表面气温内部变率估算方法的比较研究

本文利用37个CMIP5模式和CESM(Community Earth System Model)包含40个成员的超级集合试验的表面气温预估数据,比较了工业革命前气候参照试验、多项式拟合法和方差分析方法这三种目前在国际上运用较多的方法所估算的表面气温内部变率的异同,分析了内部变率的估算对气候预估中信号萌芽时间(TOE)的影响。结果表明:若采用CMIP5多模式集合,则工业革命前气候参照试验和多项式拟合法都是估算内部变率的合理方法,而方差分析方法则由于包含模式性能自身的影响会夸大内部变率故不推荐使用。内部变率的全球分布呈现出极向强化的现象,中高纬度地区的内部变率幅度远大于热带、副热带地区。内部变率受不同排放情景的影响较小,且随时间无显著变化,但方差分析方法估算的内部变率在热带地区容易受到排放情景的影响。若基于类似CESM这样的单个气候模式的超级集合模拟试验来估算内部变率,三种方法估算的结果相似。不同方法估算的内部变率对TOE的影响主要位于北大西洋拉布拉多海、南大洋威德尔海和罗斯海等邻近海洋深对流区。对于中国区域平均来说,基于CESM超级集合模拟试验,三种方法估算的内部变率与强迫信号之比都小于15%;对CMIP5多模式集合,采用工业革命前气候参照试验和多项式拟合法得到的结果与此接近,但若采用方差分析方法则显著高估内部变率的作用。

The Research Progress of CO2 Capture with Ionic Liquids

Due to their negligible volatility,reasonable thermal stability,strong dissolubility,wide liquid range and tunability of structure and property,ionic liquids have been regarded as emerging candidate reagents for CO2 cap-ture from industries gases.In this review,the research progresses in CO2 capture using conventional ionic liquids,functionalized ionic liquids,supported ionic-liquids membranes,polymerized ionic liquids and mixtures of ionic liquids with some molecular solvents were investigated and reviewed.Discussion of relevant research fields was presented and the future developments were suggested.

Combating climate change calls for a global technological cooperation system built on the concept of ecological civilization

Climate change has been considered as the most paramount global environmental problem and the biggest externality throughout the history of human development. Accordingly, the world is facing unprecedented technological innovation and collaborative demands to deal with climate change. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, a long-term vision of technology development and transfer implementation was proposed, and policy and financial support for technological innovation in the area of climate change was advocated. These terms aim to enable developing countries to acquire the necessary technology in the early stage of the technology cycle to address climate change challenge. However, the traditional technological innovation and cooperation mode based on industrial civilization can hardly meet the technical demands of global climate protection. To ensure the continuous development and deployment of technology in a required scale and pace, a new global technical cooperation system is proposed to develop based on the philosophy of ecological civilization. The core contents of this system are supposed be as follows:to implement all-win cooperation targets, adhering to cooperation principles of Eco-man, adopt cooperation content that reflects synergy, pursue cooperation based on mutual trust, encourage participation of multiple actors, and promote sharing of cooperative outputs.

Teleconnection between Winter Arctic Oscillation and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon in the Pre-Industry Simulation of a Coupled Climate Model

A 600-year pre-industrial simulation with Bergen Climate Model(BCM)Version 2 is used to investigate the linkage between winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the Southeast Asian summer monsoon(SEASM)on the inter-decadal timescale.The results indicate an in-phase relationship between the AO and SEASM with periods of approximately 16–32 and 60–80 years.During the positive phase of winter AO,an anomalous surface anti-cyclonic atmosphere circulation appears over North Pacific in winter.The corresponding anomalies in ocean circulation and surface heat flux,particularly the latent and sensible heat flux,resemble a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-like sea surface temperature(SST)pattern.The AO-associated PDO-like winter SST can persist into summer and can therefore lead to inter-decadal variability of summer monsoon rainfall in East and Southeast Asia.

Attribution of the Present-Day Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing to Anthropogenic Emission Sectors

In this study,a general circulation model coupled with a gas-phase module and an aerosol chemistry module was employed to investigate the impacts of anthropogenic emission sectors on aerosol direct radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere （TOA） in the present-day climate.The predictions were based on the emission inventories developed in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）.Six emission sectors-agriculture,open biomass burning,domestic activities,industry,energy generation,and transport-were considered,with a special focus on nitrate aerosol that shows large uncertainties in current models.The results show that the energy sector accounts for the largest contribution （-222 mW m-2） to global aerosol radiative forcing,with substantial negative forcing from sulfate.Inclusion of nitrate results in the transport sector yielding a global nitrate radiative forcing of-92 mW rm-2 and an internally mixed aerosol radiative forcing of-85 mW m-2,which is opposite to the positive radiative forcing predicted in the past,indicating that the transport emissions could not be a potential control target to counteract climate warming as expected before.The maximum change in nitrate burden is found to be associated with agricultural emissions,which accounts for about 75％ of global ammonia gas （NH3） emissions.Agricultural emissions account for global nitrate radiative forcing of-186 mW m-2 and internally mixed aerosols direct radiative forcing of-149 mW m-2.Such agricultural radiative forcing exceeds the radiative forcing of the industrial sector and is responsible for a large portion of negative radiative forcing over the Northern Hemisphere.

