Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was fo...Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was found in the technical literature, methods and tools capable of measuring the exposure value by means of indicators. In the study, the highlights were 12 methods of qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative risk analysis, representing an overview of risk analysis methods available in the literature with potential use in dams, that it has been done into electronic spreadsheets. The case study is performed on a sample of concrete dam and earth/rockfill built and operated by Eletrobr^s Furnas Company, supported by documentary research, projects, field inspections and interviews with experts. After applying the methods and the analysis thereof, has been prepared the Eletrobras Fumas dam risk analysis method which is characterized by adapting the criteria analyzed to the reality of the company＇s dams and it was also performed the portfolio risk analysis of 18 dams. In spite of the variety and subjectivity of qualitative and semiquantitative methods, the results show that they tend to converge on the analysis of dam based on risk. The application methodology demonstrates the feasibility assessment stage, covering the preliminary analysis for portfolio dams, followed by formal and individual risk analyzes for the most critical structures. These results confirm the applicability of risk analysis techniques, contributing to the consolidation of this toot as fundamental in the dam safety.展开更多
A creative solution to financial gap in Indonesian infrastructure development is the Public Private Partnership （PPP） scheme. One of the constraints in PPP implementation in toll road infrastructure is the lack of i...A creative solution to financial gap in Indonesian infrastructure development is the Public Private Partnership （PPP） scheme. One of the constraints in PPP implementation in toll road infrastructure is the lack of interest from the private sector, which are caused by the uncertainties defined as risks surrounding the project. This urges the importance of risk analysis on project investment to describe the measurement of risk allocated to the private sector. This paper aims at measuring the risks impacts on the project viability using Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan （Cisumdawu） Toll Road section as the case and finding some creative way out. By employing Monte Carlo risk analysis technique we are able to measure the risk impact perceived by the private sector through probability distribution of the project NPV and IRR. Based on the result of Monte Carlo analysis on the Cisumdawu toll road, the overall risk impact perceived by the private sector is too much to bear. The risks considered as high-impact are risks on land acquisition, risks on construction, risks on toll revenue, risks on interest rates and disaster risks on post construction phase. The result shows the importance of decreasing the risk level on the mentioned risk that can be done through the increased participation of local government in managing the toll road projects. A creative solution again is needed to strike balance between the interest of private sector and that of public sector to deal with risks.展开更多
文摘Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was found in the technical literature, methods and tools capable of measuring the exposure value by means of indicators. In the study, the highlights were 12 methods of qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative risk analysis, representing an overview of risk analysis methods available in the literature with potential use in dams, that it has been done into electronic spreadsheets. The case study is performed on a sample of concrete dam and earth/rockfill built and operated by Eletrobr^s Furnas Company, supported by documentary research, projects, field inspections and interviews with experts. After applying the methods and the analysis thereof, has been prepared the Eletrobras Fumas dam risk analysis method which is characterized by adapting the criteria analyzed to the reality of the company＇s dams and it was also performed the portfolio risk analysis of 18 dams. In spite of the variety and subjectivity of qualitative and semiquantitative methods, the results show that they tend to converge on the analysis of dam based on risk. The application methodology demonstrates the feasibility assessment stage, covering the preliminary analysis for portfolio dams, followed by formal and individual risk analyzes for the most critical structures. These results confirm the applicability of risk analysis techniques, contributing to the consolidation of this toot as fundamental in the dam safety.
文摘A creative solution to financial gap in Indonesian infrastructure development is the Public Private Partnership （PPP） scheme. One of the constraints in PPP implementation in toll road infrastructure is the lack of interest from the private sector, which are caused by the uncertainties defined as risks surrounding the project. This urges the importance of risk analysis on project investment to describe the measurement of risk allocated to the private sector. This paper aims at measuring the risks impacts on the project viability using Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan （Cisumdawu） Toll Road section as the case and finding some creative way out. By employing Monte Carlo risk analysis technique we are able to measure the risk impact perceived by the private sector through probability distribution of the project NPV and IRR. Based on the result of Monte Carlo analysis on the Cisumdawu toll road, the overall risk impact perceived by the private sector is too much to bear. The risks considered as high-impact are risks on land acquisition, risks on construction, risks on toll revenue, risks on interest rates and disaster risks on post construction phase. The result shows the importance of decreasing the risk level on the mentioned risk that can be done through the increased participation of local government in managing the toll road projects. A creative solution again is needed to strike balance between the interest of private sector and that of public sector to deal with risks.
