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中国股市收益率波动实证研究──基于自回归条件持续性模型 被引量:2
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作者 蔡艳萍 谢家泉 《财经理论与实践》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第1期62-66,共5页
结合高频数据和自回归条件持续性(ACD)模型进行的研究表明:在中国市场,自回归条件持续性模型可以成功用来衡量交易到达的强度。最后展望了该模型的发展方向。
关键词 高频数据 自回归条件持续性模型 持续性 微观结构理论
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水土保持型生态农业可持续性评价——以陕西省安塞县纸坊沟为例 被引量:8
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作者 黄良 李靖 《中国水土保持科学》 CSCD 2007年第3期94-99,104,共7页
基于联合国粮农组织对农业可持续发展的定义,采用社会经济统计学法,建立水土保持型生态农业可持续性评价多指标模型,并利用此模型对陕西省安塞县纸坊沟流域水土保持型生态农业实体模式进行评价与分析。结果显示:纸坊沟流域水土保持型生... 基于联合国粮农组织对农业可持续发展的定义,采用社会经济统计学法,建立水土保持型生态农业可持续性评价多指标模型,并利用此模型对陕西省安塞县纸坊沟流域水土保持型生态农业实体模式进行评价与分析。结果显示:纸坊沟流域水土保持型生态农业的可持续生产性指数、经济活性指数、保护性指数、稳定性指数和社会接受性指数分别为69.5、56.8、62.5、86.8和52.8;综合可持续发展指数为65.4,离可持续发展目标仍有较大的差距。 展开更多
关键词 水土保持型生态农业 持续性评价模型 指标体系 层次分析法
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太阳辐射短时临近预报R模型的构建及验证 被引量:2
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作者 姚德贵 刘唯佳 +2 位作者 韩永翔 李哲 梁允 《干旱区地理》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第1期47-55,共9页
提高太阳辐射短时临近预报(<6 h)的准确率是确保电网调度的重要举措,也是极具挑战性的技术瓶颈之一。基于云-辐射关系,利用地面观测的太阳辐照度反演的云相对辐射强迫比值,构建了太阳辐射短时临近预报模型(R模型),并用美国南部大平... 提高太阳辐射短时临近预报(<6 h)的准确率是确保电网调度的重要举措,也是极具挑战性的技术瓶颈之一。基于云-辐射关系,利用地面观测的太阳辐照度反演的云相对辐射强迫比值,构建了太阳辐射短时临近预报模型(R模型),并用美国南部大平原中心站16 a的辐照度观测数据,对R模型的预报性能进行了评估。结果表明:(1)有云存在的个例中,R模型较传统的简单持续性模型(Simple模型)的预报性能有很大提升,相比于预报性能较高的智能持续性模型(Smart模型或RCRF模型)仍有2%~25%的改进。(2)在16 a包含2.9×10^(5)个8类云状个例的总体检验中,当预报时效超过1 h时,R模型的预报性能显著优于Simple模型和RCRF模型。相对于RCRF模型,R模型在6 h预报时效下,对总辐射和直接辐射的预报性能可分别提高25%和19%,预报时效分别延长了1.5 h和1 h。(3)R模型为太阳辐射短时临近预报提供了准确率更高的基准模型。同时,该模型可仅依靠地面短期的辐照度观测资料即可预报,为缺少同期气象要素观测的光伏电厂的辐射预报提供了新的途径或新的可能。 展开更多
关键词 持续性模型 短时临近预报 预报性能 光伏电厂
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基于云辐射强迫的太阳辐射短期预报模型 被引量:1
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作者 姚德贵 刘唯佳 +2 位作者 韩永翔 李哲 梁允 《电网与清洁能源》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第1期85-90,99,共7页
太阳能持续性模型常被用作基准模型以评估其他模型的预报性能,但有云时的预报准确率很低。基于云相对辐射强迫(RCRF)的持续性,构建了RCRF模型。它能更好地预报有云时段的太阳辐照度。利用美国南部大平原中心站长达16年的太阳辐射资料,... 太阳能持续性模型常被用作基准模型以评估其他模型的预报性能,但有云时的预报准确率很低。基于云相对辐射强迫(RCRF)的持续性,构建了RCRF模型。它能更好地预报有云时段的太阳辐照度。利用美国南部大平原中心站长达16年的太阳辐射资料,通过一个有云个例和所有样本评估了新模型的预报性能,并与应用最广泛的Simple模型作对比。结果表明:新模型的预报性能优于Simple模型,百分比误差评分(S)评估结果显示新模型6 h预报精度相较于Simple模型最大可提高至56%,预报时效也延长了0.25~2 h不等。RCRF模型为太阳能预报模式提供了准确率更高的基准模型。 展开更多
关键词 持续性模型 太阳辐照度 云相对辐射强迫 预报准确率
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地方政府融资平台债务的可持续规模动态测算——以中部地区J市为例 被引量:6
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作者 洪源 《中南财经政法大学学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第6期35-42,143,共8页
基于可持续负债理论,针对地方政府融资平台债务的运作特点,通过将当期融资平台债务可持续规模设定等于未来偿付期内融资平台的偿债资金现值,构建出融资平台债务可持续性模型来确定融资平台债务的可持续规模。以我国中部地区J市融资平台... 基于可持续负债理论,针对地方政府融资平台债务的运作特点,通过将当期融资平台债务可持续规模设定等于未来偿付期内融资平台的偿债资金现值,构建出融资平台债务可持续性模型来确定融资平台债务的可持续规模。以我国中部地区J市融资平台为例,在利用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测出2012~2021年J市融资平台的偿债资金数额基础上,运用构建的可持续性模型动态测算出2007~2011年间J市融资平台债务的可持续规模适度区间,通过将J市融资平台当期债务的实际规模与可持续规模进行对比,判断融资平台债务的可持续性,并据此对融资平台债务风险进行评价。 展开更多
关键词 地方政府融资平台债务 持续性模型 持续规模
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我国城市可持续发展评价指标体系建构的误区与改进 被引量:4
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作者 毕星 王巍 赵国杰 《自然辩证法研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2005年第9期85-88,106,共5页
本文首先分析了我国城市可持续发展评价指标体系构建的误区和测评的失误,接着重点分析和论述了我国城市发展可持续性的评价模型。
关键词 城市可持续发展 评价指标体系 误区 持续性评价模型
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结核分枝杆菌感染的动物模型 被引量:4
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作者 师长宏 徐志凯 范雄林 《国外医学(微生物学分册)》 2004年第4期31-34,共4页
复制结核分枝杆菌感染的动物模型是进行结核病研究的基础.本文分别对小鼠、豚鼠、兔和非人灵长类动物结核模型的特点及其应用进行综述,并指出慢性持续性感染模型是结核动物模型研究的重点.
关键词 结核分枝杆菌感染 动物模型 细胞表型 慢性持续性感染模型
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Model of Land Suitability Evaluation Based on Computational Intelligence 被引量:4
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作者 JIAO Limin LIU Yaolin 《Geo-Spatial Information Science》 2007年第2期151-156,共6页
