湖北省房地产投资与GDP的协整关系分析

本文运用协整检验、误差修正模型及Granger因果关系检验对湖北省房地产投资和GDP之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)房地产投资与GDP之间存在长期的协整关系;(2)房地产投资的短期波动对GDP有显著的正影响;(3)在短时期内,随着置信水平的提高,两者之间由单向因果关系变为双向因果关系,但长期内,两者不具有因果关系。

人民币实际汇率波动对中日双边贸易影响的动态效应分析

本文分析了人民币汇率波动性及其对中国对日进出口的长短期影响。结果表明,中日实际收入水平的提高均增加双边贸易出口,但中国对日出口实际收入效应远大于日本对华出口实际收入效应。短期内,人民币汇率及其波动性变化对中日双边进出口变动的贡献度相对较小。汇率制度改革对中日双边出口均起到推动作用,但中国对日出口所受推动作用远大于日本对华出口。因此,日本经济良好运行,人民币对日元汇率保持稳定,以及汇率制度改革均对中国促进对日出口,缩小贸易逆差具有重要意义。

Cointegration analysis with structural changes between consumption and economic growth in China

In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.

GRA BASED ANALYSIS ON FACTORS INFLUENCING CO_2 EMISSIONS IN CHINA

How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2 emissions has been an academic focus in China recently. The factors influencing CO2 emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target. Firstly, three influential factors, the energy consumption, the proportion of tertiary industry in gross domestic product （GDP）, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade, are carefully selected, since all of them have closer grey relation with China＇s COz emissions compared with others when the grey relational analysis （GRA） method is applied. The study highlights co-integration relation of these four variables using the co-integration analysis method. And then a long-term co-integration equation and a short-term error correction model of China＇s CO2 emissions are devel- oped. Finally, the comparison is exerted between the forecast value and the actual value of China＇s CO2 emissions based on error correction model. The results and the relevant statistics tests show that the pro- posed model has better explanation capability and credibility.

Rank-Defect Adjustment Model for Survey-Line Systematic Errors in Marine Survey Net

In this paper,the structure of systematic and random errors in marine survey net are discussed in detail and the adjustment method for observations of marine survey net is studied,in which the rank_defect characteristic is discovered first up to now.On the basis of the survey_line systematic error model,the formulae of the rank_defect adjustment model are deduced according to modern adjustment theory.An example of calculations with really observed data is carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of this adjustment model.Moreover,it is proved that the semi_systematic error correction method used at present in marine gravimetry in China is a special case of the adjustment model presented in this paper.

Effects of coal prices on merchandise prices in China

Coal is the principal form of energy used in China. Hence, coal price variations are expected to have some influence on merchandise prices. Monthly data from January, 2002, to October, 2010, were used to construct a varying-parameter state space model, and an error correction model, to estimate the influence of coat prices on Chinese merchandise prices. The time lag and the dynamic relationship were determined from the data. A long term equilibrium relationship between coal price and the PPI, and the CPI, can be observed. The long term influence of coal price fluctuations on the PPI is 0.263%. The corresponding value for the CPI is 0.157%. The PPI shows an influence from coal price change in the first period of observation： by eight periods the influence is obvious, after which it diminishes. The effect of coal price change on the CPI is rather weak and has no long term memory. Analysis of variance shows a similar situation. The elas- ticity coefficient of coal prices on the CPI, or the PPI, fluctuates over the 2002-2004 period. From 2002 to 2007 the influence elasticity on the CPI declined and subsequently levelled off after 2009.

Production response to price risk and market liberalization of Nigerian major agricultural crops

This study models supply response for major agricultural crops in Nigeria which include the standard arguments and price risk. The data comes from Central Bank of Nigeria annual reports and statement of account, National Bureau of Statistics＇ abstract of statistics and annual Agricultural survey manual. The data are analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag and cointegration and error correction models. The results indicate that producers are responsive not only to price but also to price risk and exchange rate.

