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近场强地震动预测中浅源地震的Asperity模型特征 被引量:19
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作者 王海云 陶夏新 《哈尔滨工业大学学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第11期1533-1539,共7页
选择了29个浅源地震的滑动分布,用来研究近场强地震动预测中浅源地震的凹凸体模型特征.将凹凸体分成三种类型研究:所有凹凸体,最大凹凸体和其它凹凸体.根据凹凸体的数量将凹凸体模型分为三种模型:所有凹凸体,单凹凸体和多凹凸体.每种模... 选择了29个浅源地震的滑动分布,用来研究近场强地震动预测中浅源地震的凹凸体模型特征.将凹凸体分成三种类型研究:所有凹凸体,最大凹凸体和其它凹凸体.根据凹凸体的数量将凹凸体模型分为三种模型:所有凹凸体,单凹凸体和多凹凸体.每种模型中,根据断层类型将断层分成三类:所有断层,倾滑断层和走滑断层.用最小二乘法建立了三种凹凸体模型中不同断层类型的凹凸体各参数与矩震级和相应断层参数之间的关系式.同时也建立了不同断层类型的地震破裂初始点位置参数与矩震级之间的关系式.系统地描述了近场强地震动预测中浅源地震的凹凸体模型特征. 展开更多
关键词 浅源地震 凹凸体模型 地震预测 破裂起始点
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2003年大姚和民乐—山丹地震1年尺度预测 被引量:33
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作者 叶青 杜学彬 +2 位作者 陈军营 谭大成 马占虎 《地震研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2005年第3期226-230,共5页
介绍了2003年云南大姚MS6.2,6.1和甘肃民乐—山丹MS6.1,5.8地震三要素的1年尺度预测情况,讨论了震中附近的地电阻率中短期异常特征。应用岩石加载实验中电阻率变化和DD模式解释了民乐—山丹地震前山丹地电的异常变化过程;大姚地震前同... 介绍了2003年云南大姚MS6.2,6.1和甘肃民乐—山丹MS6.1,5.8地震三要素的1年尺度预测情况,讨论了震中附近的地电阻率中短期异常特征。应用岩石加载实验中电阻率变化和DD模式解释了民乐—山丹地震前山丹地电的异常变化过程;大姚地震前同一活动断裂带上相邻台站其异常的相似性、同步性与以往的震例研究吻合;两组地震前电阻率中短期异常的各向异性变化与震源机制解的最大主压应力方位的关系明显,可以判定,这两组强地震附近地区的地电阻率异常与强地震的晚期孕育过程有关。 展开更多
关键词 强地震预测 地电阻率 1年尺度 大姚 民乐-山丹
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干支60周期及可公度性与江苏—南黄海地区地震预测 被引量:1
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作者 门可佩 赵兵 《地震地磁观测与研究》 1998年第6期39-44,共6页
根据1500年以来的地震资料分析,江苏—南黄海地区M≥5中强震具有显著的干支60周期性特征,南黄海海域M≥6强震具有良好的可公度性,并对其基本结构和预测功能进行了研究。未来几年该区依然存在5~6级地震的危险性,第二活... 根据1500年以来的地震资料分析,江苏—南黄海地区M≥5中强震具有显著的干支60周期性特征,南黄海海域M≥6强震具有良好的可公度性,并对其基本结构和预测功能进行了研究。未来几年该区依然存在5~6级地震的危险性,第二活跃幕可能将持续到2009年前后。 展开更多
关键词 江苏 南黄海地区 可公度性 强地震预测 地震
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内蒙古和林格尔6.3级地震前地震的空段异常 被引量:1
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作者 薛丁 朱学健 朱祯祥 《山西地震》 2004年第2期23-25,共3页
1976年4月6日内蒙古和林格尔6.3级地震是华北北部地区1次重要的地震,该地震前出现了明显的地震空段异常。介绍了该地震空段的时空特征,分析了地震空段的形成至解体与中强地震成组活动的关系。认为,地震空段可作为华北北部地区中强地震... 1976年4月6日内蒙古和林格尔6.3级地震是华北北部地区1次重要的地震,该地震前出现了明显的地震空段异常。介绍了该地震空段的时空特征,分析了地震空段的形成至解体与中强地震成组活动的关系。认为,地震空段可作为华北北部地区中强地震预测的中期判据,这对该地区地震预测有帮助意义。 展开更多
关键词 内蒙古 和林格尔6.3级地震 地震空区 强地震预测 华北地区
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广州市主要断裂带特征震源模型研究 被引量:1
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作者 赵伯明 《华南地震》 2008年第4期1-8,共8页
在广州市目标区内的主要活动断层危险性评价的基础上,综合活断层探测的研究成果和资料,对于具有潜在发震可能的主要断层,基于凹凸体震源模型建模理论进行了特征计算模型的建模。根据断层地震危险性分析确定的断层发震震级和几何参数,进... 在广州市目标区内的主要活动断层危险性评价的基础上,综合活断层探测的研究成果和资料,对于具有潜在发震可能的主要断层,基于凹凸体震源模型建模理论进行了特征计算模型的建模。根据断层地震危险性分析确定的断层发震震级和几何参数,进行了断层的宏观参数和微观参数的设定。为通过复核预测方法计算与合成近断层强地震动场和城市危害性评价提供了科学的依据。 展开更多
关键词 震源参数 活断层 震源模型(Asperity Model) 地震预测 广州市
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广州地区三维地下速度结构模型建立及优化研究 被引量:1
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作者 赵伯明 《华南地震》 2008年第4期45-52,共8页
利用广州地区详尽的深、浅部地震勘探资料,大深度钻孔和测速等资料,运用自主开发的建模程序和多功能商业软件的二次开发功能高速处理海量数据进行建模,采用开发的二元三次B-Spline函数建模方法解决大城市圈建模数据空间分布不均匀的问... 利用广州地区详尽的深、浅部地震勘探资料,大深度钻孔和测速等资料,运用自主开发的建模程序和多功能商业软件的二次开发功能高速处理海量数据进行建模,采用开发的二元三次B-Spline函数建模方法解决大城市圈建模数据空间分布不均匀的问题并进行模型优化,建立了广州地区符合地质学和地形学理论三维不均匀地下速度结构模型,为基于活断层探测和地震动危险性评价基础上的强地震动预测(模拟)奠定了基础。 展开更多
关键词 活断层 地下速度结构模型 B-Spline函数 地震预测 广州地区
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Anomalies of Precursory Group and Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region 被引量:1
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作者 ShiShaoxian ChengWanzheng 《Earthquake Research in China》 2004年第4期348-356,共9页
Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of pr... Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly. 展开更多
关键词 Anomalies of precursory group Synthetic information Short-term and impending characteristic anomaly in the near-source area Prediction of the grouped strong earthquakes
