基于国家气象信息中心＂基础气象资料建设专项＂研制的中国地面历史基础气象资料及台站元数据,利用RHtest V4软件包对天津1951-2012年的历史气温序列进行了均一性分析。结果显示,通过惩罚最大t检验（PMT）方法对12个地面站逐日平均、最...基于国家气象信息中心＂基础气象资料建设专项＂研制的中国地面历史基础气象资料及台站元数据,利用RHtest V4软件包对天津1951-2012年的历史气温序列进行了均一性分析。结果显示,通过惩罚最大t检验（PMT）方法对12个地面站逐日平均、最高、最低气温序列检验得到,迁站是导致平均气温和最低气温序列突变的主要原因,同类型仪器更换则是导致最高气温序列突变的主要原因,而2005年以后的自动站业务化并没有对天津地区气温序列的均一性造成很大影响。同时,研究中也检验出少部分未知原因的显著间断点,可能是由于观测员的误判或观测仪器翘变等因素造成的历史数据疑误。从订正量来看,逐日平均气温和最高气温序列主要以正偏差订正为主,而最低气温则主要以负偏差订正为主。其中,最高气温序列的分位数匹配（QM）订正量均值最大,90%以上集中在0.1-1.0°C,平均气温序列的QM订正量均值相对最小,90%以上的订正量在-0.7-0.7°C,而最低气温的订正量90%以上集中在-1.5-1.5°C范围中。另外,以Xu et al.（2013）研制的数据集为参照,通过误差分析,发现两类研究得到的年（季节）尺度气温数据具有较高的相符率和一致性,从而可以说明本研究订正后的天津地区1951-2012年逐日气温序列具有一定的可靠性。展开更多
Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China （Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces）, this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant incre...Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China （Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces）, this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature for Central China during 1961 -2010. The increasing rate was 0.15℃ per decade, which was lower than the national trend. Since the mid-1980s, temperature increasing was obvious. Large increasing rate was observed in the mid-eastern part of Central China. For the four seasons, the increasing rate in winter was the largest （0.27℃ per decade）. The increasing rate in the annual mean minimum temperature was larger than that in the annual mean maximum temperature from 1961 to 2010. As a result, the diurnal range of temperature decreased at the rate of -0.10℃ per decade. The extreme high temperature events were increasing while the extreme low temperature events were significantly decreasing. There was no obvious trend in annual precipitation for Central China during 1961-2010. Precipitation in summer and winter significantly increased; change of precipitation in spring was not obvious; precipitation in autumn was decreasing. The decreasing rate of annual rainy days was -3.4 d per decade. The precipitation intensity increased at the rate of 0.25 mm d-1 per decade. Heavy-rain days significantly increased. Spring and summer started earlier while autumn and winter started later. As a result, spring and summer duration was expanding whereas autumn and winter duration shortened.展开更多
Change related to climate in Macao was studied on the basis of daily temperature observations over the period 1901-2007. The result shows that annual mean surface air temperature in Macao as a whole rose with a warmin...Change related to climate in Macao was studied on the basis of daily temperature observations over the period 1901-2007. The result shows that annual mean surface air temperature in Macao as a whole rose with a warming rate of about 0.066℃ per 10 years in the recent 107 years. The most evident warming occurred in spring and winter. The interdecadal variations of the seasonal mean temperature in summer and winter appeared as a series of waves with a time scale of about 30 years and 60 years, respectively. The annual mean minimum temperature increased about twice as fast as the annual mean maximum temperature, resulting in a broad decline in the annual mean diurnal range. The interdecadal variations of annual mean maximum temperature are obviously different from those of annual mean minimum temperature. It appears that the increase in the annual mean maximum temperature in the recent 20 years may be part of slow climate fluctuations with a periodicity of about 60 years, whereas that in the annual mean minimum temperature appears to be the continuation of a long-term warming trend.展开更多
文摘基于国家气象信息中心＂基础气象资料建设专项＂研制的中国地面历史基础气象资料及台站元数据,利用RHtest V4软件包对天津1951-2012年的历史气温序列进行了均一性分析。结果显示,通过惩罚最大t检验（PMT）方法对12个地面站逐日平均、最高、最低气温序列检验得到,迁站是导致平均气温和最低气温序列突变的主要原因,同类型仪器更换则是导致最高气温序列突变的主要原因,而2005年以后的自动站业务化并没有对天津地区气温序列的均一性造成很大影响。同时,研究中也检验出少部分未知原因的显著间断点,可能是由于观测员的误判或观测仪器翘变等因素造成的历史数据疑误。从订正量来看,逐日平均气温和最高气温序列主要以正偏差订正为主,而最低气温则主要以负偏差订正为主。其中,最高气温序列的分位数匹配（QM）订正量均值最大,90%以上集中在0.1-1.0°C,平均气温序列的QM订正量均值相对最小,90%以上的订正量在-0.7-0.7°C,而最低气温的订正量90%以上集中在-1.5-1.5°C范围中。另外,以Xu et al.（2013）研制的数据集为参照,通过误差分析,发现两类研究得到的年（季节）尺度气温数据具有较高的相符率和一致性,从而可以说明本研究订正后的天津地区1951-2012年逐日气温序列具有一定的可靠性。
基金supported by the Climate Change Special Project of China Meteorological Administration:The Assessment Report Preparation of the Climate Change of Central China (No. CCSF-10-04)
文摘Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China （Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces）, this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature for Central China during 1961 -2010. The increasing rate was 0.15℃ per decade, which was lower than the national trend. Since the mid-1980s, temperature increasing was obvious. Large increasing rate was observed in the mid-eastern part of Central China. For the four seasons, the increasing rate in winter was the largest （0.27℃ per decade）. The increasing rate in the annual mean minimum temperature was larger than that in the annual mean maximum temperature from 1961 to 2010. As a result, the diurnal range of temperature decreased at the rate of -0.10℃ per decade. The extreme high temperature events were increasing while the extreme low temperature events were significantly decreasing. There was no obvious trend in annual precipitation for Central China during 1961-2010. Precipitation in summer and winter significantly increased; change of precipitation in spring was not obvious; precipitation in autumn was decreasing. The decreasing rate of annual rainy days was -3.4 d per decade. The precipitation intensity increased at the rate of 0.25 mm d-1 per decade. Heavy-rain days significantly increased. Spring and summer started earlier while autumn and winter started later. As a result, spring and summer duration was expanding whereas autumn and winter duration shortened.
文摘Change related to climate in Macao was studied on the basis of daily temperature observations over the period 1901-2007. The result shows that annual mean surface air temperature in Macao as a whole rose with a warming rate of about 0.066℃ per 10 years in the recent 107 years. The most evident warming occurred in spring and winter. The interdecadal variations of the seasonal mean temperature in summer and winter appeared as a series of waves with a time scale of about 30 years and 60 years, respectively. The annual mean minimum temperature increased about twice as fast as the annual mean maximum temperature, resulting in a broad decline in the annual mean diurnal range. The interdecadal variations of annual mean maximum temperature are obviously different from those of annual mean minimum temperature. It appears that the increase in the annual mean maximum temperature in the recent 20 years may be part of slow climate fluctuations with a periodicity of about 60 years, whereas that in the annual mean minimum temperature appears to be the continuation of a long-term warming trend.
