Based on RegCM4,a climate model system,we simulated the distribution of the present climate(1961-1990)and the future climate(2010-2099),under emission scenarios of RCPs over the whole Pearl River Basin.From the climat...Based on RegCM4,a climate model system,we simulated the distribution of the present climate(1961-1990)and the future climate(2010-2099),under emission scenarios of RCPs over the whole Pearl River Basin.From the climate parameters,a set of mean precipitation,wet day frequency,and mean wet day intensity and several precipitation percentiles are used to assess the expected changes in daily precipitation characteristics for the 21 st century.Meanwhile the return values of precipitation intensity with an average return of 5,10,20,and 50 years are also used to assess the expected changes in precipitation extremes events in this study.The structure of the change across the precipitation distribution is very coherent between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The annual,spring and winter average precipitation decreases while the summer and autumn average precipitation increases.The basic diagnostics of precipitation show that the frequency of precipitation is projected to decrease but the intensity is projected to increase.The wet day percentiles(q90 and q95) also increase,indicating that precipitation extremes intensity will increase in the future.Meanwhile,the5-year return value tends to increase by 30%-45%in the basins of Liujiang River,Red Water River,Guihe River and Pearl River Delta region,where the 5-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 8-to 10-year return value of the present climate,and the 50-year return value corresponds to the 100-year return value of the present climate over the Pearl River Delta region in the 2080 s under RCP8.5,which indicates that the warming environment will give rise to changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events.展开更多
Hourly summer precipitation data recorded at 21 stations during 1961-2004 in the Haihe River Basin in North China were an alyzed. The results show that the precipitation frequency and amount and the morning peak mainl...Hourly summer precipitation data recorded at 21 stations during 1961-2004 in the Haihe River Basin in North China were an alyzed. The results show that the precipitation frequency and amount and the morning peak mainly relating to longduratiol rainfall events decreased during this period, whereas the normalized afternoon peak mainly relating to short-duration event： increased, which may suggest that the proportion of short-duration rainfall has increased as the total summer rainfall has de creased. For short-duration events, the mean intensity and peak intensity increased at most stations and the time to peak inten sity decreased, which may be attributable to the higher thermal contrast between the warmer lower surface and cooler uppe level. In the case of long-duration events, the total amount was significantly correlated with the East Asian summer monsool index for the period 1961-2001 （correlation coefficient of 0.63）. Although the total amount of rainfall in long-duration event： decreased in the basin, the mean intensity and peak intensity, as well as the extreme hourly precipitation, increased in the western basin and decreased in the eastern basin.展开更多
基金Specialized Research Project for Public Welfare Industries(Meteorology)from the Ministry of Science and Technology(GYHY201406025)Specialized Project for Climate Change from China Meteorological Administration(CCSF201404,CCSF2011-25,CCSF201211CCSF 2011-25)+2 种基金Specialized Foundation for Low Carbon Development in Guangdong Province(2012-019)Foundation of Science Innovation Teams for Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(201102)Science and Technology Planning Project for Guangdong Province(2012A061400012)
文摘Based on RegCM4,a climate model system,we simulated the distribution of the present climate(1961-1990)and the future climate(2010-2099),under emission scenarios of RCPs over the whole Pearl River Basin.From the climate parameters,a set of mean precipitation,wet day frequency,and mean wet day intensity and several precipitation percentiles are used to assess the expected changes in daily precipitation characteristics for the 21 st century.Meanwhile the return values of precipitation intensity with an average return of 5,10,20,and 50 years are also used to assess the expected changes in precipitation extremes events in this study.The structure of the change across the precipitation distribution is very coherent between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The annual,spring and winter average precipitation decreases while the summer and autumn average precipitation increases.The basic diagnostics of precipitation show that the frequency of precipitation is projected to decrease but the intensity is projected to increase.The wet day percentiles(q90 and q95) also increase,indicating that precipitation extremes intensity will increase in the future.Meanwhile,the5-year return value tends to increase by 30%-45%in the basins of Liujiang River,Red Water River,Guihe River and Pearl River Delta region,where the 5-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 8-to 10-year return value of the present climate,and the 50-year return value corresponds to the 100-year return value of the present climate over the Pearl River Delta region in the 2080 s under RCP8.5,which indicates that the warming environment will give rise to changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB403404)the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2007 BAC29B04)the National Science Foundation Program for Post-doctoral Scientists of China (Grant No. 20080440343)
文摘Hourly summer precipitation data recorded at 21 stations during 1961-2004 in the Haihe River Basin in North China were an alyzed. The results show that the precipitation frequency and amount and the morning peak mainly relating to longduratiol rainfall events decreased during this period, whereas the normalized afternoon peak mainly relating to short-duration event： increased, which may suggest that the proportion of short-duration rainfall has increased as the total summer rainfall has de creased. For short-duration events, the mean intensity and peak intensity increased at most stations and the time to peak inten sity decreased, which may be attributable to the higher thermal contrast between the warmer lower surface and cooler uppe level. In the case of long-duration events, the total amount was significantly correlated with the East Asian summer monsool index for the period 1961-2001 （correlation coefficient of 0.63）. Although the total amount of rainfall in long-duration event： decreased in the basin, the mean intensity and peak intensity, as well as the extreme hourly precipitation, increased in the western basin and decreased in the eastern basin.
