合同法分则涵摄的“隐性失灵”及其应对——基于委托任意解除的实例考察

将《合同法》分则各章的先导条款看作立法定义并通过涵摄推论确定系争合同法效果的做法,在系争合同整体利益格局已部分偏离立法者设想之典型状况时,可能造成个别条文援用的不适当。面对这种概念涵摄"隐性失灵"的案件,应回归分则的类型构造,承认分则规范本质上是对制定法命令所指向之规范类型的描述与评价,并在此基础上获取疑问条文背后规范类型的整体形象,顺次对系争合同展开归列判断与相似性判断,最终确定是否援用该条文。

Vegetation Change of Ecotone in West of Northeast China Plain Using Time-series Remote Sensing Data

Multi-temporal series of satellite SPOT-VEGETATION normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) data from 1998 to 2007 were used for analyzing vegetation change of the ecotone in the west of the Northeast China Plain. The yearly and monthly maximal values,anomalies and change rates of NDVI and NDWI were calculated to reveal the interannual and seasonal changes in vegetation cover and vegetation water content. Linear regression method was adopted to characterize the trends in vegetation change. The yearly maximal NDVI decreased from 0.41 in 1998 to 0.37 in 2007,implying the decreasing trend of vegetation activity. There was a significant decrease of maximal NDVI in spring and summer over the study period,while an increase trend was observed in autumn. The vegetation-improved regions and vegetation-degraded regions occupied 17.03% and 20.30% of the study area,respectively. The maximal NDWI over growing season dropped by 0.027 in 1998–2007,and about 15.15% of the study area showed a decreasing trend of water content. Vegetation water stress in autumn was better than that in spring. Vegetation cover and water content variations were sensitive to annual precipitation,autumn precipitation and summer temperature. The vegetation degradation trend in this ecotone might be induced by the warm-drying climate especially continuous spring and summer drought in the recent ten years.

Multivariate time series prediction based on AR_CLSTM

Time series is a kind of data widely used in various fields such as electricity forecasting,exchange rate forecasting,and solar power generation forecasting,and therefore time series prediction is of great significance.Recently,the encoder-decoder model combined with long short-term memory(LSTM)is widely used for multivariate time series prediction.However,the encoder can only encode information into fixed-length vectors,hence the performance of the model decreases rapidly as the length of the input sequence or output sequence increases.To solve this problem,we propose a combination model named AR_CLSTM based on the encoder_decoder structure and linear autoregression.The model uses a time step-based attention mechanism to enable the decoder to adaptively select past hidden states and extract useful information,and then uses convolution structure to learn the internal relationship between different dimensions of multivariate time series.In addition,AR_CLSTM combines the traditional linear autoregressive method to learn the linear relationship of the time series,so as to further reduce the error of time series prediction in the encoder_decoder structure and improve the multivariate time series Predictive effect.Experiments show that the AR_CLSTM model performs well in different time series predictions,and its root mean square error,mean square error,and average absolute error all decrease significantly.

A meta-analysis of the effects of energy intake on risk of digestive cancers

AIM:To quantitatively assess the relationship between energy intake and the incidence of digestive cancers in a meta-analysis of cohort studies.METHODS:We searched MEDLINE,EMBASE,Science Citation Index Expanded,and the bibliographies of retrieved articles.Studies were included if they reported relative risks(RRs) and corresponding 95% CIs of digestive cancers with respect to total energy intake.When RRs were not available in the published article,they were computed from the exposure distributions.Data were extracted independently by two investigators and discrepancies were resolved by discussion with a third investigator.We performed fixed-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions to compute the summary RR for highest versus lowest category of energy intake and for per unit energy intake and digestive cancer incidence by giving each study-specific RR a weight that was proportional to its precision.RESULTS:Nineteen studies consisting of 13 independent cohorts met the inclusion criteria.The studiesincluded 995 577 participants and 5620 incident cases of digestive cancer with an average follow-up of 11.1 years.A significant inverse association was observed between energy intake and the incidence of digestive cancers.The RR of digestive cancers for the highest compared to the lowest caloric intake category was 0.90(95% CI 0.81-0.98,P < 0.05).The RR for an increment of 239 kcal/d energy intake was 0.97(95% CI 0.95-0.99,P < 0.05) in the fixed model.In subgroup analyses,we noted that energy intake was associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer(RR 0.90,95% CI 0.81-0.99,P < 0.05) and an increased risk of gastric cancer(RR 1.19,95% CI 1.08-1.31,P < 0.01).There appeared to be no association with esophageal(RR 0.96,95% CI 0.86-1.07,P > 0.05) or pancreatic(RR 0.79,95% CI 0.49-1.09,P > 0.05) cancer.Associations were also similar in studies from North America and Europe.The RR was 1.02(95% CI 0.79-1.25,P > 0.05) when considering the six studies conducted in North America and 0.87(95% CI 0.77-0.98,P < 0.05) for the five studies from Europe.CONCLUSION:Our findings suggest that high energy intake may reduce the total digestive cancer incidence and has a preventive effect on colorectal cancer.

