汇率方法与购买力平价方法视域下的中美经济规模比较

以汇率方法和购买力平价方法计算中美经济规模会得出不同结论。近两年中国以汇率方法计算的名义国内生产总值与美国的差距有所扩大,实际上这是由美国价格水平上升以及人民币对美元汇率贬值造成的。自1980年以来,中国的实际国内生产总值增长率一直高于美国,实际国内生产总值与美国的差距在迅速缩小。如果以购买力平价方法计算,中国实际国内生产总值在2017年超过美国,其后超过美国的幅度不断扩大。但是,国内生产总值体现了一个国家的经济规模,并不能完全反映其经济发展水平,总体看中国还是一个发展中国家。

人民币均衡汇率估计:购买力平价方法

检验了人民币与美元汇率的购买力平价方法的应用条件是否成立,并利用购买力平价方法估计了人民币和美元的均衡汇率。估计结果表明,1985年以前人民币汇率存在长期高估的现象,1985年以后则出现高估和低估交替出现的现象,并且人民币高估或低估的平均幅度有所缩小。说明,人民币汇率已经进入一个相对稳定的变化发展阶段。

基于风险平价方法的几种风险组合实证分析

以风险配置为核心建立投资组合是目前备受关注的一类投资组合管理技术。本文以10只不同行业股票的日收益率为例,运用风险平价方法建立风险平价组合和两种风险预算组合,并给出它们与切点组合的比较。结果表明:无论是从投资绩效和风险的角度,还是从投资结构和交易成本的角度来看,风险平价组合和两种风险预算组合均较切点组合占优势。另外,两种风险预算组合克服了风险平价组合只能以相同方式配置资产风险的缺陷,从而可以在一定程度上满足不同风险偏好投资者的需求。

购买力平价方法简介

GDP总量及其人均水平的国际比较是经济分析研究的重要内容，也是行政决策的主要依据。GDP国际比较通常应满足如下三个条件：一是指标概念定义、计算方法应一致；二是用同一货币单位来表示；三是用相同的价格来衡量，剔除各国之间价格水平的差异，进行物量意义上的比较。

从国际比较的汇率法与购买力平价方法看我国加入WTO后的汇率政策变化

在国民经济核算中,研究国民经济的发展状况,需要进行多种对比。一种是纵向对比,即历史对比;一种是横向对比,即国际对比。这两种对比都需要取用产值指标。而产值指标的大小,一般受两个因素的影响:价格和产量(包括质量品种因素)。要切实反映国民经济的发展状况,采取产值指标,必须设法消除价格变动的因素。本文主要就国民经济横向对比,即国家间的对比,设法消除由于各国货币单位不同,而不能对比的因素。主要探讨汇率法(图表集法)和购买力平价法(Purchasing Power Parity,PPP)两种国际比较项目(International,Comparision Projed,ICP)方法。阐明其中汇率法的不足。

购买力平价汇总方法测算稳定性研究

汇总方法和基础数据是购买力平价(PPP)测度的两大核心,就PPP测算结果的质量而言,比汇总方法理论性质更为重要的是其与基础数据质量的匹配程度。从PPP测度实践来看,全球范围内参与国际比较项目(ICP)经济体的基础数据质量呈“偏态分布”是难以避免的客观现实,其对PPP测算结果的影响已有一定定性认识,但对于具体影响的形式和程度,还缺乏必要的量化研究。本文以汇总方法的稳定性为切入点,通过对基础数据质量因素的量化模拟,探讨PPP汇总方法的测算特性,一方面能够补充对汇总方法的理论认识,另一方面能够为优化PPP测度实践提供借鉴。具体包括以下内容:一是基于稳定性的一般定义和PPP测度实践,阐述和讨论PPP汇总方法测算稳定性的内涵和意义;二是从内生数据干扰角度,模拟测度和分析GEKS法的测算稳定性特征;三是从外生数据干扰角度,模拟测度和比较分析GEKS法、GK法及其衍生方法的测算稳定性;四是综合前述测度和分析结果得出对ICP实践具有借鉴价值的结论与启示。

