Land-use change is intertwined with tourism because land is used as a resource for human activities.Land-use change also provides an opportunity to evaluate the status of the ecoenvironment.Understanding the relations...Land-use change is intertwined with tourism because land is used as a resource for human activities.Land-use change also provides an opportunity to evaluate the status of the ecoenvironment.Understanding the relationship between tourism and land use change would help to predict the effect of tourism on land use and encourage sustainable tourism development.Using the Li River Basin as a case study,a hybrid approach using multilevel modeling and logistic regressions was employed to analyze the distribution of land-usechange between 1989 and 2010 to examine potential driving factors.Results reveal that rapid tourism development and construction expansion expose this area to risk of deforestation and forest degradation.Construction increased by 141% between 1989 and 2000 and by 195% between 2000 and 2010.The primary driving force for construction expansion shifted from population growth between 1989 and 2000 to investment growth after 2000.New construction primarily occurred on crop and woodlands areas,with shares of 81.25% and 6.38%,respectively,between 1989 and 2000,and with shares of 57.79% and 15.29%,respectively,between 2000 and 2010.Moreover,these drastic increases in construction also led to frequent transitions between croplands,woodlands,and grasslands.Traits including distances to urban areas and roads and scenic locations exerted significant effects on land-use change.Woodland regrowth in the areas thatsurround scenic locations consisted of fluctuating woodlands,whereas stable woodland regrowth was often absent in these areas.Likewise,permanent woodland clearing tended to be closed to near scenic locations.That is,construction at scenic locations negatively affected forest conservation in the Li River Basin.展开更多
Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones (TCs) influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events ar...Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones (TCs) influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC's center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events axe observed, is the largest in the 1980s.展开更多
This study investigated the relationship be- tween the asymmetry in the duration of El Nifio and La Nina and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long d...This study investigated the relationship be- tween the asymmetry in the duration of El Nifio and La Nina and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long decaying ENSO cases rather than the short decaying ones. The evolutions of short decaying El Nino and La Nina are approximately a mirror image with a rapid decline in the following summer for the warm and cold events. However, a robust asymmetry was found in long decaying cases, with a prolonged and re-intensified La Nina in the following winter. The asymmetry for long decaying cases starts from the westward extension of the zonal wind anomalies in a mature winter, and is further contributed to by the air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific in the following seasons.展开更多
Background The objective of this study was to identify prognostic indicators in patients with inflammatory cardiomyopathy (iCM) on endomyocardial biopsy (EMB). Methods and results Between 2007 and 2011 all consecu...Background The objective of this study was to identify prognostic indicators in patients with inflammatory cardiomyopathy (iCM) on endomyocardial biopsy (EMB). Methods and results Between 2007 and 2011 all consecutive patients with diagnosed with iCM at EMB were retrospectively analyzed. The combined primary endpoint (EP) (1E°P) was cardiac death, aborted sudden cardiac death/appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock, progressive heart failure requiring left venWicular assist device (LVAD) implantation and heart transplantation. 503 patients (mean age 58 ° 12 years, 73% male) were available for analysis. Genomes of cardiotrophic viruses were detected in 396 patients (79%) and immuno-histochemical signs of inflammation were present in 223 individuals (44%). After 3.6 ° 2.4 years of follow-up, cardiac mortality was 3.0% (n = 14) and a total of 8.6% (n = 40) reached the primary endpoint. Independent predictors for the 1 °EP were: age 〉 50 years, presence and duration (〈 28 days) of symptomatic heart failure. A risk stratification approach based on the results of the multivariate analysis demonstrated that absence of signs and/or symptoms of congestive heart failure in younger (〈 50 years) patients with longer (〉 28 days) duration of disease appear to have an excellent prognosis with 100% survival and no events during follow-up The presence of all above mentioned independent risk factors results in an 1°EP occurrence of 35.9%. Conclusions Symptoms of heart fail- ure, short duration of disease, and older age are indicators of poor outcome in patients with iCM.展开更多
The most recent trends in population dynamics have provoked a rigorous debate whether the private or the public pension insurance system should be predominant. The pay-as-you-go system is dominated by the state that g...The most recent trends in population dynamics have provoked a rigorous debate whether the private or the public pension insurance system should be predominant. The pay-as-you-go system is dominated by the state that guarantees its stability. Private pension insurance provides personal retirement accounts and proper ownership of the accumulated funds, but its sustainability during prolonged market crises and inadequate risk sharing are often questioned. In order to address this issue, this paper makes both an assessment and analysis of the arguments put forward in favor of the preservation of the pay-as-you-go system and a comparison of this system with some of the main characteristics of the private accounts system. This is the basis for seeking the objectively defined role of the pay-as-you-go system in the conditions of the market economy. A couple of conclusions that have been formulated might be of interest for the future improvement of the organization and management of pension insurance.展开更多
