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环境风速垂直切变对西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的影响 被引量:18
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作者 白莉娜 王元 《热带气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2013年第6期955-962,共8页
利用2000---2006年中国气象局《热带气旋年鉴》和NCEP再分析日资料,对环境风垂直切变对西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)强度变化的影响进行统计分析。首先比较了不同高度层之间、不同水平区域平均的全风速垂直切变和纬向风速垂直切变对TC强... 利用2000---2006年中国气象局《热带气旋年鉴》和NCEP再分析日资料,对环境风垂直切变对西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)强度变化的影响进行统计分析。首先比较了不同高度层之间、不同水平区域平均的全风速垂直切变和纬向风速垂直切变对TC强度变化的影响,结果表明,全风速切变对TC强度变化的抑制作用显著大于纬向风速垂直切变;以200~800km的圆环区域平均计算的风速垂直切变与TC强度变化的负相关最显著;中高层的风速垂直切变与TC强度变化的相关优于中低层。其次,全风速切变大于8m/s后抑制TC增强,且这种抑制作用存在6.60h的滞后。全风速垂直切变大时,滞后时间较短:当全风速切变为8~9m/s(9—10m/s)时,TC强度在未来60(48)h开始减弱;当全风速切变大于10m/s时,TC在6h内开始减弱。最后,利用偏最小二乘回归建立TC强度变化的预报模型PLS—STIPSV。结果表明,加入风速垂直切变因子后对TC强度预报有所改进,并通过分析标准化回归系数进一步证实了上述的统计结果。 展开更多
关键词 天气学 热带气旋强度变化 统计分析 环境风垂直切变 强度预报模型
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Visualization of uncertainty associated with spatial prediction of continuous variables using HSI color model:a case study of prediction of pH for topsoil in peri-urban Beijing,China 被引量:1
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作者 檀满枝 陈杰 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第4期319-322,共4页
Hue-Saturation-Intensity (HSI) color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of to... Hue-Saturation-Intensity (HSI) color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of topsoil in the peri-urban Beijing. A two-dimensional legend was designed to accompany the visualization-vertical axis (hues) for visualizing the predicted values and horizontal axis (whiteness) for visualizing the prediction error. Moreover, different ways of visualizing uncertainty were briefly reviewed in this paper. This case study indicated that visualization of both predictions and prediction uncertainty offered a possibility to enhance visual exploration of the data uncertainty and to compare different prediction methods or predictions of totally different variables. The whitish region of the visualization map can be simply interpreted as unsatisfactory prediction results, where may need additional samples or more suitable prediction models for a better prediction results. 展开更多
关键词 Hue-Saturation-Intensity color model spatial prediction UNCERTAINTY VISUALIZATION
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