understand the regional consequences between the two global warming limits. Here we provide an assessment of changes in temperature extremes over China （relative to 1986-2005） at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming levels （relative to 1861-1900） by using the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） models under three RCP scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5）. Results show that the increases in mean temperature and temperature extremes over China are greater than that in global mean temperature. With respect to 1986-2005, the temperature of hottest day （TXx） and coldest night （TNn） are projected to increase about 1/1.6 ℃ and 1.1/1.8 ℃, whereas warm days （TX90p） and warm spell duration （WSDI） will increase about 7.5/13.8% and 15/30 d for the 1.5/2 ℃ global warming target, respectively. Under an additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, the projected increases of temperature in warmest day/night and coldest day/night are both more than 0.5 ℃ across almost the whole China. In Northwest China, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, the projected changes are particularly sensitive to the additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, for example, multi-model mean increase in coldest day （TXn） and coldest night （TNn） will be about 2 times higher than a change of 0.5 ℃ global warming. Although the area-averaged changes in temperature extremes are very similar for different scenarios, spatial hotspot still exists, such as in Northwest China and North China, the increases in temperatures are apparently larger in RCP8.5 than that in RCP4.5.

Process optimization study on the carbonylation of methyl acetate

Acetic anhydride is the important organic chemical raw material, and is used widely in chemical industry,pharmaceutical industry, dyes, spices and other fields. In this paper, the process of carbonylation of methyl acetate in rhodium iodine catalyst system was studied, and the suitable reaction conditions were determined.At the same time, the kinetic model was established. The optimum reaction conditions were as follows： the reaction pressure was 5 MPa, the hydrogen content was 8%, the amount of iodomethane was 15%, the amount of lithium iodide was 3%, the reaction temperature was 150 ℃ and the reaction time is 3 h. Under the above reaction conditions, the selectivity of the reaction is close to 100% and the conversion is as high as 92%. The macroscopic kinetic model of the reaction was established in the temperature range of 120 ℃–150 ℃. The reaction is an irreversible reaction without the formation of by-products and the dynamic equation is also given in the Conclusions section.

Micromixing efficiency in a T-shaped confined impinging jet reactor

Confined impinging jet reactor(CIJR)offers advantages for chemical rapid processes and has become an important new reactor used in the chemical industry.The micromixing efficiency in a T-shaped CIJR for two tubes of inner diameter of 3 mm was studied by using a parallel competing iodide–iodate reaction as the working system.In this work,the effects of different operating conditions,such as impinging velocity and acid concentration,on segregation index were investigated.In addition,the effects of the inner nozzles diameter and the distance L between the jet axis and the top wall of the mixing chamber on the micromixing efficiency were also considered.It is concluded that the best range of L in this CIJR is 6.5–12.5 mm.Based on the incorporation model,the estimated minimum micromixing time tmof CIJR approximately equals to 2×10-4s.These experimental results indicate clearly that CIJR possesses a much better micromixing performance compared with the conventional stirred tank(micromixing time of 2×10-3to 2×10-2s).Hence,it can be envisioned that CIJR has more promising applications in various industrial processes.

Viability of Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 in the Presence of Williopsis saturnus vat. suaveolens

Maintaining the viability of probiotic microorganisms from production to consumption has long been a technological challenge for the food industry. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the in vitro interaction between Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 and Williopsis saturnus var. suaveolens and the effect of this yeast on acidification kinetics, viability ofLactobacillus acidophilus and post-acidification in fermented milk during refrigerated storage at 5℃. The in vitro study showed a positive interaction between the acid cell free-supernatant （CFS） ofprobiotic bacteria La-5 and the yeast. The addition of W. saturnus var. suaveolens increased the fermentation time due to consumption of the organic acids produced by L. acidophilus. During the refrigerated storage of the samples, the presence of the yeast increased the viability of L. acidophilus and reduced post-acidification. However, the mechanism of such interaction of bacteria and yeast is not fully understood.

Spatio-temporal Differences and Driving Forces of Air Quality in Chinese Cities

Deterioration of city air quality is the serious problem in the process of rapid urbanization and economic development in China. Taking 74 cities that have implemented the new Ambient Air Quality Standards （GB3095- 2012） since 2013 as examples, using statistical and ArcGIS spatial analysis method, the multi-scale temporal and spatial variations characteristics and the impact of social and economic factors on urban air quality variations, are analyzed in this paper. The main research conclusions are as follows：（1） Air quality in Chinese cities shows very significant seasonal variations, with higher air quality in summer and autumn, and lower air quality in spring and winter; （2） Seen from a daily pollution perspective, air pollution is very serious and will tend to be more serious in the future; （3） Seen from an hourly variation perspective, urban air quality is time coupled with social production and urban living; （4） The overall spatial pattern of urban air quality is high in the east and north and low in the west and south, but with an obvious trend towards regional integration. （5） Cities in different regions have different factors that cause air quality variations. In general, urbanization level and energy consumption per GDP are the common factors.

历史耐心

不久前,在中国召开的达沃斯论坛上,日本三菱集团的代表向中国总理询问,面对中国经济下滑,拉动中国经济的动力何在?总理回答"双创"。中国实现现代化,首先选择的是走工业化道路,经济发展的动力,也主要靠工业来推动。从产业结构角度分析,第一产业主要是指农业,第二产业主要包括工业和建筑业,第三产业是指为生产和生活提供服务的行业。中国第二产业在国内的生产总值占比始终处于首位,1980年、1990年。

寻找产业发展的“元宝曲线”

中航工业董事长林左鸣认为,欧美国家产业不是"空洞化",而是"内核化",其形成了由金融服务业和信息服务业为"微笑曲线"、高科技产业为"倒微笑曲线"的产业发展"元宝曲线"。中国无须担心所谓的产业空心化,应当努力寻找到自身的产业发展"元宝曲线",实现"自工业化"的变革。