Research on low-carbon development of electric power industry:from the perspectives of public policy

It is a fundamental way to achieve sustainable development and inclusive growth that China takes the low-carbon development path.And low-carbon development is an effective way to respond to many threats,including global climate anomalies,environmental degradation,and energy shortage.Low-carbon economy is policy economy to a large extent.Although the external environment demands low-carbon development of electric power industry,enterprises lack intrinsic motivation.Electric power industry is the pillar industry of China,and is one of the key industries for China's low-carbon development.The government needs to ensure its dominant position in the low-carbon development of electric power industry,and reform the government performance management system and promote the planning and management of electric power industry through appropriate public policy,in order to adjust the structure of the electric power industry and take a low-carbon development road with Chinese characteristics.

21世纪中小企业面临的新挑战

２１世纪中小企业面临的新挑战世界中小企业协会秘书长博士阿格拉瓦编者按：中国乡镇企业蓬勃发展已经十五年，取得了举世瞩目的成就，究其主体多为中小企业，乡使企业今后的发展如何与全世界中小企业发展大趋势保持一致，进入“全球化”应该是乡镇企业战略发展的主要对策...

雾霾·灭绝·碳排放

前有厄尔尼诺来袭,后有第1号台风"米克拉"考验菲律宾,世界气象组织(World Meteorological Organization,简称WMO)这段时间的工作似乎并不清闲——不,应该说,随着近几年气候问题的日益严重,他们从未有过清闲的时候。就像每年3月23日的世界气象日主题都大同小异一样。就各国的气候专家来说,今年的当务之急,或许依然是解决全国温室气体的过量排放问题。

The potential connection between China surface air temperature and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) in the Pre-industrial Period

One recent study by using instrumental records suggested the correlation between East Asian surface air temperatures(EATs)and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)reaches the maximum when the former leads the latter by 5–7 years.This seems to disagree with a previous well-realized point that the AMO modulates the decadal variation of EATs,since the atmosphere responds swiftly to sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)if therein.It implies that the AMO-EATs correlation should reach the maximum when they are simultaneous or the AMO leads EATs slightly,rather than that the EATs lead the AMO.Thus,this poses an issue about the reality of the newly found lead-lag correlation.Because the instrumental record in the natural climate system may be contaminated by human activities,the EATs-AMO lead-lag correlation derived from the instrumental records may not be a realistic connection of the natural climate system.Thus,whether the connection also exists in the proxies prior to the industrial is essential to answer the issue.In this study the EATs-AMO lead-lag connection is analyzed by using the reconstructed data in the last 500 years,together with the control experimental data with the prescribed pre-industrial forcing in a multiple of coupled climate system models,which attend the international CMIP5 program.The results suggest that the connection,the EATs lead the AMO,also exists in the period from the Little Ice Age(LIA)to the industrial,1500–1860AD.Therefore,the connection may be realistic in the natural climate system.The mechanisms for the connection are then discussed briefly.The results from this paper provide some insights into the connection of the AMO with East Asian climate.

Progress in Research on the Influences of Climatic Changes on the Industrial Economy in China

Global climate changes have led to ocean acidification,ice and snow melting,a continuous rise in temperature,and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events,with profound impacts on the social economic system.With the aggravation from climate changes,even the industrial fields with a relatively strong resistance to climatic changes have also suffered serious losses.At present,the vulnerability of the industrial field is growing,and the absolute economic losses are increasing.The quantitative evaluation of these industrial economic losses is therefore an important basis for formulating policies to tackle global climate change,and analyzing the current research progress can provide ideas and methods for the effective evaluation of the industrial economy.Therefore,in this paper,we summarized both the positive and negative effects of climate changes on the industrial fields and found that the influences of climatic changes on different industrial sectors are slightly variable.For example,while the mining industry,so far,has positively responded to the changing climate,severe weather events such as storms,drought,and rain could severely impede the normal production and business operation activities of the mining industry in the future.The manufacturing industry mostly involves indoor jobs,which are relatively resistant to extreme weather events,and some industries have complex response mechanisms.In terms of the construction industry,its losses are mainly indirect through increased electricity costs.The production and supply industries for electricity,heat,and water would suffer transmission supply losses in extreme weather events;and as the largest carbon emission industries,the costs of emission reduction would affect the economic growth of this sector in the short term.Overall,the industrial sectors pay relatively high costs for climate change mitigation and adaptation,and therefore,the quantitative evaluation of industrial economic losses through models is crucial for both the development of reasonable policies and ensuring a smooth and consistent growth of the industrial economy.

Additional risk in extreme precipitation in China from 1.5℃to 2.0℃global warming levels

To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 ℃ and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 ℃ above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 ℃ to 2 ℃ . Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events(longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively.The projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios.