年际时间尺度上北太平洋副热带高压对ENSO的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料、Hadley中心海表面温度资料和美国马里兰大学(UMD)的SODA6海洋再分析资料,针对北太平洋副热带高压的完整系统(简称副高),定义了定量化表征500hPa高度场和海平面气压场(SLP)副高的面积及强度指数,揭示了在年际时间尺度上超前于ENSO事件的SLP副高异常特征及其对ENSO事件建立的触发作用。通过相关及合成分析的研究结果表明,在年际时间尺度上,前期SLP副高的异常变化可以触发ENSO事件,而与SLP副高相联系的热带西太平洋表面风场异常变化起着重要的作用。

南海及周边地区TBB年及以上时间尺度振荡特征诊断研究

应用小波变换方法，对1980～1997年逐日TBB资料进行分析，发现南海地区TBB年时间尺度(约6～15个月)和年际时间尺度(2～5年)变化显著。年时间尺度变化，在纬向上东传特征明显，在经向上具有赤道反对称的分布特征。南海地区TBB年时间尺度变化振幅与东太平洋海温异常之间存在调制作用。TBB年际时间尺度变化具有lO年际变化特征，1980年代年际时间尺度变化显著，1990年代明显减弱。该时间尺度变化与Nino3区海温异常有非常显著的关系，El Nino期间，南海地区TBB较高，对流相对较弱；La Nina期间，南海地区TBB较低，对流较强，表明南海地区大气环流对太平洋海温异常有明显的响应。

极移半年振荡的年际变化与北大西洋涛动

北大西洋涛动(NAO)是全球三大气象涛动之一,它是海气相互作用的产物.采用标准化的北大西洋涛动指数(NAOI)来表示NAO的强度.由观测极移参数反演得到极移激发函数,对此进行小波振幅谱分析,从而获得极移激发函数半年振荡的时频变化.研究表明,极移激发函数半年振荡沿东经90°方向分量的振幅年际变化与NAO年际变化呈明显相关,并且主要是大气和海洋角动量变化共同激发的结果.

基于GIS的多权重年际空气质量模型研究

随着工业技术的发展,空气质量逐渐恶化,空气污染已经发展为全人类共同面对的严峻问题。随着监测技术的提升,空气污染数据迅速增加,人们对空气质量时空变化的研究逐渐向年际及年代际时间尺度靠拢。而现阶段对年际时间尺度空气质量评价的方法较少,常用年均AQI作为评价指标。由于AQI是单一污染物指数,抵消了多种污染物的累计效应,产生的模糊信息会掩盖其他污染物对健康的实际影响。因此,该研究基于中国AQI计算方法提出了一种基于多权重的特定的年际时间尺度空气质量评价模型——综合空气质量指数(CAQI),用于修正中国空气质量指数在年际空气质量评价中的缺陷。通过对模型验证发现该模型具有良好的性能,在年际时间尺度空气质量评价中效果较好,具有更高的合理性。

大洋间SST遥联与亚太夏季风异常的关系

用奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)方法,给出了四季年代际和年际时间尺度上北大西洋和北太平洋海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)的显著遥相关。用SVD主模态时间系数构造了海温异常指数I,分析了它们与同期亚太夏季风和我国东部夏季降水异常的关系。结果表明:两大洋间的SST遥联在年际、年代际时间尺度上都与亚太夏季风相关,其中,年际尺度的两大洋SST遥联与长江流域的降水存在显著相关。

NCEP/CFSR再分析耦合资料中MJO对ENSO的影响研究

基于1979—2008年NCEP/CFSR再分析耦合数据集,研究了冬季MJO对ENSO事件的影响。结果表明,在年际时间尺度以及长期的年代际时间尺度上,热带印度洋MJO活动的强弱性都可以影响热带中东太平洋ENSO事件的发生和发展。在年际时间尺度上,ENSO发生前期征兆的赤道中东太平洋的西风爆发事件(Westerly Wind Burst,WWB),作为MJO影响ENSO的主要途径,存在着显著的次季节时间尺度的变化。相对于气候平均的赤道太平洋西部暖池区上升而东部下沉的Walker环流,MJO正位相东传后的西风异常,减弱了低层东风和赤道东太平洋海水上翻。这一上升海流的减弱导致了中东赤道太平洋的海温升高,从而有利于ENSO暖海温事件的发生。而在年代际时间尺度上,MJO范围和强度在1998年前后出现了明显的转变,1998年之前MJO的东移范围更东,强度更强,从而导致了西太平洋西风爆发区的次季节西风异常事件更加显著,在Bjeknes正反馈机制下对应了年代际时间尺度下的强尼诺事件出现,1998年之后则与之相反。冬季MJO对ENSO影响的这一年代际特征主要体现在晚冬季节,而在早冬伴随着印度洋的增暖,MJO强度一直在逐年增加。

