黑龙江省冬季异常暖气候事件判定及其与环流指数的关系

利用1961-2018年黑龙江省61个站冬季逐日平均气温资料,以连续5 d日平均气温正距平超过1倍标准差为标准,对黑龙江省冬季异常暖事件进行了判断,并按照0.3个标准差将其分为一级、二级、三级异常暖气候事件。分析表明黑龙江省在58年间冬季共发生35次异常暖气候事件,累计天数270 d。异常暖气候事件发生有较明显的周期性变化,1961-1986年和2009-2018年为低发期、1987-2008年为高发期。71.4%的异常暖事件发生在1986年后,说明异常暖事件的频繁发生对1980年代中后期该省冬季气温显著升高有直接贡献。1961-2018年该省冬季发生一级、二级、三级异常暖气候事件分别为9次、10次、16次。研究月尺度同期环流指数异常与黑龙江省异常暖气候事件的关系,发现北半球极涡面积异常偏小、极涡强度异常偏强、东亚槽强度异常偏弱和北极涛动异常正位相与异常暖气候事件发生有较好的对应关系,为今后黑龙江省冬季异常暖气候事件的预测提供了可靠参考。

陕西省近46年异常冬暖的初步分析

用陕西省74个气象站1961—2006年度46 a冬季(当年12月至次年2月)平均气温资料,分析全省异常冬暖的时空变化特征,探讨异常冬暖与北半球大气环流异常的关系。结果表明:陕西确实存在着全省性及区域性的异常冬暖现象,在全省性异常冬暖的区域分布上,陕北北部与陕北南部冬暖表现最为突出,其次为关中东部;异常冬暖年北半球冬季500 hPa高度距平合成场上,东亚大槽与乌山高脊明显偏浅偏弱,全国受正距平环流场的控制,冷空气活动势力减弱,气候以偏暖为主,西北地区为明显偏暖区,陕西省东部与北部属西北区典型增暖区。

西藏30a异常冬暖的初步分析

本文利用西藏地区 1 7个气象站 1 971～ 2 0 0 0年 3 0 a冬季 (1 2月至翌年 2月 )平均气温资料 ,对我区异常冬暖的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明 :在我区确实存在着全区及区域性的异常冬暖现象 ,在全区性异常冬暖的区域分布上 。

热带大气环流对低纬太平洋SST暖异常的响应

本文使用一个地表温度由热平衡方程所控制的p—σ混合坐标5层原始方程球带模式,模拟了北半球冬季热带太平洋SST暖异常所产生的热带环流及其准双周周期振荡的异常特征。研究表明:SST暖异常可以产生热带辐合带上间隔约25—30个经度的降水中心,这种现象可能是SST暖异常区的扰动能量向西频散所造成的,而扰动相速则是向东的。SST暖异常愈强,引起的降水、高低空越赤道气流、北半球副热带西风气流、扰动西侧的反Walker环流及高层东风异常和扰动东侧的顺Walker环流以及高层西风异常也愈强。SST暖异常位于东太平洋时,所引起的这些异常也偏东,一般强度较弱。随着准双周振荡的衰减,不同SST暖异常所引起的环流和降水异常之间的差异也愈小。

2002年全球重大气候事件概述

全球气候仍为异常暖年。赤道中、东太平洋形成新的ENSO暖事件。冬季前期连续大雪严寒席卷了欧洲大部地区 ,美国南部也受到罕见大雪袭击。南亚东部、中南半岛湄公河三角洲雨季降水频繁 ,引发严重洪涝灾害。 8月 ,欧洲异常暴雨引发世纪大洪水 ,多国受灾严重。印度尼西亚、澳大利亚、美国西部、非洲大部降水持续偏少 ,发生严重干旱。太平洋。

