浅谈成本预测的方法

成本预测是企业经营管理中的一项重要工作。本文就成本预测的重要性、怎样进行成水预测及成本预测的方法谈谈自己粗浅的看法。 一、成本预测的重要性 成本预测分析是成本分析中不可缺少的重要组成部分,它对于保证成本计划的实现,改善企业的经营管理,调动广大职工的生产积极性。都具有十分重要的现实意义。 成本预测的工作是成本管理的重要内容,是做好决策的基础工作,因此,我们必须做好这项工作。

武器装备寿命周期费用估算方法研究

概述了我国当前武器装备寿命周期费用估算常用方法的特点、适用范围,尤其是参数估算法建模过程中应用的各种理论与技术,包括回归分析法及其改进、神经网络、灰色系统及支持向量机等。这些常用方法使用上的相同难点之一是依赖于武器装备已发生的实际费用数据。相应地,文中重点分析了处于起步研究阶段的较新预测方法——成本预测法的内涵及其特点。

现代企业目标成本管理应用探讨

目标成本是一种预计成本，是指产品、劳务、项目等在其生产经营活动开始前，根据预定的目标所预先制定的成本。这种预计成本与目标管理方法结合起来，就称为目标成本。

Influences of misprediction costs on solar flare prediction

The mispredictive costs of flaring and non-flaring samples are different for different applications of solar flare prediction.Hence,solar flare prediction is considered a cost sensitive problem.A cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is built by modifying the basic decision tree algorithm.Inconsistency rate with the exhaustive search strategy is used to determine the optimal combination of magnetic field parameters in an active region.These selected parameters are applied as the inputs of the solar flare prediction model.The performance of the cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is evaluated for the different thresholds of solar flares.It is found that more flaring samples are correctly predicted and more non-flaring samples are wrongly predicted with the increase of the cost for wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples,and the larger cost of wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples is required for the higher threshold of solar flares.This can be considered as the guide line for choosing proper cost to meet the requirements in different applications.