东太平洋赤道海温对大气环流的影响

东太平洋赤道冷水区海温(0°-10°S，180°W-90°W57纲格历年逐月海温距平和，本文用SST表示)，是三大洋中海温变化最大的海区。研究表明，SST变化对世界及我国天气、农业和海洋渔业等均有显著的影响。因此，近年来SST对大气环流影响的研究颇受重视。本文在前人研究的基础上，进一步分析了1950-1980年间，SST对北半球副高、北太平洋副高、西北太平洋副高、印度副高等(本文统称副高)及中高纬度一些永久或半永久性大气环流系统滞后半年左右的相关关系，以探讨东太平洋赤道海温与我国及世界天气遥相关的物理过程。

Interannual variations in energy conversion and interaction between the mesoscale eddy field and mean flow in the Kuroshio south of Japan

Using 19-year satellite altimetric data, variations in the eddy kinetic energy, energy exchanges and interaction between the eddy fi eld and mean fl ow are discussed for the Kuroshio south of Japan. In the seasonal cycle, the eddy kinetic energy level is a minimum in December/January and a maximum in April/May. In addition to seasonal variations, the eddy kinetic energy undergoes interannual changes. The energy transfers mainly from the mean fl ow to the eddy fi eld in the Kuroshio south of Japan, and dominant energy exchanges mainly occur along the Kuroshio path south of Japan in each year from 1993 to 2011. In addition, there is often barotropic instability south of Honshu. Regarding interactions between the eddy fi eld and mean fl ow, cyclonic and anticyclonic accelerations are also found along the Kuroshio path and they fl ank each other. There is cyclonic acceleration always imposed on southeast of Kyushu, and anticyclonic acceleration dominates south of Honshu from 2001 to mid-2005. Reynolds stress is used to explain the dynamic process of energy exchange. Furthermore, lag-correlation and linear regression analysis show that variability of the energy conversion rate and Reynolds stress involve responses to eddy acceleration at two time scales. The enhanced eddy acceleration induces large Reynolds stress, and enhanced Reynolds stress or barotropic instability further enforces energy transfer from the mean fl ow to the eddy fi eld.

Interdecadal Variability of Spring Precipitation over South China and Its Associated Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport

The characteristics of spring precipitation and water vapor transport in South China were analyzed by using observational data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. The results show that, during the spring, each component of the water cycle (precipitation, wind field, specific humidity, water vapor transport, etc.) in South China exhibits a notable interdecadal variability. An abrupt increase in spring precipitation occurred in the early 1970s. During the dry period from 1958 to 1971, a water vapor flux divergence (positive divQ) existed in South China, which may have led to the deficiency in rainfall. However, during the wet period from 1973 to 1989, there was a remarkable water vapor flux convergence (negative divQ) in South China, which may have resulted in the higher rainfall. The interdecadal variability of water vapor transport is closely related to the interdecadal variability of wind fields, although the interdecadal variability of specific humidity also plays a role to some extent, and the interdecadal variability of the zonal water vapor transport contributes much more to the interdecadal variability of spring precipitation than the meridional water vapor transport.

The Impacts of the Interannual Variability of Vegetation on the Interannual Variability of Global Evapotranspiration: A Modeling Study

The impact of the interannual variability (IAV) of vegetation on the IAV of evapotranspiration is investigated with the Community Land Model (CLM3.0) and modified Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). Two sets of 50-year off-line simulations are used in this study. The simulations begin with the same initial surface-water and heat states and are driven by the same atmospheric forcing data. The vegetation exhibits interannual variability in one simulation but not in the other simulation. However, the climatological means for the vegetation are the same. The IAV of the 50-year annual total evapotranspiration and its three partitions (ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration) are analyzed. The global distribution of the evapotranspiration IAV and the statistics of evapotranspiration and its components in different ecosystems show that the IAV of ground evaporation is generally large in areas dominated by grass and deciduous trees, whereas the IAV of canopy evaporation and transpiration is large in areas dominated by bare soil and shrubs. For ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration, the changes in IAV are larger than the mean state over most grasslands and shrublands. The study of two sites with the same IAV in the leaf area index (LAI) shows that the component with the smaller contribution to the total evapotranspiration is more sensitive to the IAV of vegetation. The IAV of the three components of evapotranspiration increases with the IAV of the fractional coverage (FC) and the LAI. The ground evaporation IAV shows the greatest increase, whereas the canopy evaporation shows the smallest increase.