1990—2009年中国大陆主汛期降水的变化特征及其可能原因

利用我国160个台站1951—2010年逐月降水观测资料,分析了我国1990—2009年夏季(6—8月)降水的变化特征,对其代表性雨型进行了分类,重点分析了1990年代和2000年代主要多雨带的变化特征。此外还分析了1990年代和2000年代的北半球500 hPa大尺度环流背景和气温及海温背景的差异,从而探讨了夏季降水年代际变化的可能原因。分析结果表明:1990年代长江流域汛期降水异常偏多,而2000年代主要多雨带北移到了淮河流域;多雨带北移的主要原因可能与2000年代全球气候异常变暖和海陆热力差异加大有关。

2018年4月初海西地区大风沙尘过程分析

利用高空资料、地面气象观测站及区域自动气象站资料,对2018年4月初海西一次大风沙尘天气过程的成因进行分析,结果表明:大风沙尘天气伴随寒潮是由西部路径入侵的较强冷锋所引发的,不断加强的巴尔喀什湖低槽和地面冷锋过境及南疆、青海气旋强烈发展的梯度风是沙尘爆发的重要动力机制;前期异常偏暖是寒潮天气产生的有利条件,而当地面冷高压中心强度在1035hPa以上,高空500hPa冷中心强度在-35℃以上时,易出现寒潮天气;柴达木盆地狭管加速和下滑效应及沙漠地表状况为沙尘暴形成提供了有利的地理环境。

The Kuroshio Transport East of Taiwan and the Sea Surface Height Anomaly from the Interior Ocean

The relationship between the Kuroshio transport to the east of Taiwan and the SSHA (Sea Surface Height Anomaly) field is studied based on the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) PCM-1 moored current meter array observation, the satellite altimeter data from the MSLA (Map of Sea Level Anomaly) products merged with the ERS and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data sets, and the WOCE satellite-tracked drifting buoy data. It is confirmed that the Kuroshio transport across PCM-1 array highly correlates with the SSHA upstream (22°-24°N, 121.75°-124°E). The SSHA is not locally generated by the developed Kuroshio meandering but is from the interior ocean and is propagating westward or northwestward. During the period from October 1992 to January 1998, two events of the northwestward propagating negative SSHA occurred, during which the SSHA merged into the Kuroshio and caused the remarkable low transport events in contrast to the normal westward propagating negative SSHA. It is also shown that the lower Kuroshio transport event would be generated in different ways. The negative anomaly in the upstream of PCM-1 array can reduce the Kuroshio transport by either offshore or onshore Kuroshio meandering. The positive anomaly, which is strong enough to detour the Kuroshio, can cause an offshore meandering and a low transport event at the PCM-1 array.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT ON IMPACT OF ANOMALOUS SST WARMING IN KUROSHIO EXTENSION IN PREVIOUS WINTER ON EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON

The impact of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Kuroshio Extension in the previous winter on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated by performing simulation tests using NCAR CAM3.The results show that anomalous SST warming in the Kuroshio Extension in winter causes the enhancement and northward movement of the EASM.The monsoon indexes for East Asian summer monsoon and land-sea thermal difference,which characterize the intensity of the EASM,show an obvious increase during the onset period of the EASM.Moreover,the land-sea thermal difference is more sensitive to warmer SST.Low-level southwesterly monsoon is clearly strengthened meanwhile westerly flows north (south) of the subtropical westerly jet axis are strengthened (weakened) in northern China,South China Sea,and the Western Pacific Ocean to the east of the Philippines.While there is an obvious decrease in precipitation over the Japanese archipelago and adjacent oceans and over the area from the south of the Yangtze River in eastern China to the Qinling Mountains in southern China,precipitation increases notably in northern China,the South China Sea,the East China Sea,the Yellow Sea,and the Western Pacific to the east of the Philippines.North China is the key area where the response of the EASM to the SST anomalous warming in the Kuroshio Extension is prominent.The surface air temperature shows a warming trend.The warming in the entire troposphere between 30oN and 50oN increases the land-sea thermal contrast,which plays an important role in the enhancement of the EASM.Atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies in China and its adjacent regions have a close relationship with the enhancement of the Western Pacific subtropical high and its northward extension.