Quantile Trends in Temperature Extremes in China

A number of recent studies have examined trends in extreme temperature indices using a linear regression model based on ordinary least-squares. In this study, quantile regression was, for the first time, applied to examine the trends not only in the mean but also in all parts of the distribution of several extreme temperature indices in China for the period 1960–2008. For China as a whole, the slopes in almost all the quantiles of the distribution showed a notable increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a significant decrease in the number of cool nights. These changes became much faster as the quantile increased. However, although the number of cool days exhibited a significant decrease in the mean trend estimated by classical linear regression, there was no obvious trend in the upper and lower quantiles. This finding suggests that examining the trends in different parts of the distribution of the time-series is of great importance. The spatial distribution of the trend in the 90 th quantile indicated that there was a pronounced increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of cool nights for most of China, but especially in the northern and western parts of China, while there was no significant change for the number of cool days at almost all the stations.

Predicting Pepper Fruit Yield Based on Temperature and Solar Radiation

Two separate experiments were conducted in bell pepper （Capsicum annum L.） in order to evaluate the effects of temperature and radiation on fruit yield. The results of the temperature experiment were integrated into the radiation experiment to give an overall empirical model for potential pepper fruit yield grown in greenhouse. In the temperature experiment, pepper plants were planted during the summer time of Israel in the Arava region in a commercial, one hectare greenhouse, equipped with a cooling wet-mat system. Eleven plots were assigned along the 80 m down the row from the wet mat. Air seasonal temperatures were affected by the distance from the wet-mat and linearly increased at the rate of 0.036 ℃/m, while relative humidity was not affected. Fruit yield dropped from 19.4 kg/m at a distance of 20 m, to 13.1 kg/m2 at 80 m away from the wet-mat, respectively. Yield regression decreased linearly with increased temperature at -11%/℃. In the radiation experiment, during the summer time of Israel in the Western Negev region, three sweet pepper varieties were grown under six radiation treatments, which accumulated to the following relative global radiation fractions （lint/lout）： 0.72, 0.61, 0.46, 0.38, 0.32 and 0.21 from outside radiation. The three varieties did not differ in their response to radiation. The seasonal temperature normalized yield response to radiation quantity at 21 ℃ （Y21） yielded a linear regression formula with a slope of 7.6 × 10^-3 kg/m^2/MJ. The multiplicative model of temperature and radiation on fruit yield was found to predict well the potential fruit yield for various locations and seasons in Israel.

Uptake of prostate cancer screening and associated factors among Chinese men aged 50 or more: a population-based survey

Objective: To investigate the uptake rate of prostate specific antigen(PSA) testing among Hong Kong Chinese males aged 50 or above, and identify factors associated with the likelihood of undergoing a PSA test.Methods: A population-based telephone survey was conducted in Hong Kong in 2007. The survey covered demographic information, perceived health status, use of complementary therapy, cancer screening behavior, perceived susceptibility to cancer and family history of cancer. Descriptive statistics, percentages and logistic regression analysis were used for data analysis.Results: A total of 1,002 men aged 50 or above took part in the study(response rate =67%), and the uptake rate of PSA testing was found to be 10%. Employment status, use of complementary therapy, perceiving regular visits to a doctor as good for health and the recommendations of health professionals were significant factors associated with PSA testing.Conclusion: The uptake rate of PSA testing in the study population was very low. Among all the factors identified, recommendations from health professionals had the strongest association with the uptake of PSA testing, and they should therefore take an active role in educating this population about cancer prevention and detection.

Accuracy Analysis on Bundle Adjustment of Remote Sensing Images Based on Dual Quaternion

A bundle adjustment method of remote sensing images based on dual quaternion is presented,which conducted the uniform disposal corresponding location and attitude of sequence images by the dual quaternion.The constraint relationship of image itself and sequence images is constructed to compensate the systematic errors.The feasibility of this method used in bundle adjustment is theoretically tested by the analysis of the structural characteristics of error equation and normal equation based on dual quaternion.Different distributions of control points and stepwise regression analysis are introduced into the experiment for RC30 image.The results show that the adjustment accuracy can achieve 0.2min plane and 1min elevation.As a result,this method provides a new technique for geometric location problem of remote sensing images.

