参数对地震动随机模拟结果的影响分析

随机有限断层法是模拟近场高频地震动常用的方法,且被国内外研究者证实是成功的且有效的模拟高频地震动的工具。由于随机有限断层模拟方法输入参数较多,造成对模拟结果的不确定因素也相应较多,因此在使用随机有限断层法时如何合理地确定输入参数则成为研究者需要考虑的首要问题,也是成功重建场点加速度纪录的关键环节。简要地介绍了地震动模拟的基本理论、流程和主要参数的意义,在国内外研究者的研究成果基础上以芦山Mw6.6地震为例重点分析了地震动持时对峰值加速度(PGA)、5%阻尼比加速度反应谱(PSA)和加速度傅里叶谱(FAS)模拟结果的影响。主要得出以下结论:(1)在特定震级下,持时模型对峰值加速度影响较大,特别是断层距越小时,这种影响作用越明显;(2)通过四种持时模型得到的傅里叶谱和反应谱以及模型偏差分析可知,根据记录90%有效持时拟合其与震中距得到的持时模型表现较好。最后分析了脉冲百分比和断层上缘埋深等参数对模拟反应谱的影响,结果显示:(1)在相同震级下,反应谱幅值随脉冲百分比的变化差异不大;(2)在断层方位尺寸给定的前提下,反应谱幅值随上缘埋深的增加而减小。这些结论可以为随机有限断层模拟方法的工程实际应用时更合理地挑选参数提供理论依据,也可以相应的提高模拟精度。

Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming targets

The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ℃. However, for climate mitigation and adaption efforts, further studies are still needed to understand the regional consequences between the two global warming limits. Here we provide an assessment of changes in temperature extremes over China （relative to 1986-2005） at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming levels （relative to 1861-1900） by using the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） models under three RCP scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5）. Results show that the increases in mean temperature and temperature extremes over China are greater than that in global mean temperature. With respect to 1986-2005, the temperature of hottest day （TXx） and coldest night （TNn） are projected to increase about 1/1.6 ℃ and 1.1/1.8 ℃, whereas warm days （TX90p） and warm spell duration （WSDI） will increase about 7.5/13.8% and 15/30 d for the 1.5/2 ℃ global warming target, respectively. Under an additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, the projected increases of temperature in warmest day/night and coldest day/night are both more than 0.5 ℃ across almost the whole China. In Northwest China, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, the projected changes are particularly sensitive to the additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, for example, multi-model mean increase in coldest day （TXn） and coldest night （TNn） will be about 2 times higher than a change of 0.5 ℃ global warming. Although the area-averaged changes in temperature extremes are very similar for different scenarios, spatial hotspot still exists, such as in Northwest China and North China, the increases in temperatures are apparently larger in RCP8.5 than that in RCP4.5.

PRICES OF ASIAN OPTIONS UNDER STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES

Asian options are the popular second generation derivative products and embedded in many structured notes to enhance upside performance.The embedded options,as a result,usually have a long duration.The movement of interest rates becomes more important in pricing such long-dated options.In this paper,the pricing of Asian options under stochastic interest rates is studied.Assuming Hull and White model for the interest rates,a closed-form formula for geometric-average options is derived.As a by-product,pricing formula is also given for plan-vanilla options under stochastic interest rates.

Early warning model for slope debris flow initiation

Early warning model of debris flow is important for providing local residents with reliable and accurate warning information to escape from debris flow hazards. This research studied the debris flow initiation in the Yindongzi gully in Dujiangyan City, Sichuan province, China with scaled-down model experiments. We set rainfall intensity and slope angle as dominating parameters and carried out 20 scaled-down model tests under artificial rainfall conditions. The experiments set four slope angles(32°, 34°, 37°, 42°) and five rainfall intensities(60 mm/h, 90 mm/h, 120 mm/h, 150 mm/h, and 180 mm/h) treatments. The characteristic variables in the experiments, such as, rainfall duration, pore water pressure, moisture content, surface inclination, and volume were monitored. The experimental results revealed the failure mode of loose slope material and the process of slope debris flow initiation, as well as the relationship between the surface deformation and the physical parameters of experimental model. A traditional rainfall intensity-duration early warning model(I-D model) was firstly established by using a mathematical regression analysis, and it was then improved into ISD model and ISM model(Here, I is rainfall Intensity, S is Slope angle, D is rainfall Duration, and M is Moisture content). The warning model can provide reliable early warning of slope debris flow initiation.

Improvement of chromium biosorption through protoplast electrofusion between Candida tropicalis and Candida lipolytica

Protoplasts from Candida tropicalis and Candida lipolytica were fused under an optimized electrofusion （electrical pulse strength 6 kV/cm, pulse duration time 40μs and pulse times 5） and then regenerated on YEPD media for achieving new genotypes with higher chromium loading capacity. A target fusant RHJ-004 was screened out by its chromium resistance and chromium-sorbing capacity tests for further research. The comparative study of applicability shows that the fusant has better performance than its parent strains in respect of solution pH, biomass concentration and chromium loading capacity. Especially for treating low concentration Cr（VI） （〈20 mg/L）, above 80% chromium is sequestered from the aqueous phase at pH 1-9. Atomic force microscopy （AFM） visualizes the distribution of chromium on the binding sites of the cells, suggesting that the altered surface structure and intracellular constitutes of the fusant associate with its increased biosorption capacity. The rapid biosorption processes of chromium foUow the Langmuir model well.

