系统论视域下我国体育强国评估指标体系的构建研究

为了更全面地反映出我国体育强国发展的状况,深刻揭示体育强国的内涵,探究其评价体系是研究路径之一。研究运用德尔菲法对专家决策体系进行多轮深度访谈,得出了2个一级指标、5个二级指标及44个三级指标,以之构成了体育强国的评估指标体系。并采用层次分析法对各级指标权重进行计算,得出竞技体育占比最高,其他依次为群众体育、体育教育、体育产业、体育文化。各指标的建立对进一步提升关于体育强国的认识与理解有较大的促进作用。

现代自我认同何以可能——基于查尔斯·泰勒的道德地形学的思考

在日益祛魅的当代社会中,价值逐渐从事实中剥离出来,道德的崇高意义日益褪色,自我认同、主体性重构等问题日益凸显。查尔斯·泰勒认为,在目前社会生活中,人们对日常生活的肯定无以复加,而对道德理想的关注付诸阙如,恰恰是层层积淀的道德理想和观念构成了人类生活的基石并改变着日常生活。当所有的价值理性、道德的崇高意义沦落为工具理性的替代物时,人之为人的特性就不复存在。查尔斯·泰勒建构了道德地形学、多元化的道德根源、强评估、本真性伦理等概念给无所适从的现代人提供了安身立命之所,给现代自我认同和主体性重建何以可能等问题提供了理论基础。事实上,这种建构善的、崇高意义的道德标准并非是宗教式的评判,而是在个人主义的基础上参阅历史上积淀下来的道德观念,在日常生活的交往基础上形成一种较好的评价标准。同时,这对解决我国社会生活中原子化、利己主义盛行的现象有一定借鉴意义。

探析文化批评的当代意识——对理查德·沃林文化批评思想的剖析

文化批评本身就是一种强评估。它要对批评对象作出评判,势必要有批评的根据,然而这种根据又不是随意选取的,它是随语境的变化而变化的。当信仰出现危机之时,人们对周遭事物怎样作出判断?对主流文化消解的快感是否意味着一种新精神结构的生成,这是对长期以来的革命一直为主流文化所弘扬并且构成中国人思想基调内容的应有反思与回看。多元文化结构的存在对以上精神状况起到了重要的提升与引导作用。

Ultimate Strength Assessment of a Tanker Hull Based on Experimentally Developed Master Curves

A geometrically similar scaling was made from small-scale specimen to full-scale stiffened panels and then their collapse behaviour is investigated. It is considered that the stiffened panel compressive ultimate strength test was designed according to geometrical scaling laws so that the output of the test could be used as representative of the stiffened panels of the compressive zone of a tanker hull subjected to vertical bending moment. The ultimate strength of a tanker hull is analysed by a FE analysis using the experimentally developed master stress-strain curves which are obtained by the beam tension test and the compressive test of the stiffened panel, and are then compared with the result achieved by the progressive collapse method.

Reliability Analysis Based on a Direct Ship Hull Strength Assessment

A method of reliability analysis based on a direct strength calculation employing the von Mises stress failure criterion is presented here. The short term strain distributions of ship hull structural components are identified through the statistical analysis of the wave-induced strain history and the long term distributions by the weighted summation of the short term strain distributions. The wave-induced long term strain distribution is combined with the still water strain. The extreme strain distribution of the response strain is obtained by statistical analysis of the combined strains. The limit state function of the reliability analysis is based on the von Mises stress failure criterion, including the related uncertainties due to the quality of the material and model uncertainty. The reliability index is calculated using FORM and sensitivity analysis of each variable that has effects on the reliability is also discussed.

Rapid assessment of regional superficial landslide under heavy rainfall

In order to establish a rapid method for regional slope stability analysis under rainfall,matric suction and seepage force were taken into account after obtaining explicit solution of infiltration depth.Moreover,simplified analysis model under 3D condition was put forward based on identification and division of slope units,as well as modification of sliding direction of each column.The result shows that explicit solution of infiltration depth is of good precision;for the given model,safety factors without taking seepage force into account are 1.82-2.94 times higher;the stagnation point of slope angle is located approximately in the range of(45°,50°);the safety factor changes insignificantly when wetting front is deeper than 2 m;when matric suction changes in the specified range,the maximum variations of safety factor are less than 0.5,which proves that matric suction plays an insignificant role in maintaining slope stability compared to the slope angle and infiltration depth.Incorporated with geographic information system,a practical application of regional slope stability assessment verifies the applicability of the proposed method.