The extreme Arctic warm anomaly in November 2020

In November 2020,the eastern Arctic experienced an extensive extreme warm anomaly(i.e.,the second strongest case since 1979),which was followed by extreme cold conditions over East Asia in early winter.The observed Arctic warm anomaly in November 2020 was able to extend upwards to the upper troposphere,characterized as a deep Arctic warm anomaly.In autumn 2020,substantial Arctic sea-ice loss that exceeded the record held since1979,accompanied by increased upward turbulent heat flux,was able to strongly warm the Arctic.Furthermore,there was abundant northward moisture transport into the Arctic from the North Atlantic,which was the strongest in the past four decades.This extreme moisture intrusion was able to enhance the downward longwave radiation and strongly contribute to the warm conditions in the Arctic.Further analysis indicated that the remote moisture intrusion into the Arctic was promoted by the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns,such as the wave train propagating from the midlatitude North Atlantic to the Arctic.This process may have been linked to the warmer sea surface temperature in the midlatitude North Atlantic.

Remote forcing of Indian Ocean warming on Northwest Pacific during El Nio decaying years:a FOAM model approach

This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific （NWP） during the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Observation data and the Fast Ocean- Atmosphere coupled Model 1.5 were used to investigate the triggering conditions under which the remote influence is formed between the positive sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly in the North Indian Ocean and the Anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone （ANWPA）. Our research show that it is only when there is a contributory background wind field over the Indian Ocean, i,e., when the Indian Summer Monsoon （ISM） reaches its peak, that the warmer SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean incites significant easterly wind anomalies in the lower atmosphere of the Indo-West tropical Pacific. This then produces the remote influence on the ANWPA. Therefore, the SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean might interfere with the prediction of the East Asia Summer Monsoon in the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Both the sustaining effect of local negative SST anomalies in the NWP, and the remote effect of positive SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean on the ANWPA, should be considered in further research.

Occurrences of Wintertime Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under the Background of Global Warming

Using tropical cyclone （TC） observations over a 58-yr period （1949-2006） from the China Meteorological Administration, the 40-year ECMWF Reanalysis （ERA-40）, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, and the Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature （HadISST） datasets, the authors have examined the behaviors of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the western north Pacific （WNP） in boreal winter （November-December-January-February）. The results demonstrate that the occurrences of wintertime TCs, including super typhoons, have decreased over the 58 years. More TCs are found to move westward than northeastward, and the annual total number of parabolic-track-type TCs is found to be decreasing. It is shown that negative sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） related to La Nifia events in the equatorial central Pacific facilitate more TC genesis in the WNP region. Large-scale anomalous cyclonic circulations in the tropical WNP in the lower troposphere are observed to be favorable for cyclogenesis in this area. On the contrary, the positive SSTAs and anomalous anticyclonic circulations that related to E1 Nifio events responsible for fewer TC genesis. Under the background of global warming, the western Pacific subtropical high tends to intensify and to expand more westward in the WNP, and the SSTAs display an increasing trend in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific. These climate trends of both atmospheric circulation and SSTAs affect wintertime TCs, inducing fewer TC occurrences and causing more TCs to move westward.

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.

NUMERICAL MODELING STUDY OF EFFECTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON ENSO

In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data to study the impacts of eastern Pacific warm pool on the formation and development of ENSO events. The effects of climatological mean sea surface temperature of the warm pool on forecast skill during the ENSO events of 1982-1999 are more considerable that those of climatological mean meridional winds and ocean currents. The forecast skill for the 1997/1998 E1 Nifio event is characterized by sensitivity to climatological mean sea surface temperature and anomalies of northerly winds and currents. The forecast skill is found insensitive to climatological mean northerly meridional winds and currents.