华北农牧交错带夏季极端气候的趋势分析

利用1956～2001年日降水量及日平均气温资料,分析华北农牧交错带极端气候事件的长期变化趋势.对降水极端事件的分析季节为5～9月,温度为6～8月.结果发现暴雨(日降水≥50 mm)频数没有显著的线性变化趋势,但1980年前后发生了明显的年代际尺度变化,1980年代到1990年代初,频次显著减少,此期间暴雨发生的时间更加分散.定义连续无雨的天数为干燥事件.发现虽然降水量没有显著的变化,但是严重干燥事件(连续0降水日≥10天)的频数却呈显著增加趋势(+8.3%/10a),超过99%信度水平.最高和最低的10%温度分别定义异常高温和异常低温,则异常高温的频数有显著增加趋势(+20.9%/10a),特别是1990年代后期以来增加非常突出.异常低温频次有减少的趋势(-15.1%/10a),超过99%信度水平.严重干燥事件及异常高温事件的强烈增加,可能是造成近来北方干旱频繁发生的重要原因.

中国玛珥湖及其研究意义

随着全球变化研究的深入,科学家们认识到古气候变化除轨道尺度的冰期/间冰期旋回之外还存在年代际-千年尺度的高频变化和突变事件。要认知这些变化,古气候记录的时间分辨率要达到"年-年代际"。因此,寻求时间跨度长、连续性好、信息丰富的高分辨率记录是过去全球变化研究面临的主要任务之一。玛珥湖为火山射汽喷发形成的封闭湖泊,由于其独特的形成机制及水文背景,使其能够提供数万年乃至几十万年连续稳定的沉积记录,是高分辨率古气候、古环境变化研究的重要对象。中国玛珥湖得天独厚,从热带到寒温带均有分布,为系统研究中国不同气候区各种时间尺度古气候变化规律提供了理想材料。本文基于中国玛珥湖的分布及沉积特征,探讨玛珥湖沉积记录能够为古全球变化研究做出怎样的贡献,解决什么科学问题,具体包括以下三个方面的内容:(1)在轨道尺度上,精确定位现代气候在地质历史中的位置是未来最具挑战性的科学问题之一。我国热带地区玛珥湖沉积物跨越了至少4个冰期-间冰期旋回,能够为理解冰期驱动机制、下一次冰期来临、高低纬关联等关键科学问题提供多学科数据;(2)千年尺度古气候变化,其成因可能源于不同的动力学机制,是气候系统对各种外部和内部驱动因子响应的结果,因此千年震荡可能存在明显的时空差异。集成不同气候带的玛珥湖沉积记录将为理解千年震荡规律及其驱动因子做出贡献;(3)年-年代际气候变化是预测未来气候变化的基础,PAGES、IPCC以及PAGES-Asia 2K均将过去2千年来气候变化作为预测未来几十年至百年尺度上重大全球变化的背景,并为此构建全球数据体系,玛珥湖沉积特别是纹层沉积记录能够填补某些地区高分辨率数据的空白。

Southern Ocean SST Variability and Its Relationship with ENSO on Inter-Decadal Time Scales

Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with E1 Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.

Climate modulation on sea surface height in China seas

The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, the CORA sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） is decomposed, and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale, the first principal component （PC1） is significant positively correlated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. On the decadal timescale, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO） has significant negative correlation with PC 1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition, the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated, with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.

Variability of Tropical Cyclone in High Frequent Occurrence Regions over the Western North Pacific

In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.

Long Term Sea Level Change and Water Mass Balance in the South China Sea

Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993-2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea, The altime- ter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of （3.5±0.9）mmyr-1 during the period 1993-2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly distorted by the relatively short time interval and the large inter-decadal variability, which apparently exists in both the thermosteric sea level and the observed sea level. Long term thermosteric sea level from 1945 to 2004 gave a rising rate of 0.15±0.06 mmyr-1. Tide gauge＇data revealed this discrepancy and the regional distributions of the sea-level trends. Both the ＇real＇ and the ther- mosteric sea level showed a good correspondence to ENSO： decreasing during El Nino years and increasing during La Nina years. Amplitude and phase differences between the ＇real＇ sea level and the thermosteic sea level were substantially revealed on both sea- sonal and interannual time scales. As one of the possible factors, the freshwater flux might play an important role in balancing the water mass.

Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in India on Inter-Annual and Decadal Time Scales

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall （ISMR） exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over the westem Pacific Ocean.These anomalies persist until the following monsoon,which yields normal or excessive rainfall.Monsoon rainfall in India has shown decadal variability in the form of 30 year epochs of alternately occurring frequent and infrequent drought monsoons since 1841,when rainfall measurements began in India.Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well known decadal oscillations in SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have the same period of approximately 60 years and nearly the same temporal phase.In both of these variabilities,anomalies in monsoon heat source,such as deep convection,and middle latitude westerlies of the upper troposphere over south Asia have prominent roles.

MULTI-TIMESCALE VARIATIONS OF SOMALI JET AND ITS RELATION WITH PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Based on the ERA reanalysis winds data, the multi-time scale variations of Somali jet are analyzed synthetically. The jet's influences on rainfall in China on interannual, interdecadal and sub-monthly scales are also studied using correlation and composite analyses. The results demonstrate that the interdecadal variations of the jet are significant.The Somali jet became weaker in the 1960 s and became the weakest in the early 1970 s before enhancing slowly in the late 1970 s. Moreover, the relation between the Somali jet and summer precipitation in China is close, but varies on different timescales. Preliminary analysis shows that the intensity variations in May and June during the early days of establishment are well correlated with summer precipitation in China. The Somali jet intensity on the interdecadal scale is closely related with interdecadal variations of the precipitation in China. Regardless of leading or contemporaneous correlation, the correlations between the Somali jet intensity and the rainfall in northern and southern China show obvious interdecadal variations. Moreover, the link between the anomalies of the jet intensity in May-August and precipitation evolution on synoptic scale in China is further studied. China has more rainfall with positive anomalies of the Somali jet but less rainfall with negative anomalies during the active period of the jet. The influence of positive Somali jet anomalies on China precipitation is more evident.