Assessment of strength development in cement-admixed artificial organic soil with GX07

To explore the stabilization effect of stabilizing agent GX07 on treating organic soil and the influence of organic matter on the strength development of stabilized soil,artificial organic soil with various organic matter content was obtained by adding different amounts of fulvic acid into non-organic clay,and then liquid-plastic limit tests were carried out on the artificial organic soil.Meanwhile,unconfined compressive strength(UCS) tests were performed on cement-only soil and composite stabilized soil,respectively.The test results indicate that the plastic limit of soil samples increases linearly,and the liquid limit increases exponentially as the organic matter content increases.The strength of stabilized soil is well correlated with the organic matter content,cement content,stabilizing agent content and curing time.When the organic matter content is 6%,as the cement content varies in the range of 10%-20%,the strength of cement-only soil increases from 88.5 to 280.8 kPa.Once 12.6% GX07 is added into the mix,the strength of stabilized soil is 4.93 times compared with that of cement-only soil.GX07 can obviously improve the strength of cemented-soil and has a good economic applicability.A strength model is proposed to predict strength development.

Fracture strength evaluation of titanium alloys using modified average stress criterion

Structural integrity procedures were used to demonstrate the fitness for the purpose of engineering components transmitting loads. The prediction of the fracture strength of titanium alloys containing sharp notches through the damage model depends on the un-notched strength and the critical length of the damage zone ahead of the notch. In general, the critical length of the damage zone depends on the material, specimen, and size of the sharp notch. Modifications were made in one of the stress fracture criteria known as the average stress criterion for accurate prediction of notched tensile strength of titanium alloy specimen containing sharp notches. To examine the adequacy of these modifications, fracture data of center-cracked titanium alloys with various thicknesses are considered. The notched （fracture） strength estimates are found to be close to the test results. The modified average stress criterion is very simple to predict the notched tensile strength.

An improved method to assess the required strength of cemented backfill in underground stopes with an open face

Backfill is increasingly used in underground mines to reduce the surface impact from the wastes produced by the mining operations. But the main objectives of backfilling are to improve ground stability and reduce ore dilution. To this end, the backfill in a stope must possess a minimum strength to remain self-standing during mining of an adjacent stope. This required strength is often estimated using a solution proposed by Mitchell and co-workers, which was based on a limit equilibrium analysis of a wedge exposed by the open face. In this paper, three dimensional numerical simulations have been performed to assess the behavior of the wedge model. A new limit equilibrium solution is proposed, based on the backfill displacements obtained from the simulations. Comparisons are made between the proposed solution and experimental and numerical modeling results. Compared with the previous solution, a better agreement is obtained between the new solution and experimental results for the required cohesion and factor of safety. For large scale(field) conditions, the results also show that the required strength obtained from the proposed solution corresponds quite well to the simulated backfill response.

Fracture strength of centre surface cracked tensile specimens made of 2219-T87 Al alloy welding

Fracture data of both parent metal and weldment metals from surface cracked tensile plates made of 2219-T87 Al alloy at cryogenic temperatures were correlated using a modified inherent flaw model. Fracture parameters to generate the failure assessment diagram were determined for the material. Fracture analysis was carried out considering the ultimate tensile strength value and the fracture data of aluminium base metal and weldment metal generated from center–surface cracked tensile specimens having different thicknesses. The failure assessment diagram of a material generated from tensile fracture plate configuration can be applied to failure pressure estimation of any cracked component, made of the same material.

Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the A1B scenario, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves, and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38℃ per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

