水利枢纽工程直接影响天然河川径流情势和水生生物环境。只有兼顾人类需求和自然生态需求的水利枢纽工程才具有可持续性。以拉萨河上游旁多水利枢纽工程为例,利用变化范围法(Range of Variability Approach,RVA)和2014-2020年逐日入库...水利枢纽工程直接影响天然河川径流情势和水生生物环境。只有兼顾人类需求和自然生态需求的水利枢纽工程才具有可持续性。以拉萨河上游旁多水利枢纽工程为例,利用变化范围法(Range of Variability Approach,RVA)和2014-2020年逐日入库天然流量、调节后的出库流量和库水位等数据,综合分析旁多水利枢纽对拉萨河径流情势的影响,定量评价径流情势各指标及整体改变程度;并结合向量统计的方法完整地展示了年极端径流时间分布特征,合理评价了水库调节对年极端流量发生时间的影响。结果表明:旁多水利枢纽工程对拉萨河径流情势影响较大,特别是对冬春季极端低流量具有持续影响;其中1月、3月、5月平均流量、年最小1天流量、年最小连续30天流量、年最小1天流量发生时间改变度为100%;水利枢纽运行期间径流情势整体改变度为62.21%,属于中度改变。虽然旁多水利枢纽对拉萨河的调节满足了农业和城镇供水需求,有利于社会和经济发展,但径流情势的中度改变,尤其是对低流量的高度改变,将对拉萨河的整个河流生态系统造成不利影响。通过对旁多水利枢纽的运行提出实时评估,指出目前水库调节存在的问题,提出水库调节应统筹兼顾社会和生态需求,为合理调度拉萨河流域水资源提供参考。展开更多
Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 ...Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.展开更多
文摘水利枢纽工程直接影响天然河川径流情势和水生生物环境。只有兼顾人类需求和自然生态需求的水利枢纽工程才具有可持续性。以拉萨河上游旁多水利枢纽工程为例,利用变化范围法(Range of Variability Approach,RVA)和2014-2020年逐日入库天然流量、调节后的出库流量和库水位等数据,综合分析旁多水利枢纽对拉萨河径流情势的影响,定量评价径流情势各指标及整体改变程度;并结合向量统计的方法完整地展示了年极端径流时间分布特征,合理评价了水库调节对年极端流量发生时间的影响。结果表明:旁多水利枢纽工程对拉萨河径流情势影响较大,特别是对冬春季极端低流量具有持续影响;其中1月、3月、5月平均流量、年最小1天流量、年最小连续30天流量、年最小1天流量发生时间改变度为100%;水利枢纽运行期间径流情势整体改变度为62.21%,属于中度改变。虽然旁多水利枢纽对拉萨河的调节满足了农业和城镇供水需求,有利于社会和经济发展,但径流情势的中度改变,尤其是对低流量的高度改变,将对拉萨河的整个河流生态系统造成不利影响。通过对旁多水利枢纽的运行提出实时评估,指出目前水库调节存在的问题,提出水库调节应统筹兼顾社会和生态需求,为合理调度拉萨河流域水资源提供参考。
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40830535, 41001110, 41101092, 41171092)National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2010CB951304)the CAS/SAFEA (Chinese Academy of Sciences/State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs) International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams, Eleventh Five-Year' Key Technological Projects of Heilongjiang Province Farm Bureau (No. HNK10A-10-01, HNK10A-10-03)
文摘Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.
