城市劳动力资源约束下第三产业发展研究——以北京为例

随着城市规模的不断扩大,特大城市人口资源承载力不断受到挑战。以依靠增加劳动力实现经济增长的传统发展模式已经成为城市发展的瓶颈。笔者以北京为例分析了第三产业各行业目前的劳动生产率水平,并运用投入产出模型进一步分析各行业间的关联度及相互影响。根据综合考量发现,北京的信息传输、计算机服务和软件业、科学研究事业、文化、体育和娱乐业单位劳动力产出较高,更适合在需要控制劳动力数量的大城市发展。同时,对于耗费劳动力资源比较严重的交通运输、仓储和邮政业,提高劳动生产率已经迫在眉睫。

SOLVABILITY RESULTS OF A CONDITIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT EQUATION BASED ON A TYPE OF NONLINEAR LEONTIEF MODEL

A class of nonlinear and continuous type Leontief model and its corresponding conditional input-output equation are introduced, and two basic problems under the so called positive or negative boundary assumption are presented. By approaches of nonlinear analysis some solvability results of this equation and continuous perturbation properties of the relative solution sets are obtained, and some economic significance are illustrated by the remark.

Sensitivity of Chinese Industrial Wastewater Discharge Reduction to Direct Input Coefficients in an Input-output Context

Industrial wastewater discharge in China is increasing with the country′s economic development and it is worthy of concern. The discharge is primarily relevant to the direct discharge coefficient of each sector of the economy, its direct input coefficient and the final demand in input-output models. In this study, we calculated the sensitivity of the reduction in the Chinese industrial wastewater discharge using the direct input coefficients based on the theory of error-transmission in an input-output framework. Using input-output models, we calculated the direct and total industrial wastewater discharge coefficients. Analysis of 2007 input-output data of 30 sectors of the Chinese economy and of 30 provincial regions of China indicates that by lowering their direct input coefficients, the manufacturers of textiles, paper and paper products, chemical products, smelting and metal pressing, telecommunication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment will significantly reduce their amounts of industrial wastewater discharge. By lowering intra-provincial direct input coefficients to industrial sectors themselves of Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang, there will be a significant reduction in industrial wastewater discharge for the country as a whole. Investment in production technology and improvement in organizational efficiency in these sectors and in these provinces can help lessen the direct input coefficients, thereby effectively achieving a reduction in industrial wastewater discharge in China via industrial restructuring.

Empirically Analysis of the CO_2 Emissions Embodied in Exports of China

In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons.The research results of this paper are as follows:Since China's entry into WTO,the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly;the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China's total exports value because China's carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage.Additionally,this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.

China's Position in Global Value Chains Compared with the EU,U.S.and Japan

By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three economies for different sectors using real domestic trade in value-added and GVC position indices. In addition, valueadded trade is taken into consideration to identify the labor division characteristics of the four economies in the GVC, which led to the following findings: China participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the downstream yet shows a significant tendency to move upstream in technology-intensive sectors; Japan participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the upstream and boasts an advantage in technology-intensive sectors; the US participates in the multiple links of the GVC at the upstream with superiority in hightechnology sectors; the EU participates in the production and export of intermediate goods and final goods at both ends.

Re-measuring Status of China＇s High-Tech Industries in International Division of Labor： Applying a Non-Competitive Input-Output Model

Based on a refined ＂non-competitive input-output model,＂ this paper proposes a new framework for analyzing the status of a country＇s high-tech industries in the international division of labor, i.e. calculates the index of＂ weighted value-added productivity ＂ by compiling non-competitive input-output tables which distinguish high-tech industries from traditional industries. The new method effectively avoids ＂statistical illusion＂ which stems from a biased focus on gross exports under intra-product specialization. The empirical study shows that since 1995, the status of China＇s high-tech industries has grown quickly as a result of enhanced labor productivity, but still lags behind those of major developed countries. In addition, the study also suggests that the status of China＇s high-tech industries has been over-estimated using the traditional gross export statistical method.

