污水BOT项目投资参数快速反演计算研究

污水BOT项目的投资参数,尤其是水价,是政府与企业关注的重点。由于投资测算模型中自变量、因变量函数关系复杂,长久以来,投资分析主要以试算及经验为主。以某污水BOT项目为依托,详细分析了污水BOT项目水价组成并根据水价组成分析结果,采用均匀设计理论设计了试验工况,然后将各试验工况计算结果代入测算模型计算,建立了污水BOT投资项目自变量、因变量BP网络函数模型。在给定盈利能力指标、债务偿还指标、财务生存指标的基础上快速反演了投资参数。此方法将为其它类似项目提供借鉴。

油气并购交易评价油价特征研究及与投资项目经济评价参数油价的比较性分析

文章通过研究分析十五年来伍德麦肯兹公司的全球上游并购分析报告,及与国际基准原油价格的对比分析,总结了2005年以来的各年度数据及其变化趋势;结合国内文献研究,归纳总结出该价格体系的特征。同时与投资项目经济评价的决策油价开展了比较性分析,意在促使国内石油公司、研究机构和能源学者更好地理解全球并购交易评价油价体系,持续提高国内石油公司未来在全球油气并购市场上交易行为的质量和效益,增强全球油气资源统筹开发利用和配置能力,提升国际化经营水平,保证我国油气能源长期供给安全。

不允许卖空的含参数均值–方差投资组合模型

为了描述投资组合问题的动态变化性,本文提出了一类含参数均值–方差投资组合模型。与类似模型相比,该模型具有以下特点:均值与协方差是时间的函数;考虑了噪声与计算误差等因素的影响;资源不允许卖空,即其要求决策变量非负。针对该模型,本文给出了一类抗噪声在线求解算法。理论分析表明,对于各类噪声,该在线算法生成的误差是有界的,并且该上界随时间的增长快速趋于零。最后,初步的仿真实验验证了所设计算法的有效性。

Joint Occurrence Period of Wind Speed and Wave Height Based on Both Service Term and Risk Probability

Return periods calculated for different environmental conditions are key parameters for ocean platform design.Many codes for offshore structure design give no consideration about the correlativity among multi-loads and over-estimate design values.This frequently leads to not only higher investment but also distortion of structural reliability analysis.The definition of design return period in existing codes and industry criteria in China are summarized.Then joint return periods of different ocean environmental parameters are determined from the view of service term and danger risk.Based on a bivariate equivalent maximum entropy distribution,joint design parameters are estimated for the concomitant wave height and wind speed at a site in the Bohai Sea.The calculated results show that even if the return period of each environmental factor,such as wave height or wind speed,is small,their combinations can lead to larger joint return periods.Proper design criteria for joint return period associated with concomitant environmental conditions will reduce structural size and lead to lower investment of ocean platforms for the exploitation of marginal oil field.

Optimizing the drilled well patterns for CBM recovery via numerical simulations and data envelopment analysis

Coalbed methane(CBM) commercial development requires choosing the arrangement of the wells.This should be done by considering the corresponding input-output(investment-profit) efficiencies.Simulations were obtained from the computer modeling group(CMG) given the reservoir conditions of the Panzhuang block in the southern part of the Qinshui Basin.This is a demonstration region for CBM development located in Shanxi province of northern China.The sensitivity of gas production from a single vertical well to the primary reservoir parameters was estimated first.Then multi-well gas production from three different well patterns was simulated to estimate the most appropriate well spacing.Combining the investment requirements then gave investment-profit efficiencies for these well patterns.A data envelopment analysis(DEA) model was used to optimize the efficiency.The results show that the permeability,the reservoir pressure,and the gas content have an evident impact on single well gas production.The desorption time has little or no affect on production.The equilateral triangular well pattern(ETWP) in a 400 m well spacing is,for multi-well development,the optimal pattern.It has a better input-output ratio,a longer stable yield time,and provides for greater CBM recovery than does either the rectangular well pattern(RWP) or the five point well pattern(FPWP).

Efficiency Rankings of MBA Programs in Indian Top Public Colleges

This study examines the relative efficiency of the top 20 Indian public colleges that offer MBAs. These colleges were chosen from a list provided by Careers 360, a magazine in India known for its university rankings. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the colleges on an efficiency basis rather than on a total score ranking scale as is the common practice of most publications that rank universities or programs. The ranking method used in this study is based on data envelopment analysis （DEA）, a nonparametric procedure for evaluating entities based upon examining inputs in relation to outputs achieved. The rankings using DEA were somewhat different than those given by Careers 360. The results of the DEA analysis of this study rank the universities that are the most efficient at getting students the best salaries and return on investment （ROI） based on the inputs of diversity, work experience, and residency. The authors conclude, as previous studies have shown, that DEA analysis is a useful and non-biased method of comparing university programs.

经济发展水平对跨境资本流动的门限效应——兼评中国“非理性”对外投资

2016年中国对外直接投资同比激增44．1％，2017年上半年又同比陡降42．％．跨境资本流动引起政府和学术界的广泛关注。本文运用Alfaroeta1．（2014）构建的国际资本流动数据库．逐步滤出跨境资本净流入中不满足“新古典”假定的干扰成分．将现实的资本流动逼近为“新古典”世界中的资本流动．并采用Chudiketa1．（2017）提出的参数异质性动态面板门限模型（Dynamic Heterogeneous Threshold Panel Data Model）．检验了经济发展水平是否对跨境资本流动存在门限效应。研究发现．经济发展到一定阶段之后，跨境资本净流入的规模会出现结构性下降．支持了新古典理论关于资本流动方向的判断，“卢卡斯悖论”并未得到经验支持。另外，就世界一般性规律而言，中国经济发展还没有达到跨境资本流动发生结构变化的水平．还不足以支撑大规模资本持续净流出。

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT AND PROPORTIONAL REINSURANCE IN THE SPARRE ANDERSEN MODEL

From the insurer＇s point of view, this paper studies the optimal investment and proportional reinsurance in the Sparre Andersen model. Under the criterion of maximizing the adjustment coefficient, the authors obtain the closed form expressions of the optimal strategy and the maximal adjustment coefficient, and derive the explicit expression of the ruin probability or its lower bound when the claim sizes are exponentially distributed. Some numerical examples are presented, which show the impact of model parameters on the optimal values. It can also be seen that the optimal strategy to maximize the adjustment coefficient is sometimes equivalent to those which minimize the ruin probability.