The Information Risk in the Latest Crisis： A Driver or a Driven Factor for Global Financial Markets Equilibrium？

The latest financial crisis has been impressive for strength, impact, duration, and reduced efficacy of the economic and financial policies adopted by the authorities. We use an original information risk model to contribute to the analysis of the crisis and to suggest some approaches for a possible early diagnosis. Using data referred to the three main financial markets and comparing the latest crisis with the previous one and with long-term quantitative evidence, we find out that the 2007-2009 crisis was very different in the information risk quality. That gap affected the market risk aversion and its equilibrium, reducing the efficacy of the authorities＇ intervention tools mainly based on payoff risk control and efficient market restoration. Since information risk is an endogenous element of the market dynamics that can be independent form contingent levels of market efficiency. Drivers of information risk in the European Markets differed strongly from the US and Japanese ones; that is why some global decisions had low impact while opportunities of local intervention were missed.

Optimization of support vector machine power load forecasting model based on data mining and Lyapunov exponents

According to the chaotic and non-linear characters of power load data,the time series matrix is established with the theory of phase-space reconstruction,and then Lyapunov exponents with chaotic time series are computed to determine the time delay and the embedding dimension.Due to different features of the data,data mining algorithm is conducted to classify the data into different groups.Redundant information is eliminated by the advantage of data mining technology,and the historical loads that have highly similar features with the forecasting day are searched by the system.As a result,the training data can be decreased and the computing speed can also be improved when constructing support vector machine(SVM) model.Then,SVM algorithm is used to predict power load with parameters that get in pretreatment.In order to prove the effectiveness of the new model,the calculation with data mining SVM algorithm is compared with that of single SVM and back propagation network.It can be seen that the new DSVM algorithm effectively improves the forecast accuracy by 0.75%,1.10% and 1.73% compared with SVM for two random dimensions of 11-dimension,14-dimension and BP network,respectively.This indicates that the DSVM gains perfect improvement effect in the short-term power load forecasting.

The Crucial Role of Time in M＆A Activities： An Inductive Exploration

Mergers ＆ acquisitions （M＆As） are important strategic instruments, yet nearly half of all transactions fail, often resulting in disastrous write-offs and losses for corporations and financing institutions alike - despite promising prospects upfront. Applied research has been trying to find a ＂panacea＂ to prevent or at least predict M＆A failure, investigating motives, synergies and performance. Despite the growing unease with the stationary explanatory models in literature, research has only marginally focused on the concept of time, with inquiries into market timing and integration speed. Yet other timing concepts have been neglected in concepts so far despite early empirical evidence for their existence. The purpose of this paper is thus to identify and elaborate on the importance of further relevant theories of timing. For this, and true to the exploratory nature of the topic, the authors have chosen a qualitative comparative case study design based on existing case reports which are investigated for narrations highlighting timing concepts. This study reveals six factors which have a crucial impact on the M＆A outcome： time of acquisition, M＆A duration in its entirety, M＆A sequence, synergy chronology, frequency of acquisitions and time to step back. It contributes to theory and practice in outlining the careful attention that needs to be paid in planning in these factors to enhance the chances of a successful M＆A transaction.

On Numerical Approach to Non-Markovian Stochastic Systems Modeling

The paper considers the problem of representing non-Markovian systems that evolve stochastically over time. It is often necessary to use approximations in the case the system is non-Markovian. Phase type distribution is by now indispensable tool in creation of stochastic system models. The paper suggests a method and software for evaluating stochastic systems approximations by Markov chains with continuous time and countable state space. The performance of a system is described in the event language used for generating the set of states and transition matrix between them. The example of a numerical model is presented.

PERIODIC SOLUTION AND PERSISTENCE FOR A THREE-SPECIES RATIO-DEPENDENT PREDATOR-PREY MODEL WITH TIME DELAYS IN TWO-PATCH ENVIRONMENTS

The author considers a three-species ratio-dependent predator-prey model with time delay in a two-patch environments. This model is of periodic coefficients, which incorporates the periodicity of the environment. By means of the coincidence degree theory, sufficient conditions for the existence of at least one positive periodic solution of this model are established. Moreover, The author shows that the system is uniformly persistent under the conditions.