On Period of Fibonacci Sequence in Finite Rings with Identity of Order P^2

In this paper, we obtain the period of generalized Fibonacci sequence in finite rings with identity of order p2 by using equality recursively defined by Fn＋2 = A1Fn＋1 ＋ A0Fn, for n ≥ 0, where F0 = 0 （ the zero of the ring）, F1 = 1 （the identity of the ring） and A0 , A1 are generators elements of finite rings with identity of order p2. Also, we get some results between the period of generalized Fibonacci sequence in the finite rings oforderp2 and characteristic of these rings.

Time Series Models for Short Term Prediction of the Incidence of Japanese Encephalitis in Xianyang City, P R China

Objective To construct a model of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average （SARIMA） for forecasting the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis （JE） in Xianyang, Shaanxi, China, and provide valuable reference information for JE control and prevention. Methods Theoretically epidemiologic study was employed in the research process. Monthly incidence data on JE for the period from Jan 2005 to Sep 2014 were obtained from a passive surveillance system at the Center for Diseases Prevention and Control in Xianyang, Shaanxi province. An optimal SARIMA model was developed for JE incidence from 2005 to 2013 with the Box and Jenkins approach. This SARIMA model could predict JE incidence for the year 2014 and 2015. Results SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 was considered to be the best model with the lowest Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, Mean Absolute Error values, the highest R2, and a lower Mean Absolute Percent Error. SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 was stationary and accurate for predicting JE incidence in Xianyang. The predicted incidence, around 0.3/100 000 from June to August in 2014 with low errors, was higher compared with the actual incidence. Therefore, SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 appeared to be reliable and accurate and could be applied to incidence prediction. Conclusions The proposed prediction model could provide clues to early identification of the JE incidence that is increased abnormally （≥0.4/100 000）. According to the predicted results in 2014, the JE incidence in Xianyang will decline slightly and reach its peak from June to August.The authors wish to thank the staff from the CDCs from 13 counties of Xianyang, Shaanxi province, China, for their contribution to Japanese encephalitis cases reporting.

Cross-Listing and Valuation Effects＂ Evidence From Nairobi Securities Exchange

The purpose of this study is to analyze the valuation effects of cross-listing. The study has conducted a univariate analysis of the Tobin＇s Q and the market-to-book ratio for the period before and after the cross-listing by using paired tests. Non-cross-listed firms are then included in multivariate regressions by using pooled Time Series Cross Section （TSCS） and Panel Corrected Standard Error （PCSE） regressions for a period of 13 years to find out if there is a difference in the valuations between cross-listed firms and non-cross-listed firms. The study＇s results indicate that the Tobin＇s Q of cross-listed-firms increases two years prior to cross-listing and that it continues to increase two years after cross-listing. The market-to-book ratios also show an increase two years prior to cross-listing and up to one year after cross-listing, then decrease in the second year after cross-listing. When non-cross-listed firms are included in the analysis, results indicate that cross-listed firms are valued higher than non-cross-listed firms. When data are portioned for positive earnings per share （EPS） and dividends, results indicate that valuation is the highest when EPS is positive. Since segmentation theories cannot be ruled out, the study＇s findings are more in support of the growth opportunity hypothesis.

Are we leveling the playing field？ Trends and disparities in sports participation among sexual minority youth in Canada

Purpose: Sports participation and physical fitness are widely beneficial for young people, yet activity levels among young people are declining.Despite growing popular media attention on the participation of sexual minority(e.g., lesbian, gay, and bisexual) youth in sports and various campaigns to improve the often homophobic climate of sports, there is limited evidence that sexual minority youth participate in sports. Our aim was to provide a current portrait of sports participation among 3 groups of sexual minority youth(e.g., lesbian, gay, and bisexual) in British Columbia, Canada, as well as to document population trends.Methods: Pooled population-level data from British Columbia, Canada(n = 99,373) were used to examine trends and disparities in sports participation among sexual minority and heterosexual youth. Age-adjusted logistic regression models were used to examine changes in participation over time and disparities in participation over time(1998—2013).Results: We found an overall decline in sports participation and physical activity(PA) for all youth. Sexual minority students were less likely to participate in formal sports(with a coach) and informal sports(without a coach) compared with their heterosexual peers. The disparity in participating in informal sports between heterosexual and sexual minority youth has narrowed over time for some sexual orientation groups, whereas the disparity in participating in formal sports has widened over time in some cases.Conclusion: This study provides a comprehensive examination of sports participation among sexual minority youth over the past 15 years.Despite changing societal attitudes and laudable efforts to reduce homophobia in sports, results suggest that there are continued barriers to participation for sexual minority youth. Further research is needed to understand the factors that limit sports participation for these youth and to inform program development. PA is critical to lifelong health and well-being, and thus continued efforts are needed to increase the sports participation of sexual minority youth in particular.

