To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden...To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes(probability) of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects: corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault; the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts' opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipeline in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.展开更多
Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensi...Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensive evaluation index system and a coal and gas outburst prediction model.In addition,we performed a standard transformation for each index system;based on the degree the various indices affect the risk of an outburst,to make the data dimensionless.Based on the outburst data from eight mines,we determined catastrophe progression values and verified these values.The results show that:1) converting multi-dimensional problems into one-dimensional problems using this catastrophe progression method can simplify the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts;2) when pre-determined catastrophe progression values are used to predict coal and gas outbursts,the predicting accuracy rate can be as high as 87.5%;3) the various coal mines have different factors inducing outbursts with varying importance of these factors and 4) the catastrophe progression values,calculated based on these factors,can be used effectively to predict the risk of outbursts in coal mines.展开更多
In order to evaluate the level of the coal mine essential safety management, the comprehensive index system was designed base on the connotation principle of the mine essential safety management. Due to the disadvanta...In order to evaluate the level of the coal mine essential safety management, the comprehensive index system was designed base on the connotation principle of the mine essential safety management. Due to the disadvantage of index weight setting by subjective idea in the former method, support vector classification algorithm was used to assess the level of coal mine essential safety management. According to the advantages of the global search capability of the genetic algorithm, support vector classification parameters optimization method was proposed based on genetic algorithm, and genetic algorithm-support vector classification model of coal mine essential safety management assessment was established. Learning samples were constructed on the basis of former data of mine essential safety management evaluation. The test results show that the genetic algorithm-support vector classification model has higher evaluation accuracy and good generalization ability, and the advantage of no need for artificial setting of index weight and absence of the subjective factors influence to evaluation results.展开更多
Energy Management System (EnMS), benefiting enterprises with energy conservation through the PDCA cycle, has been widely valued and applied by domestic and overseas enterprises. Based on the experience on the constr...Energy Management System (EnMS), benefiting enterprises with energy conservation through the PDCA cycle, has been widely valued and applied by domestic and overseas enterprises. Based on the experience on the construction and implementation of energy management system, the paper systematically analyzes the construction ideas and development requirements of EnMS standards system, aiming to broaden/he coverage of EnMS and its technical indicator system, strengthen the systematicness and comprehensiveness and provide standardized tools and methods for all users.展开更多
The paper confirms evaluation indexes of oral English with the application of Delphi technique and expert consultation, and then establishes hierarchical structure model of oral English evaluation index system. The we...The paper confirms evaluation indexes of oral English with the application of Delphi technique and expert consultation, and then establishes hierarchical structure model of oral English evaluation index system. The weight of each evaluation index is determined with the methods of Delphi and expert consultation again. A group of students' oral English is subsequently evaluated by using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) based on oral English evaluation index system and the weights we set up in this thesis.展开更多
基金the Marine Public Welfare Research Project of China (No. 201205012)Preferential Funding of Tianjin
文摘To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes(probability) of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects: corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault; the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts' opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipeline in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.
基金Projects 50574072, 50874089 and 50534049 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China08JK366 by the Special Scientific Foundation of Educational Committee of Shaanxi Province
文摘Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensive evaluation index system and a coal and gas outburst prediction model.In addition,we performed a standard transformation for each index system;based on the degree the various indices affect the risk of an outburst,to make the data dimensionless.Based on the outburst data from eight mines,we determined catastrophe progression values and verified these values.The results show that:1) converting multi-dimensional problems into one-dimensional problems using this catastrophe progression method can simplify the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts;2) when pre-determined catastrophe progression values are used to predict coal and gas outbursts,the predicting accuracy rate can be as high as 87.5%;3) the various coal mines have different factors inducing outbursts with varying importance of these factors and 4) the catastrophe progression values,calculated based on these factors,can be used effectively to predict the risk of outbursts in coal mines.
基金Supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (51174082) the Doctoral Research Fund of Henan Polytechnic University (B2010-69 B2011-056) the Guidance Program for Science and Technology Research of China National Coal Association (MTKJ2010-383)
文摘In order to evaluate the level of the coal mine essential safety management, the comprehensive index system was designed base on the connotation principle of the mine essential safety management. Due to the disadvantage of index weight setting by subjective idea in the former method, support vector classification algorithm was used to assess the level of coal mine essential safety management. According to the advantages of the global search capability of the genetic algorithm, support vector classification parameters optimization method was proposed based on genetic algorithm, and genetic algorithm-support vector classification model of coal mine essential safety management assessment was established. Learning samples were constructed on the basis of former data of mine essential safety management evaluation. The test results show that the genetic algorithm-support vector classification model has higher evaluation accuracy and good generalization ability, and the advantage of no need for artificial setting of index weight and absence of the subjective factors influence to evaluation results.
文摘Energy Management System (EnMS), benefiting enterprises with energy conservation through the PDCA cycle, has been widely valued and applied by domestic and overseas enterprises. Based on the experience on the construction and implementation of energy management system, the paper systematically analyzes the construction ideas and development requirements of EnMS standards system, aiming to broaden/he coverage of EnMS and its technical indicator system, strengthen the systematicness and comprehensiveness and provide standardized tools and methods for all users.
文摘The paper confirms evaluation indexes of oral English with the application of Delphi technique and expert consultation, and then establishes hierarchical structure model of oral English evaluation index system. The weight of each evaluation index is determined with the methods of Delphi and expert consultation again. A group of students' oral English is subsequently evaluated by using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) based on oral English evaluation index system and the weights we set up in this thesis.