Temporal Variations of Water Discharge and Sediment Load of Huanghe River,China

Based on the data from gauging stations,the changes in water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe (Yellow)River were analyzed by using the empirical mode decomposition(EMD)method.The results show that the periodic oscillation of water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River occurs at the interannual,decadal,and multi-decadal scales,caused by the periodic oscillations of precipitation,and El Nio/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)affects water discharge by influencing precipitation distribution and contributes to periodic varations in precipitation and water discharge at interannual timescale.The water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River have decreased since the 1960s under the influence of precipitation and huamn activities,and human activities attribute more than precipitation to the reduction in the water discharge and sediment load,furthermore,water abstraction and water-soil conservation practices are the main causes of the decrease in water discharge and sediment load,respectively.The reduction in sediment load has directly impacted on the lower reaches of the Huanghe River and the river delta, causing considerable erosion of the river channel in the lower reaches since the 1970s along with River Delta changing siltation into erosion around 2000.

Interannual variability in the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation

We analyzed the temporal and spatial variation, and interannual variability of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation using an empirical orthogonal function method, and calculated mass transport using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation Data from 1958-2008. The meridional streamfunction field in the North Pacific tilts N-S; the Tropical Cell (TC), Subtropical Cell (STC), and Deep Tropical Cell (DTC) may be in phase on an annual time scale; the TC and the STC are out of phase on an interannual time scale, but the interannual variability of the DTC is complex. The TC and STC interannual variability is associated with ENSO (El Ni o-Southern Oscillation). The TC northward, southward, upward, and downward transports all weaken in El Ni os and strengthen in La Ni as. The STC northward and southward transports are out of phase, while the STC northward and downward transports are in phase. Sea-surface water that reaches the middle latitude and is subducted may not completely return to the tropics. The zonal wind anomalies over the central North Pacific, which control Ekman transport, and the east-west slope of the sea level may be major factors causing the TC northward and southward transport interannual variability and the STC northward and southward transports on the interannual time scale. The DTC northward and southward transports decrease during strong El Ni os and increase during strong La Ni as. DTC upward and downward transports are not strongly correlated with the Ni o-3 index and may not be completely controlled by ENSO.

Mean properties of mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio recirculation region

Using a 19-year altimetric dataset, the mean properties and spatiotemporal variations of eddies in the Kuroshio recirculation region are examined. A total of 2 001 cyclonic tracks and 1 847 anticyclonic tracks were identifi ed using a geometry-based eddy detection method. The mean radius was 57 km for cyclonic eddies and was 61 km for anticyclonic eddies, respectively, and the mean lifetime was about 10 weeks for both type eddies. There were asymmetric spatial distributions for eddy generation and eddy termination, which were domain-dependent. Mean eddy generation rates were 2.0 per week for cyclonic eddies and were 1.9 per week for anticyclonic eddies. Both type eddies tended to deform during their lifetime and had different propagation characteristics, which mainly propagated westward and southwestward with velocities 4.0–9.9 cm/s, in the Kuroshio recirculation region. Further discussion illustrates that the eddy westward speed maybe infl uenced by the combined effect of vertical shear of horizontal currents and nonlinearity of eddy. To better understand the evolution of eddy tracks, a total of 134 long-lived tracks(lifetime ≥20 weeks) were examined. Comparison between short-span eddies(lifetime ≥4 weeks and <20 weeks) and long-lived eddies is also conducted and the result shows that the short-span and long-lived eddies have similar time evolution. Finally, eddy seasonal variations and interannual changes are discussed. Correlation analysis shows that eddy activity is sensitive to the wind stress curl and meridional gradient of sea surface temperature on interannual timescales. Besides, the strength and orientation of background fl ows also have impacts on the eddy genesis.