云南山区高速公路沟谷型弃渣场洪水影响评价方法研究

以会泽—巧家高速公路腰店子沟弃渣场为例,研究云南山区高速公路的弃渣场洪水影响评价,对弃渣场的防洪标准、暴雨洪水特征、河道演变进行分析,通过河道特征值量算、洪水计算、过流能力计算、雍水计算、冲刷分析等研究得出洪评结论,为弃渣场的设计、施工、管理提供指导。同时可为同地区的其他弃渣场的规划建设提供参考与借鉴。

评西方对人民币均衡汇率的评估

宏观经济平衡方法和扩展的购买力平价方法是西方常用的衡量人民币均衡汇率的方法。宏观经济平衡方法主要用来测算为达到对外收支均衡,实际汇率需要作出的变动,但该方法计算基本经常账户时需要作出取舍,且难以预期经济结构变化对一国对外收支状况的影响,具有扩大实际汇率的低估或高估等弊端。扩展的购买力平价方法直接通过单一等式测算均衡实际汇率,但应用该方法会夸大人民币汇率低估的程度。由于这些方法存在弊端,人民币均衡汇率难以确定,因此,西方指责人民币汇率严重低估,从而构成对中国出口产品的补贴或倾销的论调难以成立。

Study on the evaluation index system and evaluation method for self-elevating drilling unit design

In the process of designing self-elevating drilling unit, it is important, yet complicated, to use comparison and filtering to select the optimum scheme from the feasible ones. In this research, an index system and methodology for the evaluation of self-elevating drilling unit was proposed. Based on this, a multi-objective combinatorial optimization model was developed, using the improved grey relation Analysis （GRA）, in which the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） was used to determine the weights of the evaluating indices. It considered the connections within the indices, reflecting the objective nature of things, and also considered the subjective interests of ship owners and the needs of designers. The evaluation index system and evaluation method can be used in the selection of an optimal scheme and advanced assessment. A case study shows the index system and evaluation method are scientific, reasonable, and easy to put into practice. At the same time, such an evaluation index system and evaluation method will be helpful for making decisions for other mobile platforms.

The possible effects on the future management of local Italian authorities following the use of financial derivative instruments

The appeal from municipalities, provinces and regions to financial derivative instruments is tied to the need of overcoming the situations in a state of urgency inherent in a balance. On average, one local Italian authority in twenty has decided to underwrite a derivative product, giving life to a number of contracts that had a value of over 35 billion euro with an average value of 6.5 million for each contract until 2007. The boom of swaps has, since 2000 on, experienced a peak period from 2003 to the end of 2005, in which the Euribor rate touched a very low level, maintained itself for long periods at around 2% and fallen in some cases even under this value. Many of the contracts completed before 2006, which link the debt of local authorities to variable rates, but also many of those completed from 2006 onwards that moved debt onto fixed rate, which are now a source of loss for the balance of local authorities that have underwritten them. In the 2002-2008 period, the number of the stipulation of contracts local authorities reported to the Ministry of Economy and Finance is about 900, corresponding to more or less 150 per year, which affected 18 regions, 44 provinces, 532 municipalities and 4 mountain commtmities, for a total of 594 authorities. Therefore, the local authorities have approached the derivative instruments in an often approximate way without a real awareness, both for the conditions that were being negotiated and the effects that they would have produced in perspective. The purpose of this work is to highlight the consequences of the use of derivative instruments on the future management of local authorities.