The Changes in World Oil Prices, Monetary Factors, and Foreign Index Toward Composite Index Movement： Indonesian Case for the Period of 2005-2011

Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.

Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination： Evidence From the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is studied. As the cointegration relationship among exchange rate, output, and the monetary fundamentals （money supply and interest rate） is found, vector autoregressions （VAR）/vector error-correction （VEC） and two-stage least squares （2SLS） error-correction models are used in this context, since both approaches allow estimating short-run correlations between exchange rates and fundamentals while taking into account the existent long-run exchange rate constraints. Based on the quarterly data for the period of 1998-2012, it is found that for all countries, an increase in the money supply, domestic output slowdown, or stronger growth abroad are factors behind a nominal exchange rate depreciation, just as predicted by the monetary model of exchange rate. However, the effects of domestic-foreign interest rate differential are quite heterogeneous, being in line with theoretical predictions of a standard monetary model for Poland only. According to the decomposition of variance, money supply and interest rates account for 30%-46% of the exchange rate variation in the Czech Republic, from 10% to 14% in Hungary, and from 23% to 42% in Poland.

The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle in the Economy of Turkey

This study examines econometric relationships between bank lending and the business cycle in Turkey. Firstly, the cyclical components of the real GDP and real bank loans were determined using time series. A cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data were used for period of 1987：01-2013：03. The results of cointegration analysis indicate that there is a single stable long-run equilibrium relationship between real bank loans and macroeconomic variables. The response of bank loans to GDP shocks is positive. Bank loans have pro-cyclical character in Turkey.

Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth in Zambia

This study investigates the causal relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth in Zambia from 1965 to 2011. Two measures of financial development were used： broad money and domestic credit to the private sector, each as a ratio of gross domestic product （GDP）. In this regard, two models were developed for each indicator. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller （ADF） and Phillips-Perron （PP） tests were used to determine stationarity of all the variables. Furthermore, Johansen test was employed to ascertain possible cointegration among variables. The vector error correction model （VECM） was employed to examine the short-run and long-run dynamics among the variables in each model. The results indicate that the relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development indicator chosen.

China＇s Round-Tripped FDI： Trends,Determinants, and Policy Implications

With observations and reflections on a series of phenomena,such as the ＂independent situation＂of China＇s FDI during the recent global financial risis and the increase of round tripped investment after the ＂tax rate unification,＂this paper examines a unique phenomenon in China＇s FDI-round tripped investment.It reveals its determinants from a micro-perspectiv ,and establishes a vector error correction mode（VECM）for emprirical testing.The results is that the determinants of China＇s round tripped investment are institutional factors such as ＂achievable differential treatment＂ and cpaital control.Tax ,exchange rate,housing price and capital control intensity all have an impact on the scale of round tripped FDI.However,judging from the extent of influence,the most important factor should be exchange rate ,followed by capital control intensity and housing price,and tax has a limited impact.

China＇s Trade Slowdown： Cyclical or Structural？

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China＇s trade in 2012-2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation, Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import-intensity- adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China＇s trade growth in 2012-2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000-2015 industry- level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy-makers.

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Agglomeration of China

Nowadays, increased attention is being paid to the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for China＇s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, using annual data covering the period 1982- 2008. In this study, unit root tests, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Granger causality test are applied. The empirical results indicate that the two series （electricity consumption and economic growth） of the three locales （Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei） are non-stationary. But first differences of the two series are stationary. The results of the Johansen co-integration test indicate that electricity consumption and economic growth are co-integrated in Hebei and Tianjin while this is not the case in Beijing. The Granger causality test implies that there is causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth in all of the three locales. Causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption is found in Hebei and Beijing while this is not the case in Tianjin. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in Hebei and Beijing. But in Tianjin, an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth while economic growth cannot affect electricity consumption. These findings can provide useful information for local governments of the three locales to formulate sustainable energy and economic policies. The study is of great significance for circular economy and building a resource-conserving society.