Quantitative Assessment of Hepatic Fibrosis by Contrast-enhanced Ultrasonography

Objective To explore the contrast-enhanced ultrasonographic features for quantitative assessment of hepatic fibrosis. Methods 86 patients with chronic viral hepatitis B were enrolled in this study from March 2007 to August 2009. The patients were classified into 5 groups (S0-S4) according to fibrosis stage evaluated with ultrasound guided liver biopsy. New contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) features including area under the time-intensity curve (TIC) of portal venous phase/hepatic arterial phase (Qp/Qa) and intensity of portal venous phase/hepatic arterial phase (Ip/Ia) were used to detect the blood supply ratio (portal vein/hepatic artery) in each group. Arrival time of portal vein trunk (Tp) and decreasing rate of TIC (β ) were also analyzed. Results Qp/Qa and Ip/Ia decreased from S0 to S4, while Tp and β increased. These 4 features were significantly correlated with the degree of fibrosis (P<0.001) and were significantly different among the five groups (P<0.001). Sensitivity and specificity of Ip/Ia were 80% and 86% for groups ≥S1, 75% and 86% for groups ≥ S2, 71% and 84% for groups ≥ S3, and 76% and 80% for group S4, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of Qp/Qa were 70% and 88% for groups ≥ S1, 80% and 76% for groups ≥ S2, 74% and 70% for groups ≥ S3, and 81% and 95% for group S4, respectively. Conclusion Ip/Ia and Qp/Qa could be adopted as reliable, non-invasive features for quantitative assessment of hepatic fibrosis.

Defect assessment of welded specimen considering weld induced residual stresses using SINTAP procedure and FEA

The defect assessment in butt-welded joint of ASTM A36 steel plates and 7075-T7351 aluminum alloy plates containing transverse through thickness crack was analyzed using SINTAP procedure and FEA incorporating weld induced residual stresses. Weld induced longitudinal residual stress profile can be obtained through SINTAP procedure, FEA or experimental analysis. This residual stress profile can be fitted with the trapezoidal residual stress profile available in SINTAP. For three different cases, crack length and residual stress intensity factor （SIF） are calculated and its comparison with the results obtained through FEA is plotted with respect to crack length. The stress intensity factor for mechanical loading is also plotted in the same graph. Using this graphical plot, the total SIF, including residual stress and mechanical loading, can be calculated for any particular crack size. The total SIF can be compared with the fracture toughness of the material for damage tolerance analysis. Also a failure assessment diagram is drawn for welded 7075-T7351 aluminum alloy plates with different crack sizes for as-welded （only residual stress） and mechanical loading along with the existing weld induced residual stresses to show the safety level for a particular crack size and mechanical loading.

Land Degradation Evaluation in North Hebei Province Based on Remote Sensing and GIS

Land degradation is one of the serious environmental problems that can lead to poverty, and is especially prominent in eco-fragile areas in developing countries and increases the risk of environmental safety. North Hebei Province belongs to an ecologically fragile region in North China, which has great impact on the eco-safety of Beijing and Tianjin. Using Landsat TM data and GIS, this paper evaluates land degradation in North Hebei province of China from the the 1960′s to 1987 and 2000. Land use/cover change pattern from 1987 to 2000, its regional difference and forest change characteristics will also be analyzed; soil erosion intensity and arable land suitability were also evaluated. Results revealed that land use/cover pattern in this study area did not change greatly from 1987 to 2000. The structure and function of regional land ecosystem was at a level of local improvement and integral deterioration. Land above medium soil erosion intensity reached 21 percent, which was also the area with a serious soil erosion and land degradation problem. Soil erosion and land degradation intensity of grassland was the biggest. For the present arable land, the proportion of high suitability was 13 percent.

No-Reference Quality Assessment of Enhanced Images

Image enhancement is a popular technique,which is widely used to improve the visual quality of images.While image enhancement has been extensively investigated,the relevant quality assessment of enhanced images remains an open problem,which may hinder further development of enhancement techniques.In this paper,a no-reference quality metric for digitally enhanced images is proposed.Three kinds of features are extracted for characterizing the quality of enhanced images,including non-structural information,sharpness and naturalness.Specifically,a total of 42 perceptual features are extracted and used to train a support vector regression(SVR) model.Finally,the trained SVR model is used for predicting the quality of enhanced images.The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on several enhancement-related databases,including a new enhanced image database built by the authors.The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency and advantage of the proposed metric.