Water Security-based Hydrological Regime Assessment Method for Lakes with Extreme Seasonal Water Level Fluctuations：A Case Study of Poyang Lake,China

Extreme seasonal water level fluctuations characterize natural floodplain lakes in monsoon regions, which are crucial for ensuring lake water security, including flood prevention water supply and health of aquatic ecosystem. In order to achieve this goal, we established a hydrological regime assessment method based on a set of hydrological indicators for lakes with heavy seasonal water level fluctuations. The results suggest that time-sensitive hydrological indicators and specific time scales for various water security aspects must be considered. We discovered that it is more practical and meaningful to combine the water level classification derived from statistical analyses with characteristic hydrological values linked to water security. The case study of Poyang Lake results show that there are no discernable trends of Poyang Lake water regime status over the last 35 years, and the two periods of poor status are in accordance with climate variation in the lake basin area. Scholars and policy makers should focus on both floods and droughts, which are the main water security problems for Poyang Lake. It is hoped that this multi-scale and multi-element hydrological regime assessment method will provide new guidelines and methods for other international scholars of river and lake water assessment.

Gaming Narratives as Frameworks for Writing Self-assessments

The paper addresses the disconnected students experience between evaluating their own writing and traditional evaluation methods, despite effective discussion and analysis in the classroom, especially, wide when students＇ reading skills are limited. The paper considers the application of flipping students＇ intense interest and intimate comprehension of video gaming into a lens for evaluating their writing. The sophisticated storylines in some literacy-laden video games rivet students＇ attention in higher order applications while the intricate plots and characters mirror those literary elements taught in print media. Garner comprehension is demandingly complex; transferring literary elements from the game storyline to their writing provides the comprehension carry-over for effective self-evaluation. They can ＂see＂ as a metaphor, those parallel concepts from screen to print, from playing strengths to reading and writing, for them, literary qualities become more transparent, and thus more accessible.

Directions of Arrival Optimization Method for Broadband Antenna Array Based on Filter Bank

This paper proposes an estimation method of the directions of arrival(DOA) for the broadband signals received by a uniform planar antenna array including the mutual coupling effect. The process modeling of antenna array receiving dynamic signal is obtained accurately via building the array system electromagnetic space-time model, and the mutual coupling effect is included in the synthesis procedure automatically. The broadband signal is divided into several sub-bands, and the complex weight of these sub-bands frequencies is figured out using the least mean square iteration programming. In the proposed method, the mutual coupling effect is compensated at the different frequencies. The calculation results show that the method is suitable for the uniform linear and uniform circular array pattern integration, and it is commendably satisfied with the requirement of engineering design.

Application of Rough Sets to Evaluate Fabric Smoothness Grade

For garment or fabric appearance, the cloth smoothness grade is one of the most important performance factors in textile and garment community. In this paper, on the base of Rough Set Theory,a new objective method for fabric smoothness grade evaluation was constructed. The objective smoothness grading model took the parameters of 120 AATCC replicas' point-sampled models as the conditional attributes and formed the smoothness grading decision table. Then, NS discretization method and genetic algorithm reduction method were used in the attributes discretization and feature reduction. Finally, the grading model was expressed as simple and intuitional classification rules. The simulation results show the validity of the fabric smoothness grading system which is built on the use of rough sets.

Reliability evaluation method and algorithm for electromechanical product

The reliability of electromechanical product is usually determined by the fault number and working time traditionally. The shortcoming of this method is that the product must be in service. To design and enhance the reliability of the electromechanical product, the reliability evaluation method must be feasible and correct. Reliability evaluation method and algorithm were proposed. The reliability of product can be calculated by the reliability of subsystems which can be gained by experiment or historical data. The reliability of the machining center was evaluated by the method and algorithm as one example. The calculation result shows that the solution accuracy of mean time between failures is 97.4% calculated by the method proposed in this article compared by the traditional method. The method and algorithm can be used to evaluate the reliability of electromechanical product before it is in service.

