我国重大人文社科评奖结果偏离度研究——以教育学科论文类成果为例

我国人文社科奖励活动因其衡量标准难以划一,一直是国家奖励体制中的薄弱环节。如何通过技术和制度手段最大限度提高该领域评奖活动中的纯度以增强其公信力和权威性,是学术界和政府层面的一大难题。本文基于这一现实背景,在构造全新分析框架基础上提出评奖结果偏离度这一新的研究命题,并以目前最高等级人文社科奖项中的教育学科论文类获奖成果为例展开定量研究。结果显示:教育学科论文评奖结果在影响深度偏离度Ⅰ和影响广度偏离度Ⅰ上均存在不同程度的显著负向偏离,且呈现影响深度偏离度Ⅰ逐步降低而影响广度偏离度Ⅰ逐步增强的态势;而影响深度偏离度Ⅱ和影响广度偏离度Ⅱ主要呈现显著正向偏离态势,表明获奖成果等级分布趋于合理。未来完善人文社科评奖活动的着力重点应是改进评奖方法与评价标准,完善评奖专家产生机制及行为规范,健全评奖程序并建立有效的问责制度。

Diagnostics in generalized nonlinear models based on maximum L_q-likelihood estimation

In order to detect whether the data conforms to the given model, it is necessary to diagnose the data in the statistical way. The diagnostic problem in generalized nonlinear models based on the maximum Lq-likelihood estimation is considered. Three diagnostic statistics are used to detect whether the outliers exist in the data set. Simulation results show that when the sample size is small, the values of diagnostic statistics based on the maximum Lq-likelihood estimation are greater than the values based on the maximum likelihood estimation. As the sample size increases, the difference between the values of the diagnostic statistics based on two estimation methods diminishes gradually. It means that the outliers can be distinguished easier through the maximum Lq-likelihood method than those through the maximum likelihood estimation method.