Relationship Between Upper-Ocean Heat Content in the Tropical Indian Ocean and Summer Precipitation in China

An analysis of the Ishii ocean heat content(OHC) in the tropical Indian Ocean from the surface to 700-m depth shows that the OHC changes dramatically on the interannual timescale in the Indian Ocean.The first mode of empirical orthogonal function(EOF1) of the OHC shows that there is a strong air-sea interaction pattern in the Indian Ocean with a positive(negative) loading in the east and a negative(positive) loading in the west.This seesaw oscillation pattern influences the summer precipitation in China with a North-South reversed distribution.Composite analysis shows that during a positive(negative) OHC episode,an anomalous cyclonic(anticyclonic) circulation over the western Pacific and South China weakens(enhances) the monsoonal northward flow in the lower troposphere;meanwhile,anomalous meridional circulation connects the descending(ascending) branch over the Southeast Indian Ocean and the ascending(descending) branch in South China as well as a descending(ascending) branch over North China.Analysis of the mechanism behind these features suggests that(1) the accumulation of OHC-induced vorticity is related to the wave activity over the mid-latitudes and that(2) the meridional teleconnection induced by the Indo-Pacific air-OHC interaction appears over East Asia and the western Pacific.Both of these patterns can cause summer precipitation anomalies in China.

Impact of Preceding Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Early Autumn Precipitation over Central China

This study examined the impact of the preceding boreal summer(June–August) North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) on early autumn(September) rainfall over Central China(RCC). The results show that a significant positive correlation exists between the preceding summer NAO and the early autumn RCC on the interannual timescale. In order to understand the physical mechanism between them, the role of ocean was investigated. It was found that the strong summer NAO can induce a tripole sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the North Atlantic; this SSTA pattern can persist until early autumn. The diagnostic analysis showed that the tripole SSTA pattern excites a downstream Atlantic-Eurasian(AEA) teleconnection, which contributes to an increase in RCC. The circulation anomalies related to SSTA caused by the weak NAO are opposite, so the RCC is less than normal. The results imply that the preceding summer NAO may be regarded as a forecast factor for the early autumn RCC.

Long Term Sea Level Change and Water Mass Balance in the South China Sea

Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993–2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea. The altimeter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of (3.5±0.9) mm yr-1 during the period 1993–2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly distorted by the relatively short time interval and the large inter-decadal variability, which apparently exists in both the thermosteric sea level and the observed sea level. Long term thermosteric sea level from 1945 to 2004 gave a rising rate of 0.15±0.06 mm yr-1. Tide gauge data revealed this discrepancy and the regional distributions of the sea-level trends. Both the ‘real’ and the thermosteric sea level showed a good correspondence to ENSO: decreasing during El Nio years and increasing during La Nia years. Amplitude and phase differences between the ‘real’ sea level and the thermosteic sea level were substantially revealed on both seasonal and interannual time scales. As one of the possible factors, the freshwater flux might play an important role in balancing the water mass.

The Oscillation between Tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific:Evidence and Possible Impact on Winter Climate in China

This paper provides evidence that the variation of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific is out-of-phase with SLP fluctuation over the tropical Indian Ocean on both the interdecadal and interannual time scales.Subsequently,a SLP between tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific (TIO-NP) oscillation index is defined to indicate the variation of such out-of-phase fluctuation.Moreover,the simultaneous surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in China are closely related to TIO-NP oscillations.Below-normal surface air temperature anomalies in the northern and the eastern part of China,and less rainfall in southern China,correspond to positive TIO-NP oscillation phase with negative SLP anomalies in tropical Indian Ocean and positive anomalies in North Pacific.The TIO-NP oscillation affects China's winter climate anomalies,possibly through modulating the northeast East Asia winter monsoon.

Relationship between oceanic heat content and sea surface height on interannual time scale

The relationship between heat content and sea surface height (SSH) in the global ocean on the interannual time scale is examined with satellite altimeter measurements, historical hydrography, and model assimilation outputs. Results show that correlation between altimetric SSH and heat content in the upper 700 m calculated from Ishii data is geographically nonuniform. In the tropical ocean, heat content and SSH are strongly correlated and exhibit nearly the same interannual variations. In the polar ocean, their correlation is relatively weak. Further analysis with Simple Ocean Data Assimilation outputs shows that such nonuniform distribution is not from dynamical origin but from the limited integral depth selected to calculate heat content. The integral depth of 700m is inadequate to capture variation of the deep main thermocline in the polar region. The halosteric effect also contributes to the nonuniform pattern of correlation, because saline contraction becomes significant in the polar ocean owing to low temperature.