Interannual salinity variability of the Northern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass

This paper discusses the interannual variability of the Northern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(NYSCWM) and the factors that influence it,based on survey data from the 1976–2006 national standard section and the Korea Oceanographic Data Center,monthly E-P flux data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,and meridional wind speed data from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. The results show that:1) the mean salinity of the NYSCWM center has a slightly decreasing trend,which is not consistent with the high salinity center; 2) both the southern salinity front and the halocline of the NYSCWM display a weakening trend,which indicates that the difference between the NYSCWM and coastal water decreases; 3) the Yellow Sea Warm Current intrusion,the E-P flux of the northern Yellow Sea,and the strength of the winter monsoon will affect the NYSCWM salinity during the following summer.

Temporal Variations of Water Discharge and Sediment Load of Huanghe River,China

Based on the data from gauging stations, the changes in water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe （Yellow） River were analyzed by using the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method. The results show that the periodic oscillation of water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River occurs at the interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal scales, caused by the periodic oscillations of precipitation, and E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO） af- fects water discharge by influencing precipitation distribution and contributes to periodic varations in precipitation and water discharge at interannual timescale. The water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River have decreased since the 1960s under the influence of precipitation and huamn activities, and human activities attribute more than precipitation to the reduction in the water discharge and sediment load, furthermore, water abstraction and water-soil conservation practices are the main causes of the decrease in water discharge and sediment load, respectively. The reduction in sediment load has directly impacted on the lower reaches of the Huanghe River and the river delta, causing considerable erosion of the river channel in the lower reaches since the 1970s along with River Delta changing siltation into erosion around 2000.

A New Method for Predicting the Decadal Component of Global SST

A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades 2011-2040. The internal decadal component is derived by harmonic wave expansion analyses based on the quasiperiodic evolution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as obtained from observational SST datasets. Furthermore, the external decadal component induced by anthropogenic forcing is assessed with a second-order fit based on the ensemble of projected SSTs in the experiments with multiple coupled climate models associated with the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) under the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. A validation for the years from 2002 to 2010 based on a comparison of the predicted and the observed SST and their spatial correlation, as well as the root mean square error (RMSE), suggests that the approach is reasonable overall. In addition, the predicted results over the 50°S-50°N global band, the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the North and the South Atlantic Ocean are presented.

Difference in the Interdecadal Variability of Spring and Summer Sensible Heat Fluxes over Northwest China

The present study investigates the difference in interdecadal variability of the spring and summer sensible heat fluxes over Northwest China by using station observations from 1960 to 2000. It was found that the spring sensible heat flux over Northwest China was greater during the period from the late 1970s to the 1990s than during the period from the 1960s to the mid-1970s. The summer sensible heat flux was smaller in the late 1980s through the 1990s than it was in the 1970s through the early 1980s. Both the spring and summer land-air temperature differences over Northwest China displayed an obvious interdecadal increase in the late 1970s. Both the spring and summer surface wind speeds experienced an obvious interdecadal weakening in the late 1970s. The change in the surface wind speed played a more important role in the interdecadal variations in sensible heat flux during the summer, whereas the change in the land-air temperature difference was more important for the interdecadal variations in sensible heat flux in the spring. This difference was related to seasonal changes in the mean land-air temperature difference and the surface wind speed. Further analysis indicated that the increase in the spring land surface temperature in Northwest China was related to an increase in surface net radiation.

