克孜尔水库跨断层形变年变特征分析

通过对克孜尔水库跨断层形变特征进行分析,结果显示:①垂直形变每年3～4月、10～11月分别为峰、谷值时间;水平形变每年6～7月、1月分别为峰、谷值时间。②垂直变形的峰—谷时间间隔在1997年之前多为5～8个月,1998年后多为1～3个月;谷—峰值时间间隔在1997年前多为4～7个月,1998年后多在8～11个月。水平形变在1994年之前峰—谷值时间间隔多为6～7个月,1995年后为7～9个月;谷—峰值时间间隔1994年前多为5～6个月,1995年后多为3～5个月。③垂直形变的谷—峰值差在1984年前比较平稳,之后变化较大;1990年之前峰—谷值波动较大,1993年之后明显减小。水平形变的峰—谷值、谷—峰值差在1997年之前变化较大,之后变化明显减小。④水库施工及蓄水初期对跨断层形变有显著影响,尤其对垂直形变的影响特别明显。

2014年云南鲁甸M_S6.5地震前水管倾斜特征分析

选取2008年1月1日~2014年9月14日云南省前兆台网昭通、楚雄等6个台站的水管倾斜数据,通过对比同一台站、不同年份的水管倾斜年变曲线,对这6个台站的水管倾斜年变特征进行研究。对比分析了昭通、昆明等6个台站的水管倾斜在鲁甸MS6.5地震前的响应特征,结果表明：鲁甸MS6.5地震前昭通台水管倾斜EW向和楚雄台水管倾斜NS、EW向均表现出了一定的异常特征。

新疆OLR基本特征及强震前的异常现象

利用美国国家环境监测中心的NOAA卫星长波辐射(OLR)月际资料进行数据的月距平、涡度场计算等处理,总结分析了新疆地区长波辐射场的基本特征。对2003年以来新疆及其周边地区发生的中强震进行研究,发现在部分地震前震中及附近地区出现较明显的高值辐射异常,认为这种现象可能与强震前的地-气系统变化有关。应用OLR资料进行新疆地区的地震趋势预测研究可在一定程度上弥补前兆台网监测能力的不足。

河北昌黎台多极距观测数据和地下结构分析

利用河北昌黎台近一年的多极距观测数据,分析各个测道的年变特征,发现随观测极距的增大,各测道年变特征也不尽相同,体现了降雨对年变低点相位的影响随地层深度增加而滞后的特点。同时将多极距观测值与理论值进行对比分析,发现观测误差均小于1,上两层误差略大于下三层。结合该台站最新打井资料,利用电测深数据反演,得到昌黎台新的电性结构模型:h1=2.6m、ρ1=36.0Ω·m;h2=14.4m、ρ2=528.6Ω·m;h3=75.8m、ρ3=38.5Ω·m;h4=∞、ρ4=817.0Ω·m,与历史文献略有差别。

An interdecadal change of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea in the early 1990s

Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis in the South China Sea （SCS） during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that during 1979-1993 （27）. During the TC peak season （July-September, JAS）, there were 43 TCs fi＇om 1994-2008, but only 17 during 1979-1993. For July in particular, 13 TCs formed from 1994-2008, but there were none during 1979-1993. The change in TC number is associated with changes of key environmental conditions in atmosphere and ocean. Compared to 1979-1993, the subtropical high was significantly weaker and was displaced more eastward during 1994-2008. In the former period, a stronger subtropical high induced downward flow, inhibiting TC formation. In the latter period, vertical wind shear and outgoing longwave radiation all weakened. Mid-level （850-500 hPa） humidity, and relative vorticity were higher. Sea surface temperature and upper layer heat content were also higher in the area. All these factors favor TC genesis during the latter period. The decadal change of TC genesis led to more landfalling TCs in Southern China during the period 1994-2008, which contributed to an abrupt increase in regional rainfall.

Response of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset to air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean

We objectively define the onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, after having evaluated previous studies and considered various factors. Then, interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the SCS summer monsoon onset are analyzed. In addition, we calculate air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean using the advanced method of CORARE3.0, based on satellite remote sensing data. The onset variation cycle has remarkable interdecadal variability with cycles of 16 a and 28 a. Correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean and the SCS summer monsoon indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2011 and 2012. The forecast is that the onset date of 2011 will be normal or 1 pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in 2012 will be 1-2 pentads later.

Features of Climate Change in Northwest China during 1961-2010

In this study, observational data from 141 meteorological stations in Northwest China, including temperature, precipitation, dust storm, gale days and wind speed, were analyzed statistically to gain insight of the features of basic climate index and extreme climate events. The results showed that the annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature rose significantly, and the rising rate of the annual mean temperature is 0.27℃ per decade; the extreme high temperature days have increased; the interdecadal change of annual precipitation is marked, and the precipitation in winter and summer increased slightly, while decreased slightly in spring and autumn. The annual precipitation increased in the area west of the Yellow River, whereas decreased in the area east of the river. The drought had an increasing trend. There were 17 droughts during 1961-2010, and 10 droughts from 1991 to 2010. The number of droughts in spring and autumn increased, while decreased in summer.

