中国投入产出序列表外推方法研究

This paper compared the estimating precision and applicability for extrapolating China’s Input-Output tables series based on Kuroda and RAS approach,respectively.The statistic results showed that Kuroda approach was slightly prior to RAS methlod and both estimates had large errorsin the case that time periods were longer than five years,which ascrbed to significant continued changes in China’s industry structure.However,the modified Kuroela approach will be applicable for updating Input-Output tables of China.

中国投人产出可比序列表构建及全行业潜在产出水平估计

本研究首先基于中国现有数张投入产出基本表和延长表,对不同的口径和编制方法进行了调整,构建了中国1981年至2005年可比价投入产出序列表。然后在这25张投入产出表提供的行业层面历史可比数据的基础上,应用Hodrick-Prescott滤波、多变量不可观测成分模型以及结构化向量自回归模型估计了中国33个国民经济部门改革开放以来的全行业潜在产出水平,给出了各行业消除价格和需求波动等短期因素后的实际增长质量和效率的客观评价,并据此进行了时间维度的垂直比较和行业纬度的水平比较,划分了三个重要的增长阶段,辨别了几组不同的行业增长模式。