Decadal variations in diatoms and dinoflagellates on the inner shelf of the East China Sea, China

Diatoms and dinoflagellates are two major groups ofphytoplankton that flourish in the oceans, particularly in coastal zone and upwelling systems, and their contrasting production have been reported in several world seas. However, this information is not available in the coastal East China Sea （ECS）. Thus, to investigate and compare the decadal trends in diatoms and dinoflagellates, a sediment core, 47-cm long, was collected from the coastal zone of the ECS. Sediment chlorophyll-a （Chl-a）, phytoplankton-group specifc pigment signatures of diatoms and dinoflagellates, and diatom valve concentrations were determined. The sediment core covered the period from 1961 to 2011 AD. The chlorophyll-a contents ranged from 2.32 to 73 gg/g dry sediment （dw） and averaged 9.81 gg/g dw. Diatom absolute abundance ranged from 29 152 to 177 501 valve/gram （v/g） dw and averaged 72 137 v/g dw. Diatom valve and diatom specific pigment marker concentrations were not significantly correlated. Peridinin increased after the 1980s in line with intensified use of fertilizer and related increases in nutrient inputs into the marine environment. The increased occurrence of dinoflagellate dominance after the 1980s can be mostly explained by the increase in nutrients. However, the contribution of dinoflagellates to total phytoplankton production （Chl-a） decreased during the final decade of this study, probably because of the overwhelming increase in diatom production that corresponded with the construction of the Three Gorges Dam （TGD） and related light availability. Similarly, the mean ratio of fucoxanthin/peridinin for the period from 1982 to 2001 was 6% less than for 1961 to 1982, while the ratio for 2001 to 2011 was 45.3% greater than for 1982 to 2001. The decadal variation in the fucoxanthirdperidinin ratio implies that dinoflagellate production had been gradually increasing until 2001. We suggest that the observed changes can be explained by anthropogenic impacts, such as nutrient loading and dam construction.

Impact of ENSO events on the interannual variability of Hadley circulation extents in boreal winter

The interannual variability of the boreal winter Hadley circulation extents during the period of 1979e2014 and its links to El Ni^no-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) were investigated by using reanalysis datasets. Results showed that the El Ni^no(La Ni^na) events can induce the shrinking(expansion) of Hadley circulation extent in the Southern Hemisphere. For the Northern Hemisphere, El Ni^no(La Ni^na) mainly leads to shrinking(expansion) of the Hadley circulation extent in the middle and lower troposphere and expansion(shrinking) of the Hadley circulation extent in the upper troposphere. The ENSO associated meridional temperature gradients have close relationship with the Hadley circulation extents in both Hemispheres. But in the Northern Hemisphere, the ENSO associated eddy momentum flux divergence plays more important role in affecting the Hadley circulation extent than the meridional temperature gradient because of the small local Rossby number. In the Southern Hemisphere, as the ENSO induced eddy momentum flux divergence is small, the meridional temperature gradient dominates the change of the Hadley circulation extent.

Response of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset to air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean

We objectively define the onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, after having evaluated previous studies and considered various factors. Then, interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the SCS summer monsoon onset are analyzed. In addition, we calculate air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean using the advanced method of CORARE3.0, based on satellite remote sensing data. The onset variation cycle has remarkable interdecadal variability with cycles of 16 a and 28 a. Correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean and the SCS summer monsoon indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2011 and 2012. The forecast is that the onset date of 2011 will be normal or 1 pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in 2012 will be 1-2 pentads later.

MULTI-TIMESCALE VARIATIONS OF SOMALI JET AND ITS RELATION WITH PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Based on the ERA reanalysis winds data, the multi-time scale variations of Somali jet are analyzed synthetically. The jet's influences on rainfall in China on interannual, interdecadal and sub-monthly scales are also studied using correlation and composite analyses. The results demonstrate that the interdecadal variations of the jet are significant.The Somali jet became weaker in the 1960 s and became the weakest in the early 1970 s before enhancing slowly in the late 1970 s. Moreover, the relation between the Somali jet and summer precipitation in China is close, but varies on different timescales. Preliminary analysis shows that the intensity variations in May and June during the early days of establishment are well correlated with summer precipitation in China. The Somali jet intensity on the interdecadal scale is closely related with interdecadal variations of the precipitation in China. Regardless of leading or contemporaneous correlation, the correlations between the Somali jet intensity and the rainfall in northern and southern China show obvious interdecadal variations. Moreover, the link between the anomalies of the jet intensity in May-August and precipitation evolution on synoptic scale in China is further studied. China has more rainfall with positive anomalies of the Somali jet but less rainfall with negative anomalies during the active period of the jet. The influence of positive Somali jet anomalies on China precipitation is more evident.