Variability of Tropical Cyclone in High Frequent Occurrence Regions over the Western North Pacific

In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.

Climate modulation on sea surface height in China seas

The climate modulation on the sea surface height(SSH) in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis(CORA) dataset from 1958–2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF),the CORA sea surface height anomaly(SSHa) is decomposed,and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale,the first principal component(PC1) is significant positively correlated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation(ENSO). On the decadal timescale,North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO) has significant negative correlation with PC1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition,the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated,with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.

Subthermocline anticyclonic gyre east of Mindanao and its relationship with the Mindanao Undercurrent

The quasi-permanent anticyclonic gyre(ACG) east of Mindanao is a dominant feature of the subthermocline circulation in the southern Philippine Sea, and it is believed closely associated with the continuous northward alongshore flow of the Mindanao Undercurrent(MUC). In this study, the structure and variability of this ACG were investigated using the 1950–2012 output of the Oceanic General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator(OFES), which can reproduce well the structure of the climatological intermediate-layer circulation and satellite-observed sea level variations in the southern Philippine Sea. Between 26.8–27.3 σθ, the ACG covers a large area from the Mindanao coast to 131°E and from 3°N to 10°N. Its anticyclonic flow structure is unrelated to the surface Halmahera Eddy. The eddy-resolving simulation of the OFES revealed that the ACG consists of two components. The southern ACG(SACG) is centered at ~6°N, while the northern ACG(NACG) is centered at ~10°N. Seasonal and interannual variations of the ACG are linked to the variations of the northward MUC transport along the Mindanao coast, and the role of the SACG is more important than the NACG. Stronger(weaker) ACGs lead to greater(smaller) MUC transport. On the interannual timescale, the SACG shows a spectrum peak at 4–8 years, while the NACG has enhanced power within the 3–5-year band. A lead–lag correlation analysis indicates that interannual variations of the ACGs and the MUC transport are partly associated with the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. Possible causes for the ACG variability are discussed.

Interannual Climate Variability of the Past Millennium from Simulations

The interannual variability of global temperature and precipitation during the last millennium is analyzed using the results of ten coupled climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. It is found that large temperature(precipitation) variability is most dominant at high latitudes(tropical monsoon regions), and the seasonal magnitudes are greater than the annual mean. Significant multi-decadal-scale changes exist throughout the whole period for the zonal mean of both temperature and precipitation variability, while their long-term trends are indistinctive. The volcanic forcings correlate well with the temperature variability at midlatitudes, indicating possible leading drivers for the interannual time scale climate change.

Sediment Delivery across Multiple Spatio-temporal Scales in an Agriculture Watershed of the Chinese Loess Plateau

There is a consensus that sediment delivery ratio in the Chinese Loess Plateau is close to 1at the inter-annual timescale. However, little information is available about the sediment delivery at finer timescales. We evaluated the sediment delivery from plots to watersheds at the event or intra-annual, annual, and inter-annual timescales within the Wudinghe river basin, a 30,261 km2 basin in the Loess Plateau. We calculated the ratio of sediment output to sediment input and presented the temporal change of the channel morphology to determine whether sediment deposition occurs.Although a single flood event frequently has a sediment yield exceeding 10,000 t km-2, sediment deposition rarely occurs except during some small runoff events(sediment yield < 5000 t km-2) or dry years(sediment yield < 10,000 t km-2) when moving from slopes up to the main channels of the Wudinghe River. This observation suggests a sediment delivery ratio close to 1 even at the event or intra-annual and the annual timescales, but not necessarily at the interannual timescale. Such a high sediment delivery ratio can be related to hyper-concentrated flows, which have very strong sediment transport capacity even at low flow strength. Because hyper-concentrated flows are well-developed in the whole Loess Plateau, a sediment delivery ratio close to 1 below the interannual timescale possibly remains true for other rivers in the Loess Plateau.

人类活动影响20世纪厄尔尼诺-南方涛动变化

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)是地球气候系统在年际时间尺度(2~8年)上最强的海-气耦合变异现象,对全球极端天气、渔业生态环境及人类经济社会产生广泛而深远的影响[1].全球变暖背景下ENSO究竟如何发展变化,决定着ENSO对天气、气候、生态和农业等生产生活要素的影响范围、程度及方式.