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Study of the Seismicity of Strong Earthquakes in the Yunnan Area 被引量:1
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作者 Huangfu Gang Qin Jiazheng 《Earthquake Research in China》 2006年第4期449-459,共11页
Yunnan is located in the east margin of the collision zone between the India Plate and the Eurasian Plate on the Chinese Continent, where crustal movement is violent and moderatestrong earthquakes are frequent. In add... Yunnan is located in the east margin of the collision zone between the India Plate and the Eurasian Plate on the Chinese Continent, where crustal movement is violent and moderatestrong earthquakes are frequent. In addition, the area features marked active block movement. Therefore, Yunnan is a perfect place for research on strong earthquake activity. Through the study on the temporal and spatial distribution of the M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes and the related earthquake dynamics in Yunnan in the last century, we conclude that the four seismically active periods, which are characterized by alternative activity in the east and the west part of Yunnan, possibly result from a combination of active and quiescent periods in each of the east and west part. And for every 100 years, there may be a period in which strong earthquakes occur in the east and west parts simultaneously. In addition, the seismicity of strong earthquakes in Yunnan corresponds well to that in the peripheral region. The seismicity of the great earthquakes in the Andaman-Myanmar Tectonic Arc belt indicates, to some extent, the beginning of a seismically active period in Yunnan. The seismicity of strong earthquakes in east Yunnan is closely related to that in Sichuan. Strong earthquakes in Sichuan often occur later than those in Yunnan. Furthermore, in the east part of Ynnnan, the three procedures including continuous occurrence of moderate-strong earthquake, quiescent period, and the occurrence of the first strong earthquake may be the style of the beginning of the earthquake active period. The above cognition is helpful to the study of earthquake prediction, seismogenic mechanism, and the dynamics of the plate margin in Yunnan. 展开更多
关键词 Seismicity of strong earthquake Earthquake prediction Yunnan area
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A Study on the Prediction Method of Strong Earthquakes Based on Dynamic Seismicity Patterns with Dynamic Implications
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作者 Wang Xingzhou Wang Haitao +5 位作者 Chen Yuwei Huang Xianliang Shen Xiaoqi Miao Peng Chen Anguo Hong Dequan 《Earthquake Research in China》 2012年第2期234-242,共9页
Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper ... Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper puts forward the prediction method using the dynamic seismicity pattern with dynamic implications. This method considers the formation and evolution of the seismic gap on the basis of plate movement and structural characteristics. Through analysis of 26 cases of earthquakes of MS≥5.0 occurring in East China and South China, this paper obtains the relationship between the main shock with seismic gap and active fault's location, as well as the relationship between the seismic gap and location and strike of active faults. Meanwhile, this paper provides a dynamic explanation of the differences in the formation and evolution patterns of the seismic gap between the two regions, thus providing the physical basis for and reducing the uncertainty of predicting earthquakes using the seismic gap method. 展开更多
关键词 Seismic gap Dynamic pattern Active fault Plate movement
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