Intra-Annual Variability of Diurnal Cycle Precipitation over China from 1960–2000

Characteristics of diurnal cycle precipitation over China are investigated using twice-daily observations by the China Meteorological Administration during 1960–2000. Characteristics investigated include nighttime/daytime precipitation amount(PA), intensity, and frequency. Geographically, the region is separated into western and eastern China by the 110°E longitude. Our analysis shows that there generally is more night-time than daytime precipitation in western China, particularly in the Sichuan Basin. Over eastern China, the opposite holds true, particularly along the southeast coast. Regional average monthly daytime and night-time precipitation peaks in the same month for both western and eastern China. Over western China, monthly night-time precipitation is always greater than that during daytime, but the night-time precipitation frequency(PF) is only greater in non-summer(June–August) months. Over eastern China, daytime precipitation is greater than that in the night-time during the warm season(May–August) in both amount and frequency. The night-day difference(night-time minus daytime) in PA over western China is mainly influenced by precipitation intensity, while over eastern China the night-day difference in rainfall amount is mostly driven by PF.

Trend of Antarctic Ozone Hole and Its Influencing Factors

Influencing factors, and variations and trends of Antarctic ozone hole in recent decades are analyzed, and sudden change processes of ozone at Zhongshan station and the effect of atmospheric dynamic processes on ozone changes are also discussed by using the satellite ozone data and the ground-measured ozone data at two Antarctic stations as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and stratospheric temperature are two important factors influencing the ozone hole. The column ozone at Zhongshan and Syowa stations is significantly related with EESC and stratospheric temperature, which means that even though the two stations are both located on the edge of the ozone hole, EESC and stratospheric temperature still played a very important role in column ozone changes, and mean while verifies that EESC is applicable on the coast of east Antarctic continent. Decadal changes in EESC are similar with those of the ozone hole, and inter-annual variations of ozone are closely related with stratospheric temperature. Based on the relation of EESC and ozone hole size, it can be projected that the ozone hole size will gradually reduce to the 1980's level from 2010 to around 2070. Of course there might exist many uncertainties in the projection, which therefore needs to be further studied.

Interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon and its relationship with latent heat flux in the Pacific Ocean

We analyzed interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon and its relationship with latent heat flux in the Pacific Ocean, using NCEP wind field and OAFlux heat flux datasets. Results indicate that South China Sea monsoon intensity had an obvious interdecadal variation with a decreasing trend. Variability of the monsoon was significantly correlated with latent heat flux in the Kuroshio area and tropical Pacific Ocean. Variability of latent heat flux in the Kuroshio area had an interdecadal increasing trend, while that in the tropical Pacific Ocean had an interdecadal decreasing trend. Latent heat flux variability in these two sea areas was used to establish a latent heat flux index, which had positive correlation with variability of the South China Sea monsoon. When the latent heat flux was 18 months ahead of the South China Sea monsoon, the correlation coefficient maximized at 0.58 (N=612), with a 99.9% significance level of 0.15. Thus, it is suggested that latent heat flux variability in the two areas contributes greatly to interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon.

Temporal Evolution of Carbon Storage in Chinese Tea Plantations from 1950 to 2010

Tea （Camellia sinensis）, an economically important crop grown in mountain regions, has been planted for thousands of years in South China. Tea plantations can potentially act as carbon （C） sink in local agrosystems due to their high plant biomass and provide soil conservation service. To assess the contribution of tea plantations to C sequestration, the chronosequence variations of C storage were assessed in the plants and soils （0-20 cm） of tea plantations in China from 1950 to 2010, and then the inter-annual and decadal variabilities of total C storage were estimated. TotM C stocks in tea plants and soils in 2010 were 34.4 and 93.45 Tg, respectively. Carbon sequestration from 1950 to 2010 was 30.6 and 39.0 Tg in the plants and soils, respectively. The highest C sequestration happened during the 1980s and the lowest during the 1950s. The decadal average C sequestration rate ranged from 20.4 to 113.9 g m2 year-1 in the standing tea plants, and from 54.6 to 98.8 g m-2 year-1 in soils during the period of 1950 to 2010. The average ratio of C storage in soils to that in plants was 3.00 ± 0.35 before 1970 and 2.44 ±0.18 after 1970. The results suggested that tea plantation ecosystems made an important contribution to the C sinks in Chinese tea-producing regions.

