论国家安全危机的预警路径

[研究目的]尝试复盘苏联侵捷事件,以期构建危机预警路径。[研究方法]该文梳理了苏联侵捷前的政治与军事征候,分析危机的演化过程,研判苏联意图,确定最佳预警时间。[研究结论]国家安全危机预警应综合考察政治、军事征候,尤其关注军事征候;预警并不是将各项指标简单相加以确定预警阈值,现有的赋值模型化方法无法恰当提供预警。

预警指标集构建路径研究——以印巴冲突为例

[目的/意义]预警是情报分析工作的核心与难点。有效识别征候是成功预警的前提,一组有效的指标集合又是征候识别的基本依据,征候识别的精准度、对征候价值判断的准确性均需以精确的指标为参照。所以,探究预警监控指标集的构建方法是进行正确预警的基础性工作。[方法/过程]在前人理论研究的基础上,通过综合归纳与案例演绎的方法,在明确了"指标""征候"等预警基本概念及指标来源的基础上,设计提出了指标集的构建流程,明确了指标集的构建原则。[结果/结论]通过从巴基斯坦为防御国的视角出发,以印巴冲突为例,探究预警指标集的构建路径,基本确认了预警指标集"确定指标来源、提取指标、指标效度验证"的构建流程,明确了各流程的操作方法并探讨了该构建流程的普适性作用,为预警指标集构建路径在其他预测性领域的运用、预警指标体系与智能技术的结合提供了参考和依据。

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS OF BASIC CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION DURING RAINING SEASONS IN REGIONS SOUTH OF CHANGJIANG RIVER AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SST ANOMALIES

Basic climatic characteristics are analyzed concerning the precipitation anomalies in raining seasons over regions south of the Changjiang River (the Yangtze). It finds that the regions are the earliest in eastern China where raining seasons begin and end. Precipitation there tends to decrease over the past 50 years. Waters bounded by 9(S -1(S, 121(E - 129(E are the key zones of SST anomalies that affect the precipitation in these regions over May ~ July in preceding years. Long-term air-sea interactions make it possible for preceding SST anomalies to affect the general circulation that come afterwards, causing precipitation anomalies in the raining seasons in regions south of the Changjiang River in subsequent years.

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALLS AND PASSING THROUGH LAKES IN CHINA

By using the data of 1949 – 2001 (53 years) of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yearbooks, statistical analyses are performed to study the climatic features of TCs making landfall and then passing through lakes (hereafter referred to as "L-TCs") in China. Results show that L-TCs can sustain a long time over land and the intensity is very strong during the course of landfall. Lakes can noticeably slow down the reduction of TC intensity, with the minimum pressure mostly maintained or decreased and the maximum velocity increased. The middle reach of the Yangtze River has the biggest TC dissipating rate as compared with the other areas where the TC is active.

Climate change trend and causes of tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea during the past 50 years

Tropical cyclones(TCs)in the South China Sea(SCS)cause serious disasters and loss every year to the coastal and inland areas of southern China.The types of TCs are usually difficult to forecast,and studies on the understanding of the TCs affecting the SCS are lacking.In this study,the authors use the TC data during 1965–2017 from two best-track datasets to analyse the climatic characteristics in terms of the frequency,the track activity,and the influencing indexes of the TCs affecting the SCS and investigate the possible causes.The results show that,during 1965–2017,there were 535 TCs affecting the SCS,mainly occurring from June to November of each year,with the annual average frequency exhibiting a significant downward trend.Meanwhile,the frequency of the track activity in most areas of the SCS also demonstrate a remarkable decreasing trend but an increase in the Gulf of Tonkin and the Taiwan Strait.The large-scale environmental anomalous westerlies and the decrease of humidity in the mid-and low-level over the northern part of the SCS are likely the main causes for the decrease in frequency and the track activity.In addition,the analysis using the cyclone activity index shows that the influence of the before mentioned TCs in southern China gradually decreases,while the influence of TCs in the SCS show a decreasing trend during past decades.

Analysis of the Influence of New Usages on the State of Conservation of Historical Buildings through Microclimate Characterization

Recycling is an alternative for preserving historical heritage buildings. Through such process, buildings are occupied by new usages that assure they are not abandoned. However, conservation issues, like pathological manifestations by filamentous fungi, are common even in buildings receiving new uses. Thus, it is extremely important to know the microclimate behavior of these buildings and analyze if there are usages that favor the appearance of filamentous fungi or not. This study aims to verify if new usages modify the microclimate in historical buildings and if such possible change favors the appearance of pathological manifestations by filamentous fimgi in some specific use. To achieve the results, three buildings that have gone through recycling processes were chosen in the city of Pelotas, in Southernmost Brazil. The city possesses a large number of buildings with historical value and its climate conditions are propitious for appearance of filamentous fungi. For 12 months, microclimate was monitored, the environments modus operandi was characterized and there was a survey on the pathological manifestations by filamentous fungi in the three buildings with two different uses： administration offices and exhibition rooms. Conclusion was that usages that allow natural ventilation and lighting favor conservation, which is what happens in the ones used as administration offices. Besides that, it was noticed that the construction system also influences, since buildings with a high cellar that is being used did not present filamentous fungi, which also shows the influence of ascending humidity on the appearance of such pathological manifestations.