Ecological footprint of Gansu Province,China between 1997 and 2002:changes and inducement

The calculation of Ecological Footprint （EF） on the basis of Input-Output model （I-O model） was advanced by Bicknell, and modified and improved hy Ferng who corrected the footprint＇s aggregation to each sectors. For the lack of sufficient teehnique to deal with the trade between the research areas and the rest of the world, it it necessary to improve this method. And a dynamic analysis of the change of footprint based on I-O model, which could explore the factor impacting the footprint using the ,special advantage of I-O model, ought to be put into practice. After introducing the new method in detail, we calculate and compare the EF and the change of Gansu Province in the northwest of China in 1997 and 2002. The result shows that there was an increase of EF in 2002 caused by final domestic demand. Further; the inerement in EF export was 2.0 × 10^5 ha and 1.6 × 10^6 ha in import. The out-of- region support dropped from 22.6% to 18. 6%. We introduce three factors causing the EF change based on the character of I-O model： the productivity of the resourve which is explained by the change of resource used to obtain one unit output in a sector, the improvement of the economics and the final demand. Finally, we find that the effects of the three factors on the EF change are not identical except the industry sectors and the change of factors in the agriculture and the industry sectors works notably.

Input-Output Analysis of the Impact of Environmental Regulation on Chinese Industries

In this paper, we attempted to calculate the impact of environmental regulation on the international competitiveness of China＇s industries. Calculations are based on the input-output model that incorporates pollution control costs. We took enterprises ＇pollution control costs as the substitute variable for environmental regulation and price changes to measure the impact on international competitiveness for all sectors. Our studies reported three findings. First, price rises caused by pollution control costs were not more than 4 per cent in the manufacturing and trade sectors in 2007. Second, although the charging rate on pollutant discharge has become increasingly higher since 2003, the resultant price rise is only around O. 5 per cent across all sectors. Third, the impact brought about by increasingly stronger environmental regulation is limited and the resultant price rise does not exceed 2 per cent. Thesefindings indicate that the impact of environmental regulation on China＇s trade sectors is affordable. Therefore, it is needless to worry that environmental regulation will weaken the international competitiveness of Chinese products.

Principal Features of Building Social Accounts Matrix and Improving Statistical Database for Eco-countries

With common borders of the population, total area, and GDP （PPP-based） of Economic Cooperation Organization （ECO） member states are estimated as 416 million persons, 7.9 million m2, and US$2.7 trillion respectively （2010 data）. Although heterogeneous in the extent, there is economic development, overall, with serious energy and transport-transit relations among countries that is reflected in growing trade turnover year-by-year. However, there are still rather unused resources and capacity in such areas of cooperation among countries as exchange of energy, transport services, agricultural and industrial goods, use of opportunities for tourism, promoting investment and innovation processes and other areas. Certainly, maximum and optimal use of these resources calls for availability of analytical means capable of accounting for relations both within member states and among them. The implementation of computable general equilibrium （CGE） modeling in each member state would thus be of great significance in resolution of these problems both in terms of accounting for input-output linkages within the countries as well as enabling impact of main trading partners and goods and services among countries. The analysis carried out indicates that there are a number of problems in application of CGE model in most of the member states. As such, input-output tables are not compiled in some countries, while in others despite the fact that these tables are compiled, there are no attempts to build the model, yet in other countries, even if the CGE model is implemented, there are difficulties in taking into account the real results in the face of serious problems related to improving national accounts system database. Summarizing these problems, it is possible to conclude that to ensure the application of a CGE model,there is a great need to work out procedures of compilation of a social accounts matrix （SAM） that lies on the basis of this model, for which the relevant statistics of a member state must be improved. Considering the above-mentioned, the presented research, makes procedures and proposals on compilation of SAM, improves statistical data for researching the extent of application of CGE Model in ECO member states, and identifies the degree of availability and organization of relevant data to develop input-output tables and respective SAM.

Allocation of Inter-Industry Environmental Responsibilities Based on Economic Benefits： Principles and Indicators

Rational inter-industry allocation of environmental responsibilities has great significance to instituting effective policies on industrial environment and transforming the pattern of economic development. From the perspective of economic benefit and industrial linkage, this paper discusses the issue of inter-industry allocation of environmental responsibilities. Based on input-output model and three responsibility principles （producer responsibility, consumer responsibility and shared responsibility）, this paper develops seven industrial environmental responsibility indicators and conducts an empirical analysis on the S02 emission responsibilities at China＇s industry level. Results indicate that all these indicators can avoid the double calculation of environmental responsibilities and results using different indicators have significant differences. Some industries such as power, heat production and supply may have little difference of the relative ranking of environmental responsibility under different indicators, but the magnitude of specific assumed responsibilities may have significant changes. Environmental responsibilities of some other industries （such as construction） may seem not important under certain indicators but can be among the most significant under some other indicators. More importantly, despite close connections between these indicators, they reflect different mechanisms of environmental responsibility allocation and have totally different policy significance.

