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北京地区夏季降水概率预报业务应用研究 被引量:18
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作者 周兵 陆晨 周小平 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 1996年第1期3-6,共4页
作者分析了降水概率预报的基本特征,在北京中尺度数值预报模式(BMNFM)的基础上应用事件概率回归估计(REEP)方法,建立北京地区夏季两个量级(≥0.1mm和≥10.0mm)的降水概率预报方程,并结合最新天气观测资料... 作者分析了降水概率预报的基本特征,在北京中尺度数值预报模式(BMNFM)的基础上应用事件概率回归估计(REEP)方法,建立北京地区夏季两个量级(≥0.1mm和≥10.0mm)的降水概率预报方程,并结合最新天气观测资料和预报员知识订正客观预报结果。应用B评分,Bs评分和Bias方法对主观降水概率预报和客现降水概率预报进行评估。 展开更多
关键词 降水 概率预报 布莱尔评分 回归估计 降水预报
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应用线性化方法作江淮气旋发生的概率预报 被引量:3
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作者 韩林荣 方乾 张菊芳 《气象科学》 CSCD 北大核心 1998年第4期403-408,共6页
利用几十年气旋资料,应用经验统计及智能数据库技术,精选与气旋发生关系密切的因子,采用非线性回归变换,建立概率回归方程。将T016数值产品代入回归方程进行气旋概率预报。经实际应用并采用Brier评分,结果满意。
关键词 概率预报 非线性回归 布莱尔评分 气旋预报
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Modified Blair ankle fusion for ankle arthritis 被引量:1
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作者 Wang Shuangli Huang Zhang Xiong Gaoxin Chen Guang Yin Zhongxiang Jiang Hua 《Chinese Journal of Traumatology》 CAS CSCD 2014年第3期136-140,共5页
Objective: To investigate the clinical outcome of modified Blair ankle fusion for ankle arthritis. Methods: Between November 2009 and June 2012, 28 patients with ankle arthritis were treated, among whom 11 had obvio... Objective: To investigate the clinical outcome of modified Blair ankle fusion for ankle arthritis. Methods: Between November 2009 and June 2012, 28 patients with ankle arthritis were treated, among whom 11 had obvious foot varus deformity, and 17 were almost normal in appearance. There were 13 males and 15 females with an average age of 49.4 years (range, 23-67 years). The main symptoms included swelling, pain, and a limited range of motion of the ankles. The ankle joints functions were assessed by American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) ankle and hindfoot score and visual analog scale (VAS) preoperatively and at I year follow-up. Results: Twenty-eight patients were followed up for 19.8 months on average (range, 1-2 years). Superficial wound infection occurred in 3 cases, and was cured after debridement; the other incisions healed by first intention without complications. All ankles were fused at 1 year follow-up after operation. The symptom was relieved completely in all patients at last follow-up without complication of implant failure, or nonunion. The postoperative AOFAS ankle and hindfoot score was 83.13±3.76, showing significant difference when compared with the preoperative score (45.38±3.21, P〈0.01). VAS was significantly decreased from 8.01±0.63 to 2.31±1.05 at 1 year follow-up (P〈0.05). Conclusion: Modified Blair ankle fusion has the advantages of high feasiblity, less cost and rigid fixation. It shows high reliability in pain relief and may obtain a good clinical effectiveness. 展开更多
关键词 ANKLE ARTHRITIS ARTHRODESIS Fracturefixation intramedullary
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