The 3D numerical simulation model of deep hard-rock deposit in Kaiyang Phosphate Mine of Guiyang was established based on the practical engineering using 3DEC numerical simulation software. The distribution characteri...The 3D numerical simulation model of deep hard-rock deposit in Kaiyang Phosphate Mine of Guiyang was established based on the practical engineering using 3DEC numerical simulation software. The distribution characteristics of displacement fields and plastic zones of the orebody were simulated in three different excavation cases, including the case of excavation artificial inducted roadway in the orebody, the case of horizontal or vertical excavation direction and the case of the upward or downward excavation order. The simulation results indicate that the plastic zone and displacement field of surrounding rock around the inducted roadway are continuously increasing with the increase of the exposure time after digging an artificial inducted roadway in the orebody. Thus the raw rock ore becomes easier to be fragmented, which provides advantageous conditions for roadheader to cut high stress hard-rock. It is worthy noting that there is a large difference in effective utilization of deep ground pressure between horizontal and vertical excavation directions. The later can produce larger deformation and fracture zone than the former on the rock mass around the deduced roadway, which means that the later may utilize the high ground pressure more effectively to break hard-rock. And the obtained results also show that upward excavation order is more helpful for ground pressure to break rock than downward excavation order.展开更多
To analyze the overlying strata movement law of recovering room mining standing pillars with solid backfilling.Physical simulation experiments with sponge and wood as the backfilling simulation material were tested.Th...To analyze the overlying strata movement law of recovering room mining standing pillars with solid backfilling.Physical simulation experiments with sponge and wood as the backfilling simulation material were tested.The results show that:(i) The covering-rock mechanics of the overly strata comes from "two-arch structures + hinged girder + bend beam" to "backfilling material + hinged girder + bent beam" by increasing the fill ratio from 0%to 85%,the beginning of overlying strata movement appears later and the total duration of subsidence velocity increased from zero to the highest value increases.The trend of "single polarization" of the subsidence velocity curves becomes noticeable and the velocity variation trend becomes stable,(ii) The equiponderate aeolian sand was added to improve the anti-pressure ability of the loess,and the corresponding ground processing & transportation system was designed.展开更多
According to the special requirements of secondary mining of resources in gateway-and-pillar goal in extra-thick seams of Shanxi, this paper presents a technical proposal of back stoping from level floors. Numerical s...According to the special requirements of secondary mining of resources in gateway-and-pillar goal in extra-thick seams of Shanxi, this paper presents a technical proposal of back stoping from level floors. Numerical simulation and theoretical analysis are ccsed to investigate the compaction characteristics of cavities under stress as well as an appropriate mining height of the primary-mining layer based on dif- ferent mining widths and pillar widths. For Yangjian coal mine, the mining thickness of the first seam during back stoping from level floor is determined to be 3 m, which meets the relevant requirements. Gateway-and-pillar goaf of a single layer has a range of influence of 9 m vertically. If gateway-and-pillar goaf occurs both in 9-1 and 9-5 layers, the range is extended to within 11.2 m. When the mining width of a gateway is less than 2 m or larger than 5 m, the gateway-and-pillar goal in the upper layer of the primary-mining seam can be filled in and compacted after stoping. When the working face is 2 m away from the gateway and pillar before entering into it and after passing through it, the coal body under the gateway and pillar is subjected to relatively high stress. During mining of the upper layer, moreover, the working face should interlock the goaf in primary-mining layer for 20 m.展开更多
In order to realize the memory cutting of a shearer, made use of the memorizedcutting path and acquisitioned cutting parameters, and realized the teaching and playbackof the cutting path.In order to optimize the memor...In order to realize the memory cutting of a shearer, made use of the memorizedcutting path and acquisitioned cutting parameters, and realized the teaching and playbackof the cutting path.In order to optimize the memory cutting path of a shearer, took intoaccount the constraints of coal mining craft, coal quality and the adaption faculty of coalmining equipments.Genetic algorithm theory was used to optimize the memory cutting ofshearer and simulate with Matlab, and realized the most valuable mining recovery rate.The experimental results show that the optimization of the memory cutting path of ashearer based on the genetic algorithm is feasible and obtains the most valuable memorycutting path, improving the ability of shearer automatic cutting.展开更多
