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基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析 被引量:3
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作者 陶亦为 张恒德 +3 位作者 代刊 董全 周军 刘珺 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第12期1532-1541,共10页
基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)第五代全球再分析资料(ERA5)构建模式气候,应用ECMWF集合预报,采用“集合预报标准化异常预报法”,针对最高和最低气温构建中国地区集合平均异常温度预报和异常温度概率预报产品,并与极端预报指数(extrem... 基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)第五代全球再分析资料(ERA5)构建模式气候,应用ECMWF集合预报,采用“集合预报标准化异常预报法”,针对最高和最低气温构建中国地区集合平均异常温度预报和异常温度概率预报产品,并与极端预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI)开展检验和对比分析预报性能,并基于“异常温度影响矩阵”,构建了异常温度影响程度预报指数,通过异常温度事件个例探讨相关产品的预报应用。结果表明:基于ECMWF的ERA5和集合预报构建的集合平均异常温度预报产品对我国夏季和冬季异常温度事件均有比较好的预报效果,预报性能好于或接近EFI,可作为业务上对异常温度事件预报的支撑产品。异常温度概率预报产品可以体现集合成员中的预报异常温度事件的信息,在中期预报时效对发现早期异常温度事件信号有优势,并可反映对异常天气预报的不确定性信息。异常温度影响程度预报指数结合了异常天气概率预报信息和异常程度预报信息,可对异常温度时间给出客观定量的预报结果,对一次异常低温事件的个例预报证明该指数有比较好的预报效果,对异常温度事件的预报和早期科学预警有一定指示意义和业务应用前景。 展开更多
关键词 集合预报 异常天气事件 极端预报指数 异常温度预报
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Analysis of climatic features and major meteorological disasters over the Three Gorges Region of the Yangtze River Basin in 2021 被引量:2
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作者 Tong Cui Xianyan Chen +3 位作者 Xukai Zou Qiang Zhang Hongling Zeng Linhai Sun 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2022年第6期57-63,共7页
Based on daily observation data in the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River Basin and global reanalysis data,the authors analyzed the climate characteristics and associated temporal variations in the main mete... Based on daily observation data in the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River Basin and global reanalysis data,the authors analyzed the climate characteristics and associated temporal variations in the main meteorological factors in 2021,as well as the year’s climatic events and meteorological disasters.The 2021 average temperature was 0.2℃above the 1991-2020 average and the 13 th-warmest year since 1961.Seasonally,winter and autumn were both warmer than usual.The annual mean precipitation was 12.8%above normal,and most regions experienced abundant rainfall throughout the year.The seasonal variation in precipitation was significant and the TGR had a wetter-than-normal spring and summer.The number of rainstorm days was higher than normal;the wind speed was above normal;and the relative humidity was higher than normal.In terms of rain acidity,2021 was tied with 2020 as the lowest since 1999.From mid-September to early October 2021,the TGR experienced exceptional high-temperature weather,which was driven by abnormal activity of mid-and high-latitude atmospheric circulation over the Eurasian continent and the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).In addition,a strong blocking high over the Ural Mountains accompanied by intense mid-latitude westerly winds prevented cyclonic disturbances from extending to the subtropical region.As a result,under the combined effect of the weaker-than-normal cold-air activities and the anomalous WPSH,the TGR experienced extreme high-temperature weather during early autumn 2021. 展开更多
关键词 Three Gorges Region Climatic anomaly Weather and climate events Extremely warm early autumn
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