Influences of the interannual variability of vegetation LAI on surface temperature

The influences of interannual variability of vegetation LAI on surface temperature are investigated via two ensemble simulations, applying the Community Earth System Model. The interannual LAI, derived from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies NDVI for the period 1982-2011, and its associated climatological LAI, are used in the two ensemble simulations, respectively.The results show that the signals of the influences, represented as ensemble-mean differences, are generally weaker than the noises of the atmospheric variability, represented as one standard deviation of the ensemble differences. Spatially, the signals are stronger over the tropics compared with the mid-high latitudes. Such stronger signals are contributed by the significant linearity between LAI and surface temperature, which is mainly caused via the influences of LAI on evapotranspiration.The maximum amplitudes of the influences on the interannual variability of surface temperature are high and thus deserve full consideration. However, the mean magnitudes of influences are small because of the small changes in the amplitudes of LAI. This work only investigates the influences of the interannual variability of LAI and does not consider interannual changes in other vegetation characteristics, such as canopy height and fractional cover. Further work involving dynamic vegetation models may be needed to investigate the influences of vegetation variability.

FEATURES AND COMPARISONS OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL VARIATIONS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC MONSOON SUBSYSTEMS

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, Climate Diagnostics Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) results, and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST), have been utilized in this paper to study the quasi-biennial variations in Asia-Pacific monsoon subsystems and associated SST anomalies (SSTA) and wind anomalies. Four monsoon indices are computed from NCEP/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis to represent the South Asian monsoon (SAM), South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), Western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) and East Asian monsoon (EAM), respectively. The quasi-biennial periods are very significant in Asia-Pacific monsoons (as discovered by power spectrum analysis), and for SAM and EAM---with moderate effects by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)---the quasi-biennial periods are the most important factor. For SCSSM and WNPM (once again due to the effects of ENSO), the quasi-biennial periods are of secondary durations. There are obvious interdecadal variations in the quasi-biennial modes of the Asia-Pacific monsoon, so in the negative phase the biennial modes will not be significant or outstanding. The wind anomalies and SSTA associated with the biennial modes are very different in the SAM, WNPM and EAM regions. Since the WNPM and SCSSM are very similar in the biennial modes, they can be combined into one subsystem, called SCS/WNPM.

Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China

The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought research.However,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same time.Therefore,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought indices.Using terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in China,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for China.However,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted accordingly.Some problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of empiricalparameters.The SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid areas.This is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these areas.Consequently,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,respectively.The CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000,but not for arid and semiarid areas after 2000.Consistent with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet variations.Although the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven drought indices during 1961-2013 are consistent,obvious differences exist among the values of drought areas,which might be attributable to the definitions of the drought indices in addition to climatic change.

Zircon SHRIMP geochronology and Nd-Pb isotopic characteristics of the meta-basalt in the central part of Tibetan Plateau's Qiangtang region

A small-sized meta-basic rock system is discovered in Qilongwuru Gully of Central Qiangtang’s Shuanghu region and contains a meta-basalt and garnet-bearing plagioclase amphibolite.The zircon U/Pb age of this meta-basalt by SHRIMP analysis is463.3±4.7 Ma,suggesting that this lava formed in the Middle Ordovician,and is consistent with that of the meta-basic rocks in the Taoxing Lake and Guoganjianian Mountain ophiolite found in the Qiangtang plate.As this lava system bears similar geochemistry to N-MORB,it might be a component of ophiolite that represents the trail of the extinction of the Proto-Tethys,suggesting that the formation of Proto-Tethys oceanic basin in the Longmu Co-Shuanghu suture zone could date as far back as to the Middle Ordovician.Isotopic geochemical analysis indicates that the magma source area consists of both depleted mantle(DM)and enriched mantle(EMII)end members and bears Dupal anomaly,similar to that of the Paleo-Tethys in the Neo-Tethys represented by the Yarlung-Tsangpo suture zone,the Paleo-Tethys represented by the Changning-Menglian suture zone,and the Paleo-Tethys in Sanjiang region.This suggests that they have inherited the attribute of the Proto-Tethys mantle domain,and the Longmu Co-Shuanghu suture zone may be a representative of the northern boundary of Gondwana.

Seasonal Effect of Geomorphological Chronosequence Features on Soil Biota Dynamics

Numerous studies have been devoted to the physical-chemical weathering processes leading to the creation of unique soil formations having their own history that induce soil-biotic diversity.However,the extent to which unique geomorphic formations influence soil biotic seasonal variation is not clear.Our aim was to define seasonal variations of soil biota in soils of different-aged terraces of the Makhtesh Ramon anticline erosional cirque in southern Israel.The strong effect of Makhtesh Ramon (Ramon crater) erosional fluvial terrace age initiated by climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene- Early Holocene period on seasonal variations in both soil properties and the abundance and composition of soil biota were demonstrated.However,age dependence was not constant and values for observed soil properties and microbial activity were negligible between younger and older terraces for certain seasons,while free-living nematodes along with bacterial-feeding group were strongly dependent on the geomorphic features of the ages throughout the study period.