Near-surface deposits that extend to considerable depths are often amenable to both open pit mining and/or underground mining. This paper investigates the strategy of mining options for an orebody using a Mixed Intege...Near-surface deposits that extend to considerable depths are often amenable to both open pit mining and/or underground mining. This paper investigates the strategy of mining options for an orebody using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming(MILP) optimization framework. The MILP formulation maximizes the Net Present Value(NPV) of the reserve when extracted with(i) open pit mining,(ii) underground mining, and(iii) concurrent open pit and underground mining. Comparatively, implementing open pit mining generates a higher NPV than underground mining. However considering the investment required for these mining options, underground mining generates a better return on investment than open pit mining. Also, in the concurrent open pit and underground mining scenario, the optimizer prefers extracting blocks using open pit mining. Although the underground mine could access ore sooner, the mining cost differential for open pit mining is more than compensated for by the discounting benefits associated with earlier underground mining.展开更多
New solid backfill mining technology provides unique technical advantages for ‘‘three-under'' coal mining which refers to coal resources trapped under buildings, railways, and water bodies. This technology h...New solid backfill mining technology provides unique technical advantages for ‘‘three-under'' coal mining which refers to coal resources trapped under buildings, railways, and water bodies. This technology has a much higher recovery rate and can effectively control the surface subsidence. However, successful application of this technology depends heavily on geological conditions. To avoid the disadvantages associated with downward mining and overhead backfilling with this new technology, a new advanced solid backfill mining design with two pre-driving entries is proposed here to ensure the backfill effect. Taking Huayuan coal mine as an example, this paper tests the double gob-side entries retaining with no pillar left scheme and optimizes an integrated technology setup for backfill mining and gob-side entry retaining. Field applications show that the recovery rate increased from 40% for strip mining to 85% for backfill mining. Moreover, the new backfill technology allowed for better control over the surrounding rock deformation caused by the gob-side entry retaining effect and better control of ground subsidence as compared to strip mining.展开更多
Room and pillar sizes are key factors for safe mining and ore recovery in open-stope mining. To investigate the influence of room and pillar configurations on stope stability in highly fractured and weakened areas, an...Room and pillar sizes are key factors for safe mining and ore recovery in open-stope mining. To investigate the influence of room and pillar configurations on stope stability in highly fractured and weakened areas, an orthogonal design with two factors, three levels and nine runs was proposed, followed by three-dimensional numerical simulation using ANSYS and FLAC3~. Results show that surface settlement after excavation is concentrically ringed, and increases with the decrease of pillar width and distances to stope gobs. In the meantime, the ore-control fault at the ore-rock boundary and the fractured argillaceous dolomite with intercalated slate at the hanging wall deteriorate the roof settlement. Additionally, stope stability is challenged due to pillar rheological yield and stress concentration, and both are induced by redistribution of stress and plastic zones after mining. Following an objective function and a constraint function, room and pillar configuration with widths of 14 m and 16 m, respectively, is presented as the optimization for improving the ore recovery rate while maintaining a safe working environment.展开更多
Fully mechanized cave mining with large mining height is a new mining method, due to its large mining thickness and lower roadway excavation, the technology has been widely used in China's thick seam mining. In order...Fully mechanized cave mining with large mining height is a new mining method, due to its large mining thickness and lower roadway excavation, the technology has been widely used in China's thick seam mining. In order to improve the top-coal recovery ratio of fully mechanized cave mining with large mining height, a study was conducted on optimizing the caving process, based on the mechanized caving face 1302N in Longgu Coal Mine. This was achieved by improving the PFC numerical calculation methods, and establishing a more accurate model system. On this basis, the recovery ratio of the top coal in different drawing intervals and technologies was investigated in order to achieve a reasonable caving process. The top-coal tracking system was used for practical surveying of the recovery ratio of top coal.展开更多
In order to improve the precision of mining subsidence prediction, a mathematical model using Support Vector Machine (SVM) was established to calculate the displacement factor. The study is based on a comprehensive ...In order to improve the precision of mining subsidence prediction, a mathematical model using Support Vector Machine (SVM) was established to calculate the displacement factor. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of factors affecting the displacement factor, such as mechanical properties of the cover rock, the ratio of mining depth to seam thickness, dip angle of the coal seam and the thickness of loose layer. Data of 63 typical observation stations were used as a training and testing sample set. A SVM regression model of the displacement factor and the factors affecting it was established with a kernel function, an insensitive loss factor and a properly selected penalty factor. Given an accurate calculation algorithm for testing and analysis, the results show that an SVM regression model can calcu- late displacement factor precisely and reliable precision can be obtained which meets engineering requirements. The experimental results show that the method to calculation of the displacement factor, based on the SVM method, is feasible. The many factors affecting the displacement factor can be consid- ered with this method. The research provides an efficient and accurate approach for the calculation of displacement in mining subsidence orediction.展开更多