Main Factors Affecting the Distribution of the Macroscopic Destruction Field of Earthquake

It is proposed that some possible macroseismic epicenters can be determined quickly from the relationship that the microseismic epicenters located by instruments bear with faults. Based on these so-called macroseismic epicenters, we can make fast seismic hazard estimation after a shock by use of the empirical distribution model of seismic intensity. In comparison with the method that uses the microseismic epicenters directly, this approach can increase the precision of fast seismic hazard estimation. Statistical analysis of 133 main earthquakes in China was made. The result shows that the deviation distance between the microseismic epicenter and macroseismic epicenter falls within the range of 35 km for 88 % earthquakes of the total and within the range of 35 to 75 km for the remaining ones. Then, we can take the area that has the microseismic epicenter as its center and is 35 km in radius as the area for emphatic analysis, and take the area within 75 km around the microseismic epicenter as the area for general analysis. The relation between the 66 earthquake cases on the N-S Seismic Belt in China and the spatial distribution characteristics of faults and the results of focal mechanism solution were analyzed in detail. We know from the analysis that the error of instrumental epicenter determination is not the only factor that gives effects to the deviation of the macroseismic epicenter. In addition to it, the fault size, fault distribution, fault activity, fault intersection types, earthquake magnitude, etc. are also main affecting factors. By sorting out, processing and analyzing these affecting factors, the principle and procedures for quickly determining the possible position of the macroseismic epicenter were set up. Taking these as a basis and establishing a nationwide database of faults that contains relevant factors, it is possible to apply this method in practical fast estimation of seismic hazard.

Study of the Evaluation Mode on Fashion Brand Value

This paper generally analyzes the current international and domestic brand evaluation theory on brand value. Starting from the most basic assessment of object analysis, it analyzes the current methods of brand evaluation and its focus, and then analyzes the actual operation of the most authoritative international brand evaluation agencies - Interbrand, to conduct a detailed research and analysis. Based on this, combining with the current situation of China fashion brand market, it re-summaries the evaluation parameter respectively, from the short-term brand strength factors, to the long-term brand benefit and consumer factors, in order to establish a new evaluation frame fit for China fashion industry.

Assessing China 2030 carbon emissions from fossil fuels:based on system dynamics model

The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analy- zing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions ： 1 ） the BAU （ busi- ness as usual） scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2 ） the TECH （technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3 ） the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4 ） the TECH＆BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable, but also require great effort to put in.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for Japan after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Mega-Thrust Earthquake （Mw9.0）

The Tohoku-Oki earthquake （Mw 9.0） of March 11,2011, was the largest event in the history of Japan. This magnitude 9.0 mega-thrust earthquake initiated approximately 100 km off-shore of Miyagi prefecture and the rupture extended 400-500 km along the Pacific plate. Due to the strong ground motions and tsunami associated by this event, approximately twenty thousand people were killed or missing and more than 220 thousands houses and buildings were totally or partially destroyed. This mega-thrust earthquake was not considered in the national seismic hazard maps for Japan that was published by the HERP （headquarters for earthquake research promotion） of Japan. By comparing the results of the seismic hazard assessment and observed strong ground motions, we understand that the results of assessment were underestimated in Fukushima prefecture and northern part of Ibaraki prefecture. Its cause primarily lies in that it failed to evaluate the Mw 9.0 mega-thrust earthquake in the long-term evaluation for seismic activities. On the other hand, another cause is that we could not make the functional framework which is prepared for treatment of uncertainty for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment work fully. Based on the lessons learned from this earthquake disaster and the experience that we have engaged in the seismic hazard mapping project of Japan, we consider problems and issues to be resolved for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and make new proposals to improve probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Japan.

Dynamic mechanisms of earthquake-triggered landslides

Earthquake-triggered landslides usually cause great disasters,and yet their dynamic mechanisms remain poorly understood.This paper will derive a general conceptual landslide model from the geometric and kinematic features of the most landslide masses triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Kinematic characteristics and dynamic processes are simulated here by means of finite element method(FEM)based on the dynamic process of the discontinuous deformable body.The calculated results presented the whole course of landslide motion,and displayed some typical kinematic characteristics such as initiation,sliding,ejection,collision,flying in the air,and climbing of landslides.The simulation result also shows that,under combined seismic inertial forces and gravity,landslides will start to slip once it overcomes the friction between the sliding mass and slip-bed,then it will move from slow to fast along the slippery bed until it ejects from the slip-bed.Moreover,the high frequencies and serious damages by landslides in the Wenchuan earthquake are caused by the strong ground motion on the mountain slopes in and around the epicenter that was dramatically amplified owing to both resonances produced by the seismic event and topographical amplification by seismic motion.In addition,the modeling results suggest that the direction,amplitude,frequency,and duration of strong ground motion have a great influence on the stability of landslide mass.Therefore,the study helps us better understand dynamic mechanism of landslides,seismic hazard assessment,and dynamic earthquake triggering.