0-1规划在投资决策中的应用

将0-1规划原理运用到产业项目投资决策过程中,能较好解决多项目取舍问题。0-1规划模型 不仅能从静态的角度分析各项目对资源的占用情况,还能结合实际情况,考虑随时间变化,各项目对资源的占用, 合理分配企业资源。

管理者,请慎用投资报酬率

投资报酬率(return on investment,ROI)是现代企业用来考核其投资中心最常见、最基本、也是最重要的业绩评价指标,它是部门边际献除以该部分所拥有的资产额.

关于发布《证券投资基金管理公司治理准则(试行)》的通知

2006年6月15日证监基金字[2006]122号各基金管理公司:为推动基金管理公司完善公司治理,规范经营运作,保护基金份额持有人。

基金管理公司投资管理人员管理指导意见

中国证券监督管理委员会公告[2009]3号为进一步提高基金管理公司投资管理人员的合规意识,规范投资管理人员执业行为,防范利益冲突和道德风险,完善公司内部控制,我会对《基金管理公司投资管理人员管理指导意见》(证监基金字[2006]226号)进行了修订,现将修订后的《基金管理公司投资管理人员管理指导意见》予以公告,自2009年4月1日起施行。

关于审计整改情况的报告

上海市人民代表大会常务委员会:现就2012年度本级预算执行和其他财政收支审计查出问题的整改情况,向市人大常委会报告如下:今年7月25日,市十四届人大常委会第五次会议听取了市政府《关于2012年度市本级预算执行和其他财政收支的审计工作报告》,7月26日进行了分组审议,并就落实审计查出问题的整改提出了审议意见。

IT Project Evaluation and Investment Decision

There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.

Estimation of the Economic Value of Irrigation Water in Jordan

Insight into the different values of water is essential to support rational decision making about policies, management and investments in the water sector. The main objective of this paper is to estimate an economic value of irrigation water in Jordan by choosing appropriate methodology fit with available data. The Residual Imputation Method （RIM） is used to determine the average economic value of irrigation water used in agriculture across crops. The results showed that the weighted average of water value used in field crops is JD 0.44 m＂3 and JD 1.23 m3 for vegetable crops and JD 0.23 m3 for fruit trees. The overall weighted average water value in irrigation is estimated with JD 0.51 m＂3. With regard to individual crops, cucumbers had the highest water values with about JD 6.05 m3, followed by string beans with JD 2.64 m3, and sweet pepper with JD 2.54 m3. The lowest returns per m3 were provided by squash, radish and hot pepper. For fruit tress banana has the highest water value JD 0.79 m3 and olive tress has the lowest with only JD 0.069 m3. The current practice of some banana producers is economically rational by installing Reverse Osmosis unit to irrigate banana, since water value is twice the desalination costs of one cubic meter. The estimated values represent the maximum price that farmers might be willing to pay for water under the current market conditions. Water subsidy distorts farmers＇ perception of water as a scarce and thus valuable resource. Low water prices are thus likely to engender excessive use. It is necessary to allow water prices to recover the real cost of water supply and to ensure financial sustainability of water utilities.

Probabilistic Evaluation for Commercial Real Estate Investments

Throughout the decision-making process, prudent investors must address questions regarding the probabilities of future profit gain. In this study, the probability-based discounted cash flow （DCF） method with net present value （NPV） as the indicator was adopted as an analysis tool. A probabilistic framework for measuring exceeding probability of annual rate of return on a commercial real estate investment under a specified holding period was developed. Based on the framework, the relation curves of annual rate of return versus the corresponding exceeding probability of return for available financing schemes were constructed. These curves were used as a tool to prioritize the schemes and inform decision-making. An example case is presented to demonstrate the decision-making process developed in this study. Through the proposed process, investors are given basic information on the return, probability that profit gain will occur, and feasibility of financial schemes for commercial real estate investments.

An Investment Decision Support System for Process Industries

Most studies on investment evaluation mainly focus on enterprise economic benefits only, without process operability and sustainability considered. In this paper, we suggest that investment evaluation in process industries should be executed under three strategic objectives--enterprise benefits, social benefits and customer benefits. A systematic investment evaluation and decision-making method with a four-step procedure based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to evaluate various qualitative and quantitative elements with various criteria. At the first step, the decision hierarchy is constructed under the three strategic objectives. Second, pair-wise comparison is utilized to evaluate the weights of elements and criteria. Third, qualitative elements are quantified by pair-wise comparison and quantitative elements are re-scaled by a uniform criterion. At the last, the best choice is made through synthesizing values upward in the hierarchy. An investment decision support system (DSS) is developed based on Microsoft Excel, and applied to a retrofit investment of united fluid catalytic cracking(FCC) and liquefied gas separation process in a refinery plant.

