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城市轨道交通客流预测的评估和抗风险设计 被引量:22
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作者 沈景炎 《城市轨道交通研究》 2002年第2期26-31,共6页
客流预测是轨道交通建设的重要基础工作。阐述了客流预测的目的和内容 ,分析了客流预测的难度和风险 ,提出了可信性评价的要点 ,对客流预测提出了波动范围的要求。采取了面对现实的观点 ,创建了抗风险设计的理念 ,对客流预测的风险做了... 客流预测是轨道交通建设的重要基础工作。阐述了客流预测的目的和内容 ,分析了客流预测的难度和风险 ,提出了可信性评价的要点 ,对客流预测提出了波动范围的要求。采取了面对现实的观点 ,创建了抗风险设计的理念 ,对客流预测的风险做了有限性和突破性的分析 ,提出了抗风险的适应性和转移性的措施 ,使客流预测的数据与运营能力设计之间具有较大适应弹性。对于轨道交通的运营组织 ,采取分期设计很重要 ,尤其是应分别确定初、近期和远期的车辆编组和行车密度 ,这有利于抗风险设计。 展开更多
关键词 城市轨道交通 客流预测 可信性评价 抗风险设计 运营能力
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Uniform-risk-targeted seismic design for collapse safety of building structures 被引量:7
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作者 SHI Wei LU XinZheng YE LiePing 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第6期1481-1488,共8页
Seismic design should quantitatively evaluate and control the risk of earthquake-induced collapse that a building structure may experience during its design service life. This requires taking into consideration both t... Seismic design should quantitatively evaluate and control the risk of earthquake-induced collapse that a building structure may experience during its design service life. This requires taking into consideration both the collapse resistant capacity of the building and the earthquake ground motion demand. The fundamental concept of uniform-risk-targeted seismic design and its relevant assessment process are presented in this paper. The risks of earthquake-induced collapse for buildings located in three seismic regions with the same prescribed seismic fortification intensity but different actual seismic hazards are analyzed to il- lustrate the engineering significance of uniform-risk-targeted seismic design. The results show that with China's current seis- mic design method, the risk of earthquake-induced collapse of buildings varies greatly from site to site. Additional research is needed to further develop and implement the uniform-risk-targeted seismic design aoDroach oronnsed in thi~ nnner 展开更多
关键词 building structure collapse safety collapse resistant capacity seismic hazard uniform-risk-targeted seismic design
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