运营商宽带城域网流量分层差异化预测方法

对未来城域网流量的分析预测对于运营商宽带城域网的规划和设计十分重要,但城域网核心层和城域网业务控制层由于其网络层级的不同,其网络流量预测的目的、网络流量组成、网络流量变化特点等均有区别。本文以某运营商城域网络为研究对象,采用不同的流量预测方法预测未来城域网核心层流量和业务控制层流量,更加符合两个层次网络流量的演进特点,能更好的指导城域网的规划和建设。

基于年度综合计划的电力物资年度需求差异化预测

考虑不同品类物资需求特性,构建基于年度综合计划的模型,开展年度物资需求差异化预测,进一步提升需求预测的准确性。

Prediction study of hydrocarbon reservoir based on time-frequency domain electromagnetic technique taking Ili Basin as an example

The time-frequency domain electromagnetic(TFEM)sounding technique can directly detect oil and gas characteristics through anomalies in resistivity and polarizability.In recent years,it has made some breakthroughs in hydrocarbon detection.TFEM was applied to predict the petroliferous property of the Ili Basin.In accordance with the geological structure characteristics of the study area,a two-dimensional layered medium model was constructed and forward modeling was performed.We used the forward-modeling results to guide fi eld construction and ensure the quality of the fi eld data collection.We used the model inversion results to identify and distinguish the resolution of the geoelectric information and provide a reliable basis for data processing.On the basis of our results,key technologies such as 2D resistivity tomography imaging inversion and polarimetric constrained inversion were developed,and we obtained abundant geological and geophysical information.The characteristics of the TFEM anomalies of the hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Ili Basin were summarized through an analysis of the electrical logging data in the study area.Moreover,the oil-gas properties of the Permian and Triassic layers were predicted,and the next favorable exploration targets were optimized.

ENSO hindcast skill of the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system:comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization

Model initialization is a key process of climate predictions using dynamical models. In this study, the authors evaluated the performances of two distinct initialization approaches--anomaly and full-field initializations--in ENSO predictions conducted using the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （lAP）. IAP-DecPreS is composed of the FGOALS-s2 coupled general circulation model and a newly developed ocean data assimilation scheme called＇ensemble optimal interpolation-incremental analysis update＇ （EnOI-IAU）. It was found that, for IAP-DecPreS, the hindcast runs using the anomaly initialization have higher predictive skills for both conventional ENSO and El Nino Modoki, as compared to using the full-field initialization. The anomaly hindcasts can predict super El Nino/La Nina 10 months in advance and have good skill for most moderate and weak ENSO events about 4-7 months in advance.The predictive skill of the anomaly hindcasts for El Nino Modoki is close to that for conventional ENSO. On the other hand, the anomaly hindcasts at 1- and 4-month lead time can reproduce the major features of large-scale patterns of sea surface temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation anomalies during conventional ENSO and El Nino Modoki winter.

Process Optimization of Ultrasonic Extraction of Puerarin Based on Support Vector Machine

In ultrasonic extraction technology, optimization of technical parameters often considers extraction medium only, without including ultrasonic parameters. This paper focuses on controlling the ultrasonic extraction process of puerarin, investigating the influence of ultrasonic parameters on extraction rate, and empirically analyzing the main components of Pueraria, i.e., isoflavone compounds. A method is presented combining orthogonal experi- mental design with a support vector machine and a predictive model is established for optimization of technical parameters. From the analysis with the predictive model, appropriate process parameters are achieved for higher extraction rate. With these parameters in the ultrasonic extraction of puerarin, the experimental result is satisfactory. This method is of significance to the study of extracfing root-stock plant medicines.

舆情大数据环境下突发事件主题异化预警研究

互联网时代里信息异化现象时有发生,舆情大数据环境下有效预测突发事件主题异化,可以正确引导舆论,将突发事件控制于萌芽状态。本文以Logistic回归为理论依据,以突发事件主题异化为对象,建立了主题异化发生的概率模型,通过对实验数据的模拟,提高预测精度,确保预测模型可行。根据理论建模和实证分析,得出科学有效的突发事件主题异化预测模型,可以为政府加强对突发事件舆情的控制以及利用提供理论依据。

Variation in sexual dimorphism and assortative mating do not predict genetic divergence in the sexually dimorphic Goodeid fish Girardinichthys multiradiatus

Sexual dimorphism is often used as a proxy for the intensity of sexual selection in comparative studies of sexual selection and diversification. The Mexican Goodeinae are a group of livebearing freshwater fishes with large variation between species in sexual dimorphism in body shape. Previously we found an association between variation in morphological sexual dimorphism between species and the amount of gene flow within populations in the Goodeinae. Here we have examined if mor- phological differentiation within a single dimorphic species is related to assortative mating or gene flow between populations. In the Amarillo fish Girardinichthys multiradiatus studies have shown that exaggerated male fins are targets of female preferences. We find that populations of the species differ in the level of sexual dimorphism displayed due to faster evolution of differences in male than female morphology. However, this does not predict variation in assortative mating tests in the laboratory; in fact dif- ferences in male morphology are negatively correlated with assortative mating. Microsatellite markers reveal significant genetic differences between populations. However, gene flow is not predicted by either morphological differences or assortative mating. Rather, it demonstrates a pattern of isolation by distance with greater differentiation between watersheds. We discuss the caveats of predicting behavioural and genetic divergence from so-called proxies of sexual selection [Current Zoology 58 （3）： 440-452, 2012].