Lower groups of coal seams are presently being mined from water-inrush from coal floors in order to have safe production in the Yanzhou coal mining area. We need to evaluate the risk in the lower groups of coal seams ...Lower groups of coal seams are presently being mined from water-inrush from coal floors in order to have safe production in the Yanzhou coal mining area. We need to evaluate the risk in the lower groups of coal seams in mines. Based on a systematic collection of hydrogeological data and some data from mined working faces in these lower groups, we evaluated the factors affecting water-inrush from coal floors of the area by a method of dimensionless analysis. We obtained the order of the factors affecting water-inrush from coal floors and recalculated data on depths of destroyed floors by multiple linear regression analysis and obtained new empirical formulas. We also analyzed the water-inrush coefficient of mined working faces of the lower groups of coal seams and improved the evaluation standard of the water-inrush coefficient method. Finally, we made a comprehensive evaluation of water-inrush risks from coal floors by using the water-inrush coefficient method and a fuzzy clustering method. The evaluation results provide a solid foundation for preventing and controlling the damage caused by water of an Ordovician limestone aquifer in the lower group of coal seams in the mines of Yanzhou. It provides also important guidelines for lower groups of coal seams in other coal mines.展开更多
From an analysis of the relationships of grouting coefficients under the conditions of grouting reducing subsidence, it is concluded that the reducing subsidence rate is in direct proportion to the grouting-recovery r...From an analysis of the relationships of grouting coefficients under the conditions of grouting reducing subsidence, it is concluded that the reducing subsidence rate is in direct proportion to the grouting-recovery ratio, and its proportional coefficient depends on the coefficient of reducing subsidence and collapsing coefficient.The coefficient for reducing subsidence volume φ=ΔV/V_(ash) is related to overburden lithology.The coefficient for reducing subsidence volume φ is always larger than 1.This improves the reducing subsidence rate,the grouting-recovery ratio, and the coefficient for reducing subsidence volume, which can maximize the control of surface subsidence.展开更多
The longwall mining method is often affected by the out-of-seam dilution (OSD). Therefore, predicting and controlling of dilution are important factors for reducing mining costs. In this study, the fuzzy set theory ...The longwall mining method is often affected by the out-of-seam dilution (OSD). Therefore, predicting and controlling of dilution are important factors for reducing mining costs. In this study, the fuzzy set theory and multiple regression models with parameters, including variation in seam thickness, dip of seam, seam thickness, depth of seam, and hydraulic radius as inputs to the models were applied to pre- dict the OSD in the longwall coal panels. Field data obtained from Kerman and Tabas coal mines, lran were used to develop and validate the models. Three indices including coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and variance account for (VAF) were used to evaluate the perfor- mance of the models. With 10 randomly selected datasets, for the linear, polynomial, power, exponential, and fuzzy logic models, R2, RSME and VAF are equal to (0.85, 4.4, 84.4), (0.61, 7.5, 59.6), (0.84, 4.5, 72.7), (0.80, 4.1, 79.6), and (0.97, 2.1, 95.7), respectively. The obtained results indicate that the fuzzy logic model predictor with R2 = 0.97, RMSE = 2.1, and VAF = 95.7 performs better than the other models.展开更多
A method of forecasting total seismic energy induced by longwall exploitation, based on changes in ground subsidence, is presented in the form of a linear regression model with one with one independent variable. In th...A method of forecasting total seismic energy induced by longwall exploitation, based on changes in ground subsidence, is presented in the form of a linear regression model with one with one independent variable. In the method, ground subsidence is described with a cross-section area of a subsidence trough Pw along a line of observations in the direction of an advancing longwall front, approximately along the axis of the longwall area. Total seismic energy is determined on the basis of seismic energy data of tremors induced by exploitation. The presentation consists of a detailed method and evaluation of its predictive ability for the area of longwall exploitation within the region of one of the coal mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. This method can be used for forecasting the total seismic energy released by tremors within the area directly connected with the exploitation, in which the seismic activity induced by this exploitation occurs. The estimation of the parameters of the determined model should each time be carried out with investigations of the correctness of the model. The method cannot be applied when the number of recorded phenomena is small and when there is insufficient data to make it possible to calculate the index Pw.展开更多
基金Projects (50934006, 10872218) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject (2010CB732004) supported by the National Basic Research Program of China
文摘The 3D numerical simulation model of deep hard-rock deposit in Kaiyang Phosphate Mine of Guiyang was established based on the practical engineering using 3DEC numerical simulation software. The distribution characteristics of displacement fields and plastic zones of the orebody were simulated in three different excavation cases, including the case of excavation artificial inducted roadway in the orebody, the case of horizontal or vertical excavation direction and the case of the upward or downward excavation order. The simulation results indicate that the plastic zone and displacement field of surrounding rock around the inducted roadway are continuously increasing with the increase of the exposure time after digging an artificial inducted roadway in the orebody. Thus the raw rock ore becomes easier to be fragmented, which provides advantageous conditions for roadheader to cut high stress hard-rock. It is worthy noting that there is a large difference in effective utilization of deep ground pressure between horizontal and vertical excavation directions. The later can produce larger deformation and fracture zone than the former on the rock mass around the deduced roadway, which means that the later may utilize the high ground pressure more effectively to break hard-rock. And the obtained results also show that upward excavation order is more helpful for ground pressure to break rock than downward excavation order.
基金provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51074165)the NationalKey Basic Research Program of China(No.2013CB227905)the Qing-Lan Project of China Scholarship Council
文摘To analyze the overlying strata movement law of recovering room mining standing pillars with solid backfilling.Physical simulation experiments with sponge and wood as the backfilling simulation material were tested.The results show that:(i) The covering-rock mechanics of the overly strata comes from "two-arch structures + hinged girder + bend beam" to "backfilling material + hinged girder + bent beam" by increasing the fill ratio from 0%to 85%,the beginning of overlying strata movement appears later and the total duration of subsidence velocity increased from zero to the highest value increases.The trend of "single polarization" of the subsidence velocity curves becomes noticeable and the velocity variation trend becomes stable,(ii) The equiponderate aeolian sand was added to improve the anti-pressure ability of the loess,and the corresponding ground processing & transportation system was designed.
基金Financial support for this work was provided by the National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (No. 2012AA062101)the Priority Academic Development Program of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (No. SZBF2011-6-B35)the Graduate Students Innovation Fund of Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province (No. CXZZ12_0950)
文摘According to the special requirements of secondary mining of resources in gateway-and-pillar goal in extra-thick seams of Shanxi, this paper presents a technical proposal of back stoping from level floors. Numerical simulation and theoretical analysis are ccsed to investigate the compaction characteristics of cavities under stress as well as an appropriate mining height of the primary-mining layer based on dif- ferent mining widths and pillar widths. For Yangjian coal mine, the mining thickness of the first seam during back stoping from level floor is determined to be 3 m, which meets the relevant requirements. Gateway-and-pillar goaf of a single layer has a range of influence of 9 m vertically. If gateway-and-pillar goaf occurs both in 9-1 and 9-5 layers, the range is extended to within 11.2 m. When the mining width of a gateway is less than 2 m or larger than 5 m, the gateway-and-pillar goal in the upper layer of the primary-mining seam can be filled in and compacted after stoping. When the working face is 2 m away from the gateway and pillar before entering into it and after passing through it, the coal body under the gateway and pillar is subjected to relatively high stress. During mining of the upper layer, moreover, the working face should interlock the goaf in primary-mining layer for 20 m.
基金Supported by the High-Tech Research and Development Program of China(2008AA062202)Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation(114003)New Teacher Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Ministry of Education(20070290538)
文摘In order to realize the memory cutting of a shearer, made use of the memorizedcutting path and acquisitioned cutting parameters, and realized the teaching and playbackof the cutting path.In order to optimize the memory cutting path of a shearer, took intoaccount the constraints of coal mining craft, coal quality and the adaption faculty of coalmining equipments.Genetic algorithm theory was used to optimize the memory cutting ofshearer and simulate with Matlab, and realized the most valuable mining recovery rate.The experimental results show that the optimization of the memory cutting path of ashearer based on the genetic algorithm is feasible and obtains the most valuable memorycutting path, improving the ability of shearer automatic cutting.
基金funding support provided by the Laurentian University Research Fund for the compilation of this report
文摘Near-surface deposits that extend to considerable depths are often amenable to both open pit mining and/or underground mining. This paper investigates the strategy of mining options for an orebody using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming(MILP) optimization framework. The MILP formulation maximizes the Net Present Value(NPV) of the reserve when extracted with(i) open pit mining,(ii) underground mining, and(iii) concurrent open pit and underground mining. Comparatively, implementing open pit mining generates a higher NPV than underground mining. However considering the investment required for these mining options, underground mining generates a better return on investment than open pit mining. Also, in the concurrent open pit and underground mining scenario, the optimizer prefers extracting blocks using open pit mining. Although the underground mine could access ore sooner, the mining cost differential for open pit mining is more than compensated for by the discounting benefits associated with earlier underground mining.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds program for the Central Universities (No. 2014RC02)the Research Innovation Program for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province (No. CXLX13_951)Qing Lan Project
文摘New solid backfill mining technology provides unique technical advantages for ‘‘three-under'' coal mining which refers to coal resources trapped under buildings, railways, and water bodies. This technology has a much higher recovery rate and can effectively control the surface subsidence. However, successful application of this technology depends heavily on geological conditions. To avoid the disadvantages associated with downward mining and overhead backfilling with this new technology, a new advanced solid backfill mining design with two pre-driving entries is proposed here to ensure the backfill effect. Taking Huayuan coal mine as an example, this paper tests the double gob-side entries retaining with no pillar left scheme and optimizes an integrated technology setup for backfill mining and gob-side entry retaining. Field applications show that the recovery rate increased from 40% for strip mining to 85% for backfill mining. Moreover, the new backfill technology allowed for better control over the surrounding rock deformation caused by the gob-side entry retaining effect and better control of ground subsidence as compared to strip mining.
基金Projects(50934002,51074013,51104100)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(IRT0950)supported by the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of China
文摘Room and pillar sizes are key factors for safe mining and ore recovery in open-stope mining. To investigate the influence of room and pillar configurations on stope stability in highly fractured and weakened areas, an orthogonal design with two factors, three levels and nine runs was proposed, followed by three-dimensional numerical simulation using ANSYS and FLAC3~. Results show that surface settlement after excavation is concentrically ringed, and increases with the decrease of pillar width and distances to stope gobs. In the meantime, the ore-control fault at the ore-rock boundary and the fractured argillaceous dolomite with intercalated slate at the hanging wall deteriorate the roof settlement. Additionally, stope stability is challenged due to pillar rheological yield and stress concentration, and both are induced by redistribution of stress and plastic zones after mining. Following an objective function and a constraint function, room and pillar configuration with widths of 14 m and 16 m, respectively, is presented as the optimization for improving the ore recovery rate while maintaining a safe working environment.
文摘Fully mechanized cave mining with large mining height is a new mining method, due to its large mining thickness and lower roadway excavation, the technology has been widely used in China's thick seam mining. In order to improve the top-coal recovery ratio of fully mechanized cave mining with large mining height, a study was conducted on optimizing the caving process, based on the mechanized caving face 1302N in Longgu Coal Mine. This was achieved by improving the PFC numerical calculation methods, and establishing a more accurate model system. On this basis, the recovery ratio of the top coal in different drawing intervals and technologies was investigated in order to achieve a reasonable caving process. The top-coal tracking system was used for practical surveying of the recovery ratio of top coal.
基金the Research and Innovation Program for College and University Graduate Students in Jiangsu Province (No.CX10B_141Z)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41071273) for support of this project
文摘In order to improve the precision of mining subsidence prediction, a mathematical model using Support Vector Machine (SVM) was established to calculate the displacement factor. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of factors affecting the displacement factor, such as mechanical properties of the cover rock, the ratio of mining depth to seam thickness, dip angle of the coal seam and the thickness of loose layer. Data of 63 typical observation stations were used as a training and testing sample set. A SVM regression model of the displacement factor and the factors affecting it was established with a kernel function, an insensitive loss factor and a properly selected penalty factor. Given an accurate calculation algorithm for testing and analysis, the results show that an SVM regression model can calcu- late displacement factor precisely and reliable precision can be obtained which meets engineering requirements. The experimental results show that the method to calculation of the displacement factor, based on the SVM method, is feasible. The many factors affecting the displacement factor can be consid- ered with this method. The research provides an efficient and accurate approach for the calculation of displacement in mining subsidence orediction.
基金supports from the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (No.Y2007F46)the Doctor Disciplines Special Scientific Research Foundation of Ministry of Education (No.20070424005)+1 种基金China Coal Industry Association Science and Technology Research Instructive Plan (No.MTKJ2009-290) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50539080)
文摘Lower groups of coal seams are presently being mined from water-inrush from coal floors in order to have safe production in the Yanzhou coal mining area. We need to evaluate the risk in the lower groups of coal seams in mines. Based on a systematic collection of hydrogeological data and some data from mined working faces in these lower groups, we evaluated the factors affecting water-inrush from coal floors of the area by a method of dimensionless analysis. We obtained the order of the factors affecting water-inrush from coal floors and recalculated data on depths of destroyed floors by multiple linear regression analysis and obtained new empirical formulas. We also analyzed the water-inrush coefficient of mined working faces of the lower groups of coal seams and improved the evaluation standard of the water-inrush coefficient method. Finally, we made a comprehensive evaluation of water-inrush risks from coal floors by using the water-inrush coefficient method and a fuzzy clustering method. The evaluation results provide a solid foundation for preventing and controlling the damage caused by water of an Ordovician limestone aquifer in the lower group of coal seams in the mines of Yanzhou. It provides also important guidelines for lower groups of coal seams in other coal mines.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (50174035, 50474029)
文摘From an analysis of the relationships of grouting coefficients under the conditions of grouting reducing subsidence, it is concluded that the reducing subsidence rate is in direct proportion to the grouting-recovery ratio, and its proportional coefficient depends on the coefficient of reducing subsidence and collapsing coefficient.The coefficient for reducing subsidence volume φ=ΔV/V_(ash) is related to overburden lithology.The coefficient for reducing subsidence volume φ is always larger than 1.This improves the reducing subsidence rate,the grouting-recovery ratio, and the coefficient for reducing subsidence volume, which can maximize the control of surface subsidence.
文摘The longwall mining method is often affected by the out-of-seam dilution (OSD). Therefore, predicting and controlling of dilution are important factors for reducing mining costs. In this study, the fuzzy set theory and multiple regression models with parameters, including variation in seam thickness, dip of seam, seam thickness, depth of seam, and hydraulic radius as inputs to the models were applied to pre- dict the OSD in the longwall coal panels. Field data obtained from Kerman and Tabas coal mines, lran were used to develop and validate the models. Three indices including coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and variance account for (VAF) were used to evaluate the perfor- mance of the models. With 10 randomly selected datasets, for the linear, polynomial, power, exponential, and fuzzy logic models, R2, RSME and VAF are equal to (0.85, 4.4, 84.4), (0.61, 7.5, 59.6), (0.84, 4.5, 72.7), (0.80, 4.1, 79.6), and (0.97, 2.1, 95.7), respectively. The obtained results indicate that the fuzzy logic model predictor with R2 = 0.97, RMSE = 2.1, and VAF = 95.7 performs better than the other models.
文摘A method of forecasting total seismic energy induced by longwall exploitation, based on changes in ground subsidence, is presented in the form of a linear regression model with one with one independent variable. In the method, ground subsidence is described with a cross-section area of a subsidence trough Pw along a line of observations in the direction of an advancing longwall front, approximately along the axis of the longwall area. Total seismic energy is determined on the basis of seismic energy data of tremors induced by exploitation. The presentation consists of a detailed method and evaluation of its predictive ability for the area of longwall exploitation within the region of one of the coal mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. This method can be used for forecasting the total seismic energy released by tremors within the area directly connected with the exploitation, in which the seismic activity induced by this exploitation occurs. The estimation of the parameters of the determined model should each time be carried out with investigations of the correctness of the model. The method cannot be applied when the number of recorded phenomena is small and when there is insufficient data to make it possible to calculate the index Pw.