A novel model of land suitability evaluation is built based on computational intelligence (CI). A fuzzy neural network (FNN) is constructed by the integration of fuzzy logic and artificial neural network (ANN). The st... A novel model of land suitability evaluation is built based on computational intelligence (CI). A fuzzy neural network (FNN) is constructed by the integration of fuzzy logic and artificial neural network (ANN). The structure and process of this network is clear. Fuzzy rules (knowledge) are expressed in the model explicitly, and can be self-adjusted by learning from samples. Genetic algorithm (GA) is employed as the learning algorithm to train the network, and makes the training of the model efficient. This model is a self-learning and self-adaptive system with a rule set revised by training. 展开更多
关键词 land suitability evaluation computational intelligence fuzzy neural network genetic algorithm
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Theoretical and exploratory research on sustainability mental model of the public in China:based on a typical survey in Guangdong province
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作者 Chengzhi Long Jing Lin 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2017年第2期167-174,共8页
This article aims to investigate the public's sustainability mental model(SMM), which can reveal the sustainability dilemma from the public respective, other than enterprise or government. In this article, SMM is ... This article aims to investigate the public's sustainability mental model(SMM), which can reveal the sustainability dilemma from the public respective, other than enterprise or government. In this article, SMM is defined as one's cognitive structure, thinking mode, and behavior tendency when someone deals with sustainability issues. After theoretical analysis, the authors developed reliable and valid measures systematically and conducted a typical survey with 581 participants from college students' families in Guangdong province in China. Based on those samples, the author used the exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to construct a measurement model of SMM, which includes three dimensions, i.e. sustainable cognition, sustainable thinking, and sustainable behavior intention. According to SMM survey and clustering analysis, the results indicate that SMM of those participants is inactive. Even though those samples do not represent the whole country comprehensively, but this survey was sampled typically and they came from around China. So, the authors consider the SMM scores can reflect Chinese people to some extent, leading to the assumption that SMM of Chinese people is not active presently. 展开更多
关键词 Sustainable development sustainability mental model exploring factor analysis confirmatory factor analysis
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A nonlinear bottom-following controller for underactuated autonomous underwater vehicles 被引量:6
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作者 贾鹤鸣 张利军 +3 位作者 边信黔 严浙平 程相勤 周佳加 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第5期1240-1248,共9页
The bottom-following problem for underactuated autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) was addressed by a new type of nonlinear decoupling control law. The vertical bottom-following error and pitch angle error are stab... The bottom-following problem for underactuated autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) was addressed by a new type of nonlinear decoupling control law. The vertical bottom-following error and pitch angle error are stabilized by means of the stem plane, and the thruster is left to stabilize the longitudinal bottom-following error and forward speed. In order to better meet the need of engineering applications, working characteristics of the actuators were sufficiently considered to design the proposed controller. Different from the traditional method, the methodology used to solve the problem is generated by AUV model without a reference orientation, and it deals explicitly with vehicle dynamics and the geometric characteristics of the desired tracking bottom curve. The estimation of systemic uncertainties and disturbances and the pitch velocity PE (persistent excitation) conditions are not required. The stability analysis is given by Lyapunov theorem. Simulation results of a full nonlinear hydrodynamic AUV model are provided to validate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed controller. 展开更多
