对渤海的建国年代和建国地的讨论

渤海于698年先在辽东宣布建国,其国号为震国,建国者是乞乞仲象。此后,李楷固奉则天武后之命追讨,乞四比羽被斩杀,乞乞仲象已病故,其子大祚荣统领其部众到达天门岭时与李楷固大战,李楷固败,脱身而还。这时,契丹及奚尽降突厥,道路阻绝,则天不能讨,大祚荣率其众,继续东走,于公元700年前后到达挹娄之故地东牟山,筑城以居。713年,唐封大祚荣为"渤海郡王",从此改称渤海。虽然建立震国者是乞乞仲象,但不久病故,在与唐兵作战及东走到达东牟山的过程中始终以大祚荣为统帅,因此,后来的史书都记录渤海的建国者是大祚荣,但渤海人自己把开国之日定为698年,又通过渤海使臣传到日本被准确地记录下来。

契丹開國年代問題——立足於史源學的考察

关于契丹开国年代，在北朝文献系统和中土文献系统中存在诸多不同记载：既有《辽史》的开平元年说，又有《契丹国志》的神册元年说，还有早至9世纪末，晚至五代梁、唐之际的种种说法，甚至有认为耶律阿保机始终未曾采用中国皇帝名号者。虽然今天辽史学界的认识已经基本趋于统一，普遍认为辽太祖称帝建国应在神册元年，但对于这一结论的来龙去脉却从来无人予以深究。本文从史源学的角度对此问题进行较为系统的考察，以期弄清契丹开国史的基本线索。

Long-range precipitation forecasts using paleoclimate reconstructions in the western United States

Long-range precipitation forecasts are useful when managing water supplies.Oceanicatmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence precipitation.Due to a longer cycle of some of the oscillations,a short instrumental record is a limitation in using them for long-range precipitation forecasts.The influence of oscillations over precipitation is observable within paleoclimate reconstructions;however,there have been no attempts to utilize these reconstructions in precipitation forecasting.A data-driven model,KStar,is used for obtaining long-range precipitation forecasts by extending the period of record through the use of reconstructions of oscillations.KStar is a nearest neighbor algorithm with an entropy-based distance function.Oceanic-atmospheric oscillation reconstructions include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO).Precipitation is forecasted for 20 climate divisions in the western United States.A 10-year moving average is applied to aid in the identification of oscillation phases.A lead time approach is used to simulate a one-year forecast,with a 10-fold cross-validation technique to test the models.Reconstructions are used from 1658-1899,while the observed record is used from 1900-2007.The model is evaluated using mean absolute error(MAE),root mean squared error(RMSE),RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio(RSR),Pearson's correlation coefficient(R),NashSutcliffe coefficient of efficiency(NSE),and linear error in probability space(LEPS) skill score(SK).The role of individual and coupled oscillations is evaluated by dropping oscillations in the model.The results indicate 'good' precipitation estimates using the KStar model.This modeling technique is expected to be useful for long-term water resources planning and management.

Perfection of the legislation of the crimes by the Chinese elderly

The nineteenth session of the Standing Committee of the Eleventh National People＇s Congress in February 25, 2011 approved the ＂PRC Criminal Law Amendment （eight）＂, which for the first time added the provision of the lenient punishment for the elderly crimes. The provision filled the legislative blank of the criminal responsibility of this special group of the old people in the criminal law of our country. But at the same time, we should also clearly see the deficiencies of the amendment （eight）. This paper attempts to sort out the rationality of the lenient application of the punishment on the older people from the aspect of the criminal policy oftemperingjustice with mercy and other aspects, and to construct and perfect the specific legislative proposals that the amendment （eight） puts forward.

Preliminary multiproxy surface air temperature field reconstruction for China over the past millennium

We present the first millennial-length gridded field reconstruction of annual temperature for China, and analyze the reconstruction for spatiotemporal changes and associated uncertainties, based on a network of 415 well-distributed and accurately dated climatic proxy series.The new reconstruction method is a modified form of the point-by-point regression (PPR) approach.The main difference is the incorporation of the "composite plus scale" (CPS) and "Regularized errors-in-variables" (EIV) algorithms to allow for the assimilation of various types of the proxy data.Furthermore, the search radius is restricted to a grid size; this restriction helps effectively exclude proxy data possibly correlated with temperature but belonging to a different climate region.The results indicate that: 1) the past temperature record in China is spatially heterogenic, with variable correlations between cells in time; 2) the late 20th century warming in China probably exceeds mean temperature levels at any period of the past 1000 years, but the temperature anomalies of some grids in eastern China during the Medieval climate anomaly period are warmer than during the modern warming; 3) the climatic variability in the eastern and western regions of China was not synchronous during much of the last millennium, probably due to the influence of the Tibetan Plateau.Our temperature reconstruction may serve as a reference to test simulation results over the past millennium, and help to finely analyze the spatial characteristics and the driving mechanism of the past temperature variability.However, the lower reconstruction skill scores for some grid points underline that the present set of available proxy data series is not yet sufficient to accurately reconstruct the heterogeneous climate of China in all regions, and that there is the need for more highly resolved temperature proxies, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau.