目的旨在进一步了解2020年海南省常住居民死因监测数据的漏报情况,探索行动型国家死亡原因分析工具(Analysis of Causes of National Deaths for Action,ANACONDA)在死因监测质量分析中的应用。方法数据来源于海南省疾病预防控制中心人...目的旨在进一步了解2020年海南省常住居民死因监测数据的漏报情况,探索行动型国家死亡原因分析工具(Analysis of Causes of National Deaths for Action,ANACONDA)在死因监测质量分析中的应用。方法数据来源于海南省疾病预防控制中心人口死亡信息监测管理系统,主要为2020年1月1日—2020年12月31日海南省19个市县死因监测点上报的33418例死亡数据。所有数据通过ANACONDA进行统计分析,死因分类采用国际疾病分类第10版(ICD-10)。结果2020年海南省报告死亡个案共33418例,粗死亡率3.6‰,85岁以下男性死亡占比均高于女性,而在85岁及以上死亡占比则相反。死因监测质量分析显示,2020年海南省死亡监测存在漏报情况,死因漏报率为30.1%;三大类死因各年龄组构成与全球疾病负担区域各年龄组构成均存在差异,中高年龄组的死因误报情况较为显著;2020年海南省死亡数据生命统计性能指标整体得分为52.8,死因的报告质量得分为85.5,可使用的具体死因的级别得分为88.4,改善死因数据质量优先行动区域的死亡报告的完整性所占份额最大,其次是死因报告的质量;男性与女性漏报调查后的具体死因构成比存在差异,但其顺位变化不明显。结论2020年海南省死因监测数据的完整性较低,建议优先改善死亡数据报告的完整性,加强死因监测系统的培训力度,同时定期进行死因监测系统评价与监督。展开更多
A disorder situation of traffic operation always appears in on-ramp junction area of urban freeway,because the operation action for vehicles presents the weaving condition,especially for different vehicle types.Based ...A disorder situation of traffic operation always appears in on-ramp junction area of urban freeway,because the operation action for vehicles presents the weaving condition,especially for different vehicle types.Based on the analysis on the cellular automata theory,and combining with on-site survey data,several key parameters were defined,namely,cellular length,cellular speed,cellular acceleration,updating time interval.In addition,cellular acceleration rule,cellular deceleration rule,random rule,lane-changing rule and other micro-simulation rules were set,and cellular automaton micro-simulation model was set up.Further-more,a micro-simulation module was developed for traffic operation actions of on-ramp junction with Matlab toolbox.Finally,a simulation experiment for traffic operation reliability was done with this micro-simulation module,and the situation of change for on-ramp junction area was obtained under the conditions of different mainline design speed,acceleration lane length,vehicle generation probability and lane-changing probability.The results show that operation reliability for on-ramp junction is determined by the parameters of the probability of vehicle generation and the length of acceleration lane,especially for on-ramp.展开更多
Transformers utilizing HTS （high temperature superconductors） are considered as a timely invention. The number of power transformers age more than 30 years old and nearing retirement is increasing. If this window of...Transformers utilizing HTS （high temperature superconductors） are considered as a timely invention. The number of power transformers age more than 30 years old and nearing retirement is increasing. If this window of opportunity is not grabbed, there would be great reluctance to replace recently installed highly priced capital asset. Major projects of developing HTS transformers are well making progress in the United States, Europe, Japan, Korea and China which indicate the interest. The efforts must have been appropriately verified through the economic interest of the discounted losses. Consequently, it is very important to develop an understanding of the fundamental HTS transformer design issues that can provide guidance for developing practical devices of interest to the electric utility industry. The parameters of HTS transformer need to be validated before any effort is to carry out to model the behaviour of a distribution network under a range of conditions. The predicted performance and reliability of HTS transformers can then be verified through the network modelling and analysis calculation. The ultimate purpose is to furnish electric utilities precise information as to which HTS transformers work under various applications with greater technical efficiency and proven reliability.展开更多
There is a long and rich tradition in the social sciences of using models of collective behavior in animals as jump- ing-off points for the study of human behavior, including collective human behavior. Here, we come a...There is a long and rich tradition in the social sciences of using models of collective behavior in animals as jump- ing-off points for the study of human behavior, including collective human behavior. Here, we come at the problem in a slightly different fashion. We ask whether models of collective human behavior have anything to offer those who study animal behavior. Our brief example of tipping points, a model first developed in the physical sciences and later used in the social sciences, suggests that the analysis of human collective behavior does indeed have considerable to offer展开更多