关键词 underactuated autonomous underwater vehicle bottom-following nonlinear iterative sliding mode
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Sustainable Development Plan Based on Mathematic Model Analysis
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作者 Liang LV Wenwei ZENG Xinyun LU 《International Journal of Technology Management》 2015年第7期118-120,共3页
Sustainable development has been a global issue, which focuses on balancing human needs with the earth' s health. In this paper, we construct a model to distinguish the sustainability of a country. To evaluate the s... Sustainable development has been a global issue, which focuses on balancing human needs with the earth' s health. In this paper, we construct a model to distinguish the sustainability of a country. To evaluate the sustainability of a country, we select eight metrics based on four aspects: Society, Economics, Ecology and Politics. We use BP neural network to obtain the sustainability ranking and use Grey Relational Analysis to calculate the sustainability scores of 187countries. By combining the ranking and the score, we develop a measure to define whether a country is sustainable or not. The critical point is Maldives, which ranks No. 103 and scores 63.65. As one of least developed countries, Uganda ranks No.164 and scores 48.79, according to our measure. Based on Uganda' s society, population, natural resources, etc., we draft a 20-year (2013-2033) sustainable development plan that integrates the social, economic, ecological and political components. The overall goal of the plan is to transform Uganda into a sustainable country and make noticeable progress in the ranking. Furthermore, to analyze changes' influence on our plan, we take climate change as an example. The weights of Environment and Health will be modified by climate change, causing a reduction in the growth rate of sustainability score. 展开更多
关键词 Sustainable development BP neural network GRA 20-year sustainable development plan
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Measuring Contribution of BIM (Building Information Modeling) to the Construction Sustainability Goals
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作者 Arjun R. Pandey Farzad Shahbodaghlou 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2016年第3期379-384,共6页
"BIM (building information modeling)" and "sustainability" are two frequently used words in construction and academia today. BIM is a design-oriented tool, which generates a virtual three-dimensional model of a ... "BIM (building information modeling)" and "sustainability" are two frequently used words in construction and academia today. BIM is a design-oriented tool, which generates a virtual three-dimensional model of a project. Sustainability refers to prudent use of earth's natural resources, and construction sustainability is the application of this principle to building activities. Societies in general and the construction industry in particular--one of the largest in terms of natural resources consumed and waste produced--place high hopes on BIM and the principles of sustainability to reduce consumption and waste and to increase industry productivity. BIM's capabilities and limitations, currently more focused on model creation and energy simulations, are not well understood as they relate to construction sustainability and its goals. No method yet exists to evaluate BIM's contribution comprehensively to construction sustainability goals. This study presents a construction sustainability goals contribution matrix for BIM. The matrix indicates that this contribution may be more limited than it is commonly thought. 展开更多
关键词 BIM sustainability principles construction sustainability goals building ecology
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