In this study,the relationship of tropical cyclone(TC)size change rate(SCR),within 24 hours,with size,intensity,and intensity change rate(ICR)are explored over the western North Pacific.TC size is defined as the azimu...In this study,the relationship of tropical cyclone(TC)size change rate(SCR),within 24 hours,with size,intensity,and intensity change rate(ICR)are explored over the western North Pacific.TC size is defined as the azimuthally averaged radius of gale-force wind of 17 m s−1(R17)based on the Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis data.The majority of SCRs are mainly distributed in the range from−20 to 80 km d−1.The correlation coefficients between SCR and size(SCR-R17),intensity,and ICR(SCR-ICR)are−0.43,−0.12,and 0.25,respectively.The sensitivity of the SCR-R17 and SCR-ICR relationships to size,intensity,and evolution stage are further examined.Results show that the SCR-R17 relationship is more sensitive to variations of size and evolution stage than that of intensity.The relationship of SCR-ICR is largely modulated by the evolution stage.The correlation coefficient of SCR-ICR can increase from 0.25 to 0.40 when only considering the lifetime stages concurrently before and after the lifetime maximum size(LMS)and lifetime maximum intensity.This demonstrates that ICR is a potential factor in predicting SCR during these evolution stages.Besides,the TC size expansion(shrinkage)is more likely to occur for TCs with smaller(larger)size and weaker(stronger)intensity.The complexity of size change during a TC's lifetime can be attributed to the fact that shrinkage or expansion could occur both before and after LMS.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41975071 and 41775063].
文摘In this study,the relationship of tropical cyclone(TC)size change rate(SCR),within 24 hours,with size,intensity,and intensity change rate(ICR)are explored over the western North Pacific.TC size is defined as the azimuthally averaged radius of gale-force wind of 17 m s−1(R17)based on the Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis data.The majority of SCRs are mainly distributed in the range from−20 to 80 km d−1.The correlation coefficients between SCR and size(SCR-R17),intensity,and ICR(SCR-ICR)are−0.43,−0.12,and 0.25,respectively.The sensitivity of the SCR-R17 and SCR-ICR relationships to size,intensity,and evolution stage are further examined.Results show that the SCR-R17 relationship is more sensitive to variations of size and evolution stage than that of intensity.The relationship of SCR-ICR is largely modulated by the evolution stage.The correlation coefficient of SCR-ICR can increase from 0.25 to 0.40 when only considering the lifetime stages concurrently before and after the lifetime maximum size(LMS)and lifetime maximum intensity.This demonstrates that ICR is a potential factor in predicting SCR during these evolution stages.Besides,the TC size expansion(shrinkage)is more likely to occur for TCs with smaller(larger)size and weaker(stronger)intensity.The complexity of size change during a TC's lifetime can be attributed to the fact that shrinkage or expansion could occur both before and after LMS.