R & D project's investment evaluation based on real option and its value at risk

The authors looked upon it as real options and applied the VaR(Value at Risk) method to the evaluation of its risk value based on the analysis of R & D project investment characteristics,and advanced the evaluation model of the project’s return and risk according to financial theories.This paper expounded the two dimension evaluation model of project,and divided it into five decision making regions.

The application of option pricing theory to the evaluation of mining investment

A rational evaluation on an investment project forms the basis of a right investment decision making. The discounted cash flow (DCF for short) method is usually used as a traditional evaluation method for a project investment. However, as the mining investment is influenced by many uncertainties, DCF method cannot take into account these uncertainties and often underestimates the value of an investment project. Based on the option pricing theory of the modern financial assets, the characteristics of a real project investment are discussed, and the management option of mine managers and its pricing method are described.

Option Strike Price and Managerial Investment Decisions

The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, and that the correct value, or interval of values, of managerial stock option strike price can bring stockholder and manager interests in agreement.

Evolutionary Finance： The Case of TEDPIX Tracker Fund Selection

Optimal allocation of financial resources is a critical factor in investment decisions. A proper action in this regard requires the existence of appropriate bases and investing tools and techniques in the capital market. One of these effective methods which is considered as the basis of new investment strategies, in addition to multiple unique features, is called index tracking. By considering the undeniable role of this approach in the future of capital markets, its investigation and implementation have been considered in this research and so the problem of optimal Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index （TEDPIX） tracker fund selection is studied using a hybrid approach of genetic algorithm and quadratic programming. Neural network was applied to simulate unavailable data. Results illustrate the exactness and acceptable performance of the formed portfolios in several iterations such that achieving similar and even better performance compared to the index is a distinctive characteristic of the proposed algorithm.

Is the Time Right for a Change in Company Reporting？ Development of Company Reporting from Financial to Non-financial Information

Published financial statements and information on company performance include in the past only financial information and neglected non-financials. Investments decisions nowadays rely not only on pure financial information. The last developments of accounting rules and regulations and the current practice in company reporting put non-financial information and other decision useful non-GAAP measures in focus. A higher number of non-financial information could be found in actual company reports compared to prior years and document a shift in the reporting culture from disclosing only financial performance to an integrated reporting that also reports about performance of the total organisation and the contribution to society. Today, an integrated reporting that combines financials with non-financials and as the standard report of companies is not achieved. One step to an integrated reporting is the EU Accounts Modernisation Directive 2003/51/EC which integrated non-financial key performance indicators （KPIs） in the obligatory reporting for companies. Another step that fosters the development of companies reporting is rooted on the EU Directive 2014/95/EU （CSR directive）. The directive includes rules to make non-financial information obligatory and more harmonized in published company reports. The disclosing of non-financial information, like sustainability and social responsibility, is now obligatory, harmonized and regulated in the EU.

An Investment Portfolio Management Using Software Agents that Rely on Fuzzy Logic and with Different Decision Arguments Combinations

During the development of the intellectual multi-agent investment management information system （designed for the formation of investor＇s investment decisions）, it was established that there is a lack of both necessary comprehensive researches and analysis to invoke more than one decision-making aspect （argument） for the making of investment decision, and recommendations to combine these diverse parameters. It is possible to find a lot of articles and researches in which investment decisions or investment tactics are decided on the ground of either technical or fundamental analysis, or modeling and on the ground of intellectual calculating technique （for example, fuzzy logic, neural net, genetic programming）, whereas the issues of the coordination of different techniques are not decided at all. To fill this niche, the article offers the decision applied in multi-agent investment management information system which allows to provide rationale for investment decision taking into account four aspects （arguments）, i.e., to form the recommendation to purchase/hold/sell a security paper having evaluated the following four aspects （arguments）： （a） fundamental analysis, （b） technical analysis, （c） experts and analysts＇ recommendations and （d） risk assessment. These aspects （arguments） are chosen taking into account the real most commonly occurring process of investor＇s investment decision-making. The article gives the implementation of aspects （arguments） assessment by four corresponding software agents whose decisions are implemented with a help of fuzzy logic. Besides, the article offers the technique of the unification of these aspects （arguments）. The offered intellectual multi-agent investment management information system can be tested on the internet： www.sprendimutechnologijos.lt/webapp （MADSYS project）.

