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基于指数支撑度的最优组合预测模型及其性质研究 被引量:19
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作者 袁宏俊 陈华友 胡凌云 《应用概率统计》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第2期150-160,共11页
在支撑度定义的基础上,提出平均指数支撑度、平均离散度等概念,构建了平均指数支撑度最优组合预测模型,并考虑其等价的平均离散度最优组合预测模型.针对该模型,提出优性组合预测等概念,给出了非劣性组合预测和优性组合预测存在的充分条... 在支撑度定义的基础上,提出平均指数支撑度、平均离散度等概念,构建了平均指数支撑度最优组合预测模型,并考虑其等价的平均离散度最优组合预测模型.针对该模型,提出优性组合预测等概念,给出了非劣性组合预测和优性组合预测存在的充分条件、冗余预测方法的存在性和冗余信息的判定等结果,最后的实例说明了该模型的有效性. 展开更多
关键词 组合预测 平均指数支撑 平均离散度 优性组合预测
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Parameterizations of different hydrometeor spectral relative dispersion in the convective clouds
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作者 Qinyao Zou Lei Zhu +4 位作者 Chunsong Lu Guang J.Zhang Xiaoqi Xu Qian Chen Dan Li 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2022年第3期18-24,共7页
Spectral relative dispersion of different hydrometeors is vital to accurately describe sedimentation.Here,the Weather Research and Forecasting model with spectral bin microphysics is used to simulate convective clouds... Spectral relative dispersion of different hydrometeors is vital to accurately describe sedimentation.Here,the Weather Research and Forecasting model with spectral bin microphysics is used to simulate convective clouds in Shouxian of Anhui province in China to study the spectral relative dispersion of different hydrometeors.Firstly,regardless of clean or polluted conditions,the relative dispersion of ice crystal spectra and its volume-mean diameter are negatively correlated,while the relative dispersion of other hydrometeor spectra is positively related to their respective volume-mean diameter.The correlations for cloud droplets and raindrops are affected by the process of collision-coalescence;the correlations for ice crystals,graupel particles,and snow particles could be affected by the deposition,riming,and aggregation processes,respectively.Secondly,relative dispersion parameterizations are developed based on a comprehensive consideration of the relationships between the relative dispersion and volume-mean diameter under both polluted and clean conditions.Finally,the relative dispersion parameterizations are applied to terminal velocity parameterizations.The results show that for cloud droplets,ice crystals,graupel particles,and snow particles,assuming the shape parameter in the Gamma distribution is equal to 0 underestimates the shape parameter and overestimates the relative dispersion;and for raindrops,assuming the shape parameter is equal to 0 is close to the relative dispersion parameterizations.The most appropriate constant shape parameters are recommended for different hydrometeors.The relative dispersion parameterizations developed here shed new light for further optimizing the terminal velocity parameterizations in models. 展开更多
关键词 Hydrometeors Relative dispersion CLOUD Volume-mean diameter
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