文摘目的旨在进一步了解2020年海南省常住居民死因监测数据的漏报情况,探索行动型国家死亡原因分析工具(Analysis of Causes of National Deaths for Action,ANACONDA)在死因监测质量分析中的应用。方法数据来源于海南省疾病预防控制中心人口死亡信息监测管理系统,主要为2020年1月1日—2020年12月31日海南省19个市县死因监测点上报的33418例死亡数据。所有数据通过ANACONDA进行统计分析,死因分类采用国际疾病分类第10版(ICD-10)。结果2020年海南省报告死亡个案共33418例,粗死亡率3.6‰,85岁以下男性死亡占比均高于女性,而在85岁及以上死亡占比则相反。死因监测质量分析显示,2020年海南省死亡监测存在漏报情况,死因漏报率为30.1%;三大类死因各年龄组构成与全球疾病负担区域各年龄组构成均存在差异,中高年龄组的死因误报情况较为显著;2020年海南省死亡数据生命统计性能指标整体得分为52.8,死因的报告质量得分为85.5,可使用的具体死因的级别得分为88.4,改善死因数据质量优先行动区域的死亡报告的完整性所占份额最大,其次是死因报告的质量;男性与女性漏报调查后的具体死因构成比存在差异,但其顺位变化不明显。结论2020年海南省死因监测数据的完整性较低,建议优先改善死亡数据报告的完整性,加强死因监测系统的培训力度,同时定期进行死因监测系统评价与监督。
基金Project(HIT.NSRIF.2009102) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in ChinaProject(11541295) supported by the Scientific Research Fund of Heilongjiang Provincial Education Department of ChinaProject(20100471029) supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
文摘A disorder situation of traffic operation always appears in on-ramp junction area of urban freeway,because the operation action for vehicles presents the weaving condition,especially for different vehicle types.Based on the analysis on the cellular automata theory,and combining with on-site survey data,several key parameters were defined,namely,cellular length,cellular speed,cellular acceleration,updating time interval.In addition,cellular acceleration rule,cellular deceleration rule,random rule,lane-changing rule and other micro-simulation rules were set,and cellular automaton micro-simulation model was set up.Further-more,a micro-simulation module was developed for traffic operation actions of on-ramp junction with Matlab toolbox.Finally,a simulation experiment for traffic operation reliability was done with this micro-simulation module,and the situation of change for on-ramp junction area was obtained under the conditions of different mainline design speed,acceleration lane length,vehicle generation probability and lane-changing probability.The results show that operation reliability for on-ramp junction is determined by the parameters of the probability of vehicle generation and the length of acceleration lane,especially for on-ramp.
文摘Transformers utilizing HTS （high temperature superconductors） are considered as a timely invention. The number of power transformers age more than 30 years old and nearing retirement is increasing. If this window of opportunity is not grabbed, there would be great reluctance to replace recently installed highly priced capital asset. Major projects of developing HTS transformers are well making progress in the United States, Europe, Japan, Korea and China which indicate the interest. The efforts must have been appropriately verified through the economic interest of the discounted losses. Consequently, it is very important to develop an understanding of the fundamental HTS transformer design issues that can provide guidance for developing practical devices of interest to the electric utility industry. The parameters of HTS transformer need to be validated before any effort is to carry out to model the behaviour of a distribution network under a range of conditions. The predicted performance and reliability of HTS transformers can then be verified through the network modelling and analysis calculation. The ultimate purpose is to furnish electric utilities precise information as to which HTS transformers work under various applications with greater technical efficiency and proven reliability.
文摘There is a long and rich tradition in the social sciences of using models of collective behavior in animals as jump- ing-off points for the study of human behavior, including collective human behavior. Here, we come at the problem in a slightly different fashion. We ask whether models of collective human behavior have anything to offer those who study animal behavior. Our brief example of tipping points, a model first developed in the physical sciences and later used in the social sciences, suggests that the analysis of human collective behavior does indeed have considerable to offer