Sun's total irradiance reconstruction based on multiple solar indices

In order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate, we need a much longer time series, i.e., the total solar irradiance (TSI) which is also an interesting issue in its own right in solar physics. By comparing different solar indices associated with TSI during the period 1979 to 2009, several empirical models in the TSI are presented. We verify that the reconstruction model based on the three variables: sunspot number, sunspot area, and solar 10.7 cm radio flux, is the best one. As demonstrated by model calculations, the history of TSI was reconstructed back to 1947 based on 3-indices and to 1874 based on 2-indices, respectively. The reason that the reduced irradiance on the trough during 2006 to 2009 lasts long may be due to the about 85-year cycle of solar activity, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year cycle (Schwabe cycles), possesses a considerable potential to produce an effective reducing, and holds on a steadily lower level of irradiance.

Antidepressant-like effect of active fraction of Polyrhachisvicina Roger in a rat depression model

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the antidepressant-likeeffect of active fraction of Polyrhachis vicina Roger(AFPR) in a rat depression model, and to elucidate the underlying mechanism.METHODS: AFPR was extracted with ethanol followed by petroleum ether. Its antidepressant-like effect was investigated in mice by tail suspension test(TST), forced swimming test(FST) and open field test(OPT). A repeated dose of reserpine(0.5 mg/kg, daily for 14 d) was used to establish a rat depression model. Fluoxetine was used as positive control agent. The effect of AFPR on reserpine-induced ptosis, hypothermia and akinesia, the levels of monoamines and their metabolites, and the activity of monoamine oxidase(MAO) in hippocampus and prefrontal cortex were determined.RESULTS: Administration of AFPR by gavage at 160 and 320 mg/kg significantly reduced the duration of immobility in the FST and TST, and did not affect locomotor activity in the OPT. In the reserpine-induced depression model, AFPR attenuated anhedonia, demonstrated by reversing hypothermia, akinesia and sucrose consumption. AFPR significantly increased the concentration of monoamines, including dopamine, serotonin, noradrenaline and acetylcholine.CONCLUSION: AFPR normalized the metabolism rates of noradrenaline, serotonin and dopamine,and the activity of MAO, which were altered by chronic reserpine exposure. The findings suggest that modulation of the monoaminergic neurotransmitter system likely underlies the antidepressant-like effect of AFPR.

Determination of epidemic parameters from early phase fatality data： A case study of the 2009 A（H1N1） pandemic in Europe

This paper demonstrates that the susceptible-infected-removed （SIR） model applied to the early phase of an epidemic can be used to determine epidemic parameters reliably. As a case study, the SIR model is applied to the fatality data of the 2009 fall wave cycle of the A（H1N1） pandemic in 12 European countries. It is observed that the best estimates of the basic reproduction number R0 and the mean duration of the infection period l/r/ lie on a curve in the scatterplots, indicating the existence of a nearly-invariant quantity which corresponds to the duration of the epidemic. Spline interpolation applied to the early phase of the epidemic, an approximately 10-week period, together with a future control point in the stabilization region, is sufficient to estimate model parameters. The SIR model is run over a wide range of parameters and estimates of R0 in the range 1.2- 2.0 match the values in the literature. The duration of the infection period, 1/η is estimated to be in the range 2.0-7.0 days. Longer infection periods are tied to spatial characteristics of the spread of the epidemic.

A new quantitative structure-retention relationship model for predicting chromatographic retention time of oligonucleotides

An integrated approach is proposed to predict the chromatographic retention time of oligonucleotides based on quantitative structure-retention relationships （QSRR） models. First, the primary base sequences of oligonucleotides are translated into vectors based on scores of generalized base properties （SGBP）, involving physicochemical, quantum chemical, topological, spatial structural properties, etc.; thereafter, the sequence data are transformed into a uniform matrix by auto cross covariance （ACC）. ACC accounts for the interactions between bases at a certain distance apart in an oligonucleotide sequence; hence, this method adequately takes the neighboring effect into account. Then, a genetic algorithm is used to select the variables related to chromatographic retention behavior of oligonuclcotides. Finally, a support vector machine is used to develop QSRR models to predict chromatographic retention behavior. The whole dataset is divided into pairs of training sets and test sets with different proportions; as a result, it has been found that the QSRR models using more than 26 training samples have an appropriate external power, and can accurately represent the relationship between the features of sequences and structures, and the retention times. The results indicate that the SGBP-ACC approach is a useful structural representation method in QSRR of oligonucleotides due to its many advantages such as plentiful structural information, easy manipulation and high characterization competence. Moreover, the method can further be applied to predict chromatographic retention behavior of oligonucleotides.

Mathematical models of canine right and left atria cardiomyocytes

The aim of this study is to build two mathematical models of canine ionic currents specific to right atria and left atria.The canine left atria mathematical model was firstly modified from the Ramirez-Nattel-Courtemanche(RNC) model using the recently available experimental data of ionic currents and was further developed based on our own experimental data.A model of right atria was then built by considering the differences between right atria and left atria.The two developed models well reproduced the experimental data on action potential morphology,the rate dependence,and action potential duration restitution.They are useful for investigating the mechanisms underlying the het-erogeneity of canine regional action potentials and would help the simulation of whole heart excitation propagation and cardiac arrhythmia in the near future.