A Study on the Reconstruction of Audit Reporting Model of Risk-Oriented Auditing During Post-Financial Crisis Era

The audit profession field is the dominant force to push forward every revision of audit reporting model during many significant revisions before the beginning of the 21 st century, and they have a prominent tendency to protect auditing industry instead of a response to the users＇ information demand for investment decision. Traditional audit reporting model cannot satisfy the need of modem auditing, and it is essential to reconstruct current audit reporting model of modem risk-oriented auditing （MRA） during the post-financial crisis era, because it lacks communication value, valuable information, and effective alert information. The study provides the main contents about the reconstruction plan of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board （PCAOB）： auditor＇s discussion and analysis （AD＆A）, required and expanded use of emphasis paragraphs in the auditor＇s report, auditor assurance on other information outside the financial statements, and clarification of language in the standard auditor＇s report. Then, the study discusses the effects of the reconstruction of audit reporting model on different stakeholders of audit including the auditors, the investors, the regulators, and the researchers.

Behavioral Finance Theory and Its Application in Investment Decision

Behavioral finance theory is constantly relaxing or even abandons traditional financial theory rational man assumptions and the efficient market hypothesis, based on the decision-making process to the actual person＇s psychological characteristics as variables studied financial market vision, such as asset pricing and portfolio a series of questions theoretical system. In this paper, from home and abroad on behavioral finance theory, based on the current situation in our country from the company＇s investment policy analysis behavioral finance theory in corporate finance in the application, in order for some of our corporate decision makers to provide a non-decision against the company fully rational and non-efficient market investment strategy.

Determination of Optimal Cash Position of Mutual Fund

Cash position, held by mutual fund with purpose to satisfy investors′ redemption, will inevitably generate certain amount of cost. In this paper, the total cost caused by cash position is divided into opportunity cost and shortage cost, and a model is constructed to describe the relationship between total cost and cash position along with investors′ purchase and redemption, from which the formula of optimal cash position is deduced. Finally, the adjustment of optimal cash position in different market situations is discussed.

Credit Risk （Based on Analysis of Financial Statements） as the Decisive Factor Influencing the Risk of Investors

Banks as the key subjects in the financing of investment have a strong influence on the risk of investors. Hence, the solvency of the bank is of crucial importance for the risk management in the investment process. Given the fact of underdevelopment of financial markets and the lack of trading activities in securities, it is evident that the investments of banks in the developing countries mostly include lending investments. Looking at the key categories of risk that influence the overall risk of the banking business in such conditions, it can be concluded that credit risk presents the dominant and decisive factor. The aim of the paper is to select the bank determinant key factors of credit risk and to determine the extent to which non-performing loans （NPL） of bank credits affect the solvency of banks, and therefore also the risk of investors. This selection of the main determinants will be based on the analysis of financial statements. This is essential, especially taking into account the impact of the global financial crisis and the increasingly frequent falling into insolvency customers. Finally, liquidity of customers is that of the bank, and it is crucial for investors to timely identify possible risks associated with bank loans in order to proactively manage risk investment.

Investor＇s Portfolio Allocation by Financial Asset Classes Using Fuzzy Logic-Based Approach in Decision Support System

The paper present the fuzzy logic expert system called MADSYS for an investor＇s portfolio allocation by financial asset classes. MADSYS system will be used in the interface agent （agents） of multi-agent investment management information system. One of the principal tasks of the multi-agent system is to help an investor to make investment decisions and to provide appropriate investment proposals according to the investor＇s profile. From MADSYS depends a lot of things, namely the multi-agent investment management information system accuracy, proposed investment decisions, the right portfolio allocation of financial assets, reliability and investor satisfaction. The usage of MADSYS system in the multi-agent system makes it more intellectual, i.e. the system will be able to adjust automatically to the changing of investor profile. The MADSYS system may be tried online at the following address：www.sprendimutechnologij os.lt/webapp.