Research on Energy Consumption Evaluation Combined with Endogenous Pollutants of China Based on Entropy-Topsis

The traditional evaluation of energy consumption mostly introduces pollutants as a negative economic output into evaluating model,ignoring the configuration relationship among the energy input,pollutants as well as economic output.This paper considers the overall process of energy consumption and constructs an evaluation indication system of energy consumption level combined with endogenous pollutants based on entropytopsis method,then makes empirical research.The results show that China's energy consumption level presents a fluctuant rise in the premise of emission.Energy consumption level depends on the relationship among energy input,pollutants and economic output.The raise of energy consumption level should not increase economic output and reduce pollutant emission at the expense of environment.Finally,the whole paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve the overall level of energy consumption.

2017年轮ICP区域比较方法及其影响

国际比较项目(ICP)采用分区域比较的组织方式,2017年轮ICP并没有实现比较方法的全球统一,各区域所采用的比较方法并不完全相同。本文介绍了2017年轮ICP的区域划分,从特殊领域的比较方法、区域PPP计算方法、区域PPP链接方法等角度对各区域的比较方法进行了总结,并分析了其对购买力平价结果的影响。

Influence of Temperature Difference Calculation Method on the Evaluation of Rankine Cycle Performance

In the new century, energy and environmental problems are becoming more critical, and the development of natural energy is desired. Low-grade Thermal Energy Conversion(LTEC) is refocused as one of the renewable energy methods. The usefulness of LTEC is expected using hot springs and waste heat. In the case of the Rankine cycle using ammonia as the working fluid, the thermal properties of the working fluid changes in the evaporator. The traditional evaluation method of heat exchanger performance is the LMTD(Logarithmic Mean Temperature Difference) method. On the other hand, the GMTD(Generalized Mean Temperature Difference) method allows the variation of thermal properties in the heat exchanger. The aim of this study is to compare the two methods for the calculation of temperature differences and the corresponding influence on the total performance of the Rankine cycle that is operated using ammonia as a working fluid. As a result, the thermal efficiency of the Rankine cycle is greater than that of the LMTD method. Moreover, the computable range of the GMTD calculation method is less than that of the LMTD calculation method.

Posterior malleolar fracture： technique and clinical exerience of the posterolateral approach

：Objective：To introduce the posterolateral surgical approach to the posterior malleolar fracture and report its clinical outcomes in 32 cases.Methods：This study consisted of 32 cases,22 males and 10 females with the mean age of 48 years（range,21-63years）,suffering from posterior malleolar fracture.All cases were treated with the posterolateral surgical approach to the ankle.The average follow-up period was 28 months （range,24-35 months）.The clinical outcomes of these cases were evaluated on the basis of the Olerud-Molander Ankle （OMA）score and plain radiographs.Results：All cases showed radiological evidence of bony union at follow-up.The average OMA score was 82 points; 21 cases had excellent scores（90-100 points）,9 good （61-90 points）,and 2 fair（31-60 points）.The excellent-togood rate was 93.8%.Although most cases did not show any wound dehiscence or necrosis,one patient had a superficial infection which healed after using antibiotic dressing and one had sural cutaneous nerve injury that underwent spontaneous remission without any treatment after three months.In addition,one presented with mild symptoms of peroneal tendonitis that disappeared after plateremoval.Conclusion：The posterolateral approach offers an effective technique for fracture reduction and fixation of large posterior malleolar fragments.

Evolution Properties of Atomic Fidelity in the Combined Multi-Atom-Cavity Field System

The atom fidelity is investigated in a system consisting of Mtwo-level atoms and M single-mode fields by use of complete quantum theory and numerical evaluation method. The influences of various system parameters on the evolution of atomic fidelity are studied. The results show that the atomic fidelity evolves in a Rabi oscillation manner. The oscillation frequency is mainly modulated by the coupling strength between atoms and light field, the atomic transition probabilities and the average photon numbers. Other factors hardly impact on the atomic fidelity. The present results may provide a useful approach to the maintenance of the atomic fidelity in the atom cavity field systems.