重要化工企业遭遇恐怖袭击的风险评价

对重要化工企业遭遇恐怖袭击的风险水平进行量化,对于防治恐怖袭击灾害和保障公共安全是十分必要的。从恐怖袭击事件的突发性和不确定性以及历史数据不完整的实际情况出发,用恐怖袭击风险来描述事件的发生具有可行性。首先,从恐怖分子和反恐机关两个角度分析恐怖袭击的影响因素,建立重要化工企业遭遇恐怖袭击的风险评价指标体系与风险评价模型。然后利用公式赋权法对各个指标进行赋权。最后,结合后果损失评价结果,对重要化工企业遭遇恐怖袭击的风险进行综合评价。

大城市的恐怖主义袭击风险识别与建模

大城市是人口、信息、资源的聚集地,汇聚了大量具有重要影响或高度象征意义的风险目标,是恐怖主义袭击的重点。对大城市的恐怖主义袭击风险进行识别与建模研究,对提高大城市的应急管理能力具有重要作用。采用定性与定量相结合的方法、案例分析法来分析大城市中恐怖袭击风险因素,其风险因素主要有三大类:基础设施风险、地理位置风险、国家安全风险等。在此基础上,构建了大城市恐怖袭击风险因素的模型,研究其整体联动效应,系统理解大城市在遭受恐怖袭击后,各个风险点的连接关系。研究发现,大城市的潜在风险因素较多,各风险因素之间具有联动性、脆弱性,此研究对防范化解重大恐怖袭击风险隐患,为应急管理方提供辅助决策具有一定的理论与现实意义。

Trade Isolation Effect of Terrorism Risks along the"Belt and Road"Route

Rising terrorism risks are a major obstacle for Belt and Road countries to integrate into the global trade network. Based on the cross-country panel data of the now 66 Belt and Road countries during 2000-2013, this paper carries out an empirical study on the trade isolation effect of terrorism risks with the following findings: Rising terrorism risks will indeed give rise to a significant "trade isolation effect" with greater negative impact on a country's export than on import. After taking into account the endogeneity of the variable of terrorism risks and heterogeneous casualties of terrorist attacks, this conclusion remains robust. In addition, the trade isolation effect of terrorism risks is also characterized by heterogeneous targets under attack, i.e. the degree of trade isolation effect is positively correlated with the randomness of targets under terrorist attacks.