Karl Popper＇s Critical Rationalism＂ Corroboration versus Confirmation＊

This paper reviews and adds to previous arguments for the thesis that Karl Popper was mistaken to have rejected hypothetico-deductive confirmation. By turning from the positive idea of verification to the negative idea of criticism, Popper believed that he had turned his back on induction. He believed he had ＂solved＂ the ＂problem of induction＂ by providing a non-inductive account of corroboration. Popper used the term ＂corroboration＂ rather than confirmation which he believed was too closely allied to the notion of the inductive or probabilistic support that a theory can receive from evidence. Wesley Salmon＇s （1967） ＂concept of confirming evidence＂ and Clark Glymour＇s （1980） ＂bootstrap conception of evidence for theory＂ both defended respectively the thesis that passed tests can be confirmed by evidence or warranted by the degree of probability. Using a sequence of symbols in logical form or analysis, I shall further defend the concept to hypothetico-deductive confirmation in order to show that the known weaknesses of Popper＇s critical rationalism are remediable, once the notion of evidence for theories is brought back into consideration.

Parameter selection in time series prediction based on nu-support vector regression

The theory of nu-support vector regression (Nu-SVR) is employed in modeling time series variationfor prediction. In order to avoid prediction performance degradation caused by improper parameters, themethod of parallel multidimensional step search (PMSS) is proposed for users to select best parameters intraining support vector machine to get a prediction model. A series of tests are performed to evaluate themodeling mechanism and prediction results indicate that Nu-SVR models can reflect the variation tendencyof time series with low prediction error on both familiar and unfamiliar data. Statistical analysis is alsoemployed to verify the optimization performance of PMSS algorithm and comparative results indicate thattraining error can take the minimum over the interval around planar data point corresponding to selectedparameters. Moreover, the introduction of parallelization can remarkably speed up the optimizing procedure.

Moment Bounds for Strong Mixing Sequences and Their Application

Some moment inequalities for the strong mixing random variable sequence are established, and applied to discuss the asymptotic normality of the general weight function estimate for the fixed design regression model.

ON THE NONEXISTENCE OF NONTRIVIAL SMALL CYCLES OF THE μ FUNCTION IN 3x+ 1 CONJECTURE

This paper studies the property of the recursive sequences in the 3x ＋ 1 conjecture. The authors introduce the concept of μ function, with which the 3x ＋ 1 conjecture can be transformed into two other conjectures： one is eventually periodic conjecture of the μ function and the other is periodic point conjecture. The authors prove that the 3x ＋ 1 conjecture is equivalent to the two conjectures above. In 2007, J. L. Simons proved the non-existence of nontrivial 2-cycle for the T function. In this paper, the authors prove that the μ function has nol-periodic points for 2 ≤ 1 ≤12. In 2005, J. L. Simons and B. M. M de Weger proved that there is no nontrivial/-cycle for the T function for 1 ≤68, and in this paper, the authors prove that there is no nontrivial l-cycle for the μ function for 2 ≤ 1≤ 102.

Forecasting Container Throughput of Qingdao Port with a Hybrid Model

This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting method to forecast container throughput of Qingdao Port.To eliminate the influence of outliers,local outlier factor(lof) is extended to detect outliers in time series,and then different dummy variables are constructed to capture the effect of outliers based on domain knowledge.Next,a hybrid forecasting model combining projection pursuit regression(PPR) and genetic programming(GP) algorithm is proposed.Finally,the hybrid model is applied to forecasting container throughput of Qingdao Port and the results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms ANN,SARIMA,and PPR models.

HOPF ALGEBRAIC APPROACH TO THE n LINEARLY RECURSIVE SEQUENCES

It is proved that a linearly recursive sequence of n indices over field F (n≥1) is automatically a product of n linearly recursive sequences of 1-index over F by the theory of Hopf algebras.By the way, the correspondence between the set of linearly recursive sequences of 1-index and F[X]° is generalized to the case of n-index.

ANALYSIS AND COMPUTATIONAL ALGORITHM FOR QUEUES WITH STATE-DEPENDENT VACATIONS I:G/M(n)/1/K

In this paper we study a queueing system with state-dependent services and state-dependent vacations, or simply G/M（n）/1/K. Since the service rate is state-dependent, this system includes G/M/c and G/M/c/K queues with various types of station vacations as special cases. We provide a recursive algorithm using the supplementary variable technique to numerically compute the stationary queue length distribution of the system. The only input requirement is the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the interarrival distribution as well as the state-dependent service rate and state-dependent vacation rate. In a subsequent companion paper, we study its dual system M（n）/G/1/K queue with statedependent vacations.

A NEW TEST FOR NORMALITY IN LINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

A nonparametric test for normality of linear autoregressive time series is proposed in this paper.The test is based on the best one-step forecast in mean square with time reverse.Some asymptotic theory is developed for the test,and it is shown that the test is easy to use and has good powers.The empirical percentage points to conduct the test in practice are provided and three examples using real data are included.