Dominant patterns of winter surface air temperature over Central Asia and their connection with atmospheric circulation

The dominant patterns of the winter(December-February)surface air temperature anomalies(SATAs)over Central Asia(CA)are investigated in this study.The first two leading modes revealed by empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis represent the patterns by explaining 74%of the total variance.The positive phase of EOF1 is characterized by a monopole pattern,corresponding to cold SATAs over CA,while the positive phase of EOF2 shows a meridional dipole pattern with warm and cold SATAs over northern and southern CA.EOF1 is mainly modulated by the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation(AO)in the troposphere,and the negative AO phase may be caused by the downward propagation of the precursory anomalies of the stratospheric polar vortex.EOF2 is mainly influenced by the Ural blocking pattern and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO).The SATAs associated with EOF2 can be attributed to a dipole-like pattern of geopotential height anomalies over CA.The dipole-like pattern is mainly caused by the Ural blocking pattern,and the NAO can also contribute to the northern part of the dipole.

Sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic during El Nino decaying years

Based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016,this study focuses on the sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly of the tropical North Atlantic(TNA)in El Nino decaying years.The TNA SST exhibits a clear warm trend during this period.The composite result for 10 El Nino events shows that the TNA SST anomaly reaches its maximum in spring after the peak of an El Nino event and persists until summer.In general,the anomaly is associated with three factors-namely,El Nino,the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and a long-term trend,leading to an increase in local SST up to 0.4℃,0.3℃,and 0.35℃,respectively.A comparison between 1983 and 2005 indicates that the TNA SST in spring is affected by El Niño,as well as the local SST in the preceding winter,which may involve a long-term trend signal.In addition,the lead-lag correlation shows that the NAO leads the TNA SST by 2-3 months.By comparing two years with an opposite phase of the NAO in winter(i.e.,1992 and 2010),the authors further demonstrate that the NAO is another important factor in regulating the TNA SST anomaly.A negative phase of the NAO in winter will reinforce the El Nino forcing substantially,and vise versa.In other words,the TNA SST anomaly in the decaying years is more evident if the NAO is negative with El Nino.Therefore,the combined effects of El Nino and the NAO must be considered in order to fully understand the TNA SST variability along with a long-term trend.

Representation of the Arctic Oscillation in the CMIP5 Models

The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation(AO)simulated in the historical experiment of26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)are evaluated.Spectral analysis of the monthly AO index indicates that 23 out of the 26 CMIP5 models exhibit no statistically significant spectral peak in the historical experiment,as seen in the observations.These models are able to reproduce the AO pattern in the sea level pressure anomaly field during boreal winter,but the intensity of the AO pattern tends to be overestimated in all the models.The zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies associated with the AO is dominated by a meridional dipole in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter,which is well reproduced by only a few models.Most models show significant biases in both strength and location of the dipole compared to the observation.In considering the temporal variability as well as spatial structures in both horizontal and vertical directions,the MPI-ESM-P model reproduces an AO pattern that resembles the observation the best.

Arctic Oscillation anomaly in winter 2009/2010 and its impacts on weather and climate

Using the Arctic Oscillation(AO) index,the exceptional winter(DJF) of 2009 has been analyzed.The middle-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere suffered from a nearly zonally symmetric anomaly of temperature and pressure.This situation revealed that two negative AO events occurred in the winter of 2009/2010,with unprecedented low values in January 2009 and February 2010.The negative AO event in January 2009 can be further divided into two stages:the first stage was mainly driven by enhanced upward-propagating planetary waves,which led to a weak stratospheric polar vortex associated with a downward-propagating negative AO signal;the second stage was caused by a lower tropospheric positive temperature anomaly in the high latitudes,which maintained the positive geopotential height anomaly of the first stage.The two successively occurring stages interacted and caused the lower troposphere to experience a strong and lengthy persistence of the negative AO event.We consider that the second event of negative AO in February 2010 is related to the downward-propagating negative AO after sudden stratospheric warming.Eleven long-persistence negative AO events were analyzed using reanalysis data.The results suggest that the negative AO in the troposphere might have been caused by stratospheric sudden warming,a downward-propagating weak stratospheric circulation anomaly or dynamic processes in the troposphere.Further study shows that the negative phase of the AO in the winter of 2009/2010 corresponded to a wide range of temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere.Therefore,to improve the accuracy of weather forecasting and climate prediction,more attention should be paid to the AO anomaly and its impact.