Quantifying the interannual litterfall variations in China’s forest ecosystems

Aims Litterfall is a key parameter in forest biogeochemical cycle and fire risk prediction.However,considerable uncertainty remains regarding the litterfall variations with forest ages.Quantifying the interannual variation of forest litterfall is crucial for reducing uncertainties in large-scale litterfall prediction.Methods Based on the available dataset(N=318)with continuous multi-year(≥2 years)measurements of litterfall in Chinese planted and secondary forests,coefficient of variation(CV),variation percent(V_(P)),and the ratio of next-year litterfall to current-year litterfall were used as the indexes to quantify the interannual variability in litterfall.Important Findings The interannual variations of litterfall showed a declining trend with increasing age from 1 to 90 years.The litterfall variations were the largest in 1-10 years(mean CV=23.51%and mean V_(P)=−28.59%to 20.89%),which were mainly from tree growth(mean ratio of next-year to current-year=1.20).In 11-40 years,the interannual variations of litterfall gradually decreased but still varied widely,mean CV was~18%and mean V_(P) ranged from−17.69%to 21.19%.In 41-90 years,the interannual variations minimized to 8.98%in mean CV and~8%in mean V_(P).As a result,forest litterfall remained relatively low and constant when stand age was larger than 40 years.This result was different from the previous assumptions that forest litterfall reached relatively stable when stand age was larger than 30,20 or even 15 years.Our findings can improve the knowledge about forest litter ecology and provide the groundwork for carbon budget and biogeochemical cycle models at a large scale.

Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China

Five General Circulation Model(GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21 st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISIMIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evapotranspiration(ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation(P) per unit warming across the country, especially for South China, which led to a notable decrease of surface water variability(P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/ year and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02% to -0.13%/year were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 0.41%/year and 0.90%/year, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks(e.g., floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with a steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21 st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide a multi-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for China on a river basin, regional, or as a whole.

Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China

The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought research.However,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same time.Therefore,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought indices.Using terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in China,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for China.However,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted accordingly.Some problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of empiricalparameters.The SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid areas.This is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these areas.Consequently,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,respectively.The CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000,but not for arid and semiarid areas after 2000.Consistent with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet variations.Although the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven drought indices during 1961-2013 are consistent,obvious differences exist among the values of drought areas,which might be attributable to the definitions of the drought indices in addition to climatic change.

Interannual variability in soil respiration from terrestrial ecosystems in China and its response to climate change

Soil respiration is an important process in terrestrial carbon cycle.Concerning terrestrial ecosystems in China, quantifying the spatiotemporal pattern of soil respiration at the regional scale is critical in providing a theoretical basis for evaluating carbon budget.In this study, we used an empirically based, semi-mechanistic model including climate and soil properties to estimate annual soil respiration from terrestrial ecosystems in China from 1970 to 2009.We further analyzed the relationship between interannual variability in soil respiration and climatic factors (air temperature and precipitation).Results indicated that the distribution of annual soil respiration showed clear spatial patterns.The highest and lowest annual soil respiration rates appeared in southeastern China and northwestern China, respectively, which was in accordance with the spatial patterns of mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation.Although the mean annual air temperature in northwestern China was higher than that in some regions of northeastern china, a greater topsoil organic carbon storage in northeastern China might result in the higher annual soil respiration in this region.By contrast, lower temperature, less precipitation and smaller topsoil organic carbon pool incurred the lowest annual soil respiration in northwestern China.Annual soil respiration from terrestrial ecosystems in China varied from 4.58 to 5.19 PgCa-1 between 1970 and 2009.During this time period, on average, annual soil respiration was estimated to be 4.83 PgCa-1 .Annual soil respiration in China accounted for 4.93%-6.01% of the global annual soil CO2 emission.The interannual variability in soil respiration depended on the interannual variability in precipitation and mean air temperature.In order to reduce the uncertainty in estimating annual soil respiration at regional scale, more in situ measurements of soil respiration and relevant factors (e.g.climate, soil and vegetation) should be made simultaneously and historical soil property data sets should also be established.