基于无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫链法的建筑业产值预测——以重庆为例

建筑业作为支柱产业，科学预测对其发展具有重要意义。单一评价模型因其各自局限性无法提高预测精确度，多种模型相结合评价较有优势，将无偏理论与模糊集合引入传统灰色马尔可夫预测模型，从拟合度和状态模糊集分类方面改进无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫模型。基于重庆1991～2011年建筑业产值，对其市场趋势进行预测分析，详细阐述该方法在建筑业产值预测中运用，定性分析预测结果，对建筑业发展历史及近期趋势进行检验和预判。

我国建筑业就业弹性预测分析

建筑业是我国经济发展的支柱产业,建筑业在解决农民工就业中起着不可或缺的作用。研究通过2010—2019年建筑业产值和劳动力需求数据,利用灰色预测模型预测了未来十年我国建筑业的产值,利用线性函数预测了建筑业劳动力的需求,最后通过就业弹性系数分析了我国建筑业产值与就业人口的关系。结果表明,未来十年间建筑业就业弹性系数在五年移动平均中逐渐趋近于0,我国建筑业产值对就业的吸引力逐渐下降。

Forecasting of development of the Jiangsu construction industry and its case analysis

In order to grasp the development path of the Jiangsu construction industry, a multivariable linear regression model for forecasting is proposed. Five factors affecting development of the Jiangsu construction industry are chosen as explanatory variables. They are the construction industry＇s fixed assets K, the gross domestic product （GDP）, real estate added value （REAV）, construction industry export （WS）and investment in construction and installation projects（JA）. The principal component analysis is used to resolve multicollinearity between them. The construction added value （CAV） is chosen as a dependant variable, and the growth model of the Jiangsu construction industry is established. Statistical data from 1990 to 2008 are used to test the prediction accuracy of the model. The predictive results show that from 2009 to 2012, the average annual growth rate of the Jiangsu construction industry added value will be 17. 65% while the GDP growth rate will be 14. 16% . the Jiangsu construction industry will grow faster than the GDP in the near future. The construction output of the GDP continues to rise, and its pillar position will be further strengthened.