The Net Flow of Carbon Emissions Embodied in Trade of China

Based on the most current GTAP8 database, we analyzed flow, structure and change in trade- embodied carbon emissions between China and the developed world and the developing world from 2004 to 2007 using input-output model. We found that China was always a net embodied emissions exporting country over this period. Based on the LMDI decomposition method, we found that factors influencing net embodied emissions exported from China to developed countries and developing countries differ. Trade surpluses and differences in emissions factors were vital in determining net embodied emissions exported from China to the developed world. Differences in export structures and emissions factors were key factors influencing net emissions between China and developing countries. These were closely related to respective divisions amongst developed countries, China and other developing countries in the global industrial chain. From 2004 to 2007, the export structure of China was transformed to high-end manufacturing with domestic producing technology gradually approaching the level of developed countries. With further technological improvement, industrial upgrades and export structure optimization in China, the net export of embodied carbon emissions will decrease and the driving forces of trade for China＇s domestic carbon emissions will decline.

对旅游业几个重要问题的经济学分析

近年来国务院一系列重要文件出台,使得国内旅游发展热潮空前高涨,旅游业存在几个误区被忽视,甚至不当利用的风险有所增加。据此,从相应经济学原理内核出发,对三方面的误区进行了论证澄清旅游,认为旅游总收入与旅游业GDP内涵上大相径庭,旅游业带动力系数并不十分明显,以及旅游消费的完全经济影响建模不适以乘数效应恒为1的投入产出开发模型来实证测算。

OPTIMIZING CHINA'S EXPORT STRUCTURE COMBINING GOAL PROGRAMMING AND NON-COMPETITIVE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

supported by the Taishan Scholar Construction Engineering by Shandong Government the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.61120106011 and 61203029

Input-occupancy-output models of the non-competitive type and their application - an examination of the China-US trade surplus

In this paper we construct an extended non-competitive input-occupancy-output model that captures China＇s processing trade and also develop a methodology to estimate the domestic value-added and employment generated by each unit of total exports, of exports by sector, and of exports by commodity, respectively. We also prove mathematically that the gross value of exports is equal to the sum of total value added and total imports. Based on the methodology proposed here, we compile the 2002 extended Chinese non-competitive input-occupancy-output table and the United States non-competitive input-occupancy- output table, and then estimate and analyze the effects of China＇s exports and US exports on their respective domestic value added and employment.

Industrial structure optimization in central China under the energy constraint

Optimizing industrial structure is an important research object of human-economic geography, and it is also the object of government departments to strengthen macro-control. This has become even greater problem that China has entered the "new normal" in recent years. The study uses a multi-regional input-output model, with linear programming to build an optimal model of industrial structure as well as a model of optimization degree under the energy constraint. The results of the study revealed that:(1) the degree of optimization of industrial structure in Anhui Province is optimal(0.763), while that of Shanxi Province is the lowest(0.662);(2) the degree of optimization of industrial structure is negatively related to energy consumption per unit output value and the proportion of heavy industry; and(3) overall, central China should maintain or moderately increase the proportions of resource-based industry, greatly increase the proportions of manufacturing, including transport and telecommunications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment, and moderately reduce the proportions of smelting and pressing of metals and non-metal mineral products. In terms of service industries, the region should greatly increase the proportions of the production and supply of natural gas and tap water, moderately reduce or maintain the proportions of transport and storage as well as tourism, and maintain or moderately reduce the proportions of wholesale trade, retail trade and catering services.

A MULTIYEAR LAGS INPUT-HOLDING-OUTPUT MODEL ON EDUCATION WITH EXCLUDING IDLE CAPITAL

This paper develops a multi-year lag Input-Holding-Output （I-H-O） Model on education with exclusion of the idle capital to address the reasonable education structure in support of a sustainable development strategy in China. First, the model considers the multiyear lag of human capital because the lag time of human capital is even longer and more important than that of fixed capital. Second, it considers the idle capital resulting from the output decline in education, for example, student decrease in primary school. The new generalized Leonitief dynamic inverse is deduced to obtain a positive solution on education when output declines as well as expands. After compiling the 2000 I-H-O table on education, the authors adopt modifications-by-step method to treat nonlinear coefficients, and calculate education scale, the requirement of human 2020. It is found that structural imbalance of human development. capital, and education expenditure from 2005 to capital is a serious problem for Chinese economic

Robust linear optimization under matrix completion

Linear programming models have been widely used in input-output analysis for analyzing the interdependence of industries in economics and in environmental science.In these applications,some of the entries of the coefficient matrix cannot be measured physically or there exists sampling errors.However,the coefficient matrix can often be low-rank.We characterize the robust counterpart of these types of linear programming problems with uncertainty set described by the nuclear norm.Simulations for the input-output analysis show that the new paradigm can be helpful.