By employing the CCM1(R15L12)long-range spectral model, study is undertaken of the effects of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) for tropical Indian ocean on circulation transformation in the early summer in East A...By employing the CCM1(R15L12)long-range spectral model, study is undertaken of the effects of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) for tropical Indian ocean on circulation transformation in the early summer in East Asia in 1991. The results indicate that warmer SSTA contributes to the increasing of the temperature over the Plateau in early summer, resulting in the intensification of tropical easterly jet on 100 hPa and northward shift of Northern Hemisphere subtropical westerly jet in May. It is obviously favorable for the subtropical high enhancement over western Pacific Ocean in May and subtropical westerly jet maintaining at 35~40 °N in June, making the Mei-Yu come earlier and stay over the Changjiang basin in 1991. Furthermore, warmer SSTA is also advantageous to averaged temperature rise in East Asia land region and Nanhai monsoon development. These roles are helpful in accelerating the seasonal transition for East Asia in early summer.展开更多
Urban ecological risk analysis is a relatively new study field.Rapid industrial modernization and urbanization have significantly improved the living standards of the city.However,as environmental,safety and health is...Urban ecological risk analysis is a relatively new study field.Rapid industrial modernization and urbanization have significantly improved the living standards of the city.However,as environmental,safety and health issues are causing widespread concern,these problems have potential serious threat on ecosystems and human health.So how to solve many problems arising from city has become a key to sustainable development of human civilization.The present article analyzed the major problems that the city confronts and pointed out the main measures from the aspects of urban environment,safety and health.展开更多
The latest financial crisis has been impressive for strength, impact, duration, and reduced efficacy of the economic and financial policies adopted by the authorities. We use an original information risk model to cont...The latest financial crisis has been impressive for strength, impact, duration, and reduced efficacy of the economic and financial policies adopted by the authorities. We use an original information risk model to contribute to the analysis of the crisis and to suggest some approaches for a possible early diagnosis. Using data referred to the three main financial markets and comparing the latest crisis with the previous one and with long-term quantitative evidence, we find out that the 2007-2009 crisis was very different in the information risk quality. That gap affected the market risk aversion and its equilibrium, reducing the efficacy of the authorities' intervention tools mainly based on payoff risk control and efficient market restoration. Since information risk is an endogenous element of the market dynamics that can be independent form contingent levels of market efficiency. Drivers of information risk in the European Markets differed strongly from the US and Japanese ones; that is why some global decisions had low impact while opportunities of local intervention were missed.展开更多
Besides arguments like fighting against dispersed urbanization, improving economies of infrastructure and preserving natural resources, another measure to sustainability is the delight of people in staying together wi...Besides arguments like fighting against dispersed urbanization, improving economies of infrastructure and preserving natural resources, another measure to sustainability is the delight of people in staying together with others sharing a well-designed urban landscape. Analyzing the Celebration’s urban setting is highlighted how some design firms are turning to reclaim the types of urbanism and traditional American architecture, representing the wish for reinforcing the daily vicinity relationships. As a matter of sustainability, it mentioned aspects of vehicular accessibility and the population density which is higher in Celebration than that in other suburban towns in USA. Attention is given both to the management of natural landscape and the role of the entrepreneur to construct a town in a so fragile soil. The relationship between community and sustainability is highlighted, leading to the idea of building spaces to become places, capable to convey the feeling of joy of living.展开更多
Water eutrophication has become a worldwide environmental problem in recent years.Once a water body is eutrophicated,it will lose its primary functions and subsequently influence sustainable development of society and...Water eutrophication has become a worldwide environmental problem in recent years.Once a water body is eutrophicated,it will lose its primary functions and subsequently influence sustainable development of society and economy.Therefore,analysis of eutrophication becomes one of the most essential issues at present.With the ability to deal with vague and uncertain information,and express knowledge in a rule form,the rough set theory(RST) has been widely applied in diverse domains.The advantage of RST is that it can compress the rule and remove needless features by reduction inference rule.By this way,the rule gets effectively simplified and inference efficiency gets improved.However,if data amount is relatively big,it could be a process with large calculated amount to search rules by looking up tables.Petri nets(PNs) possesses so powerful parallel reasoning ability that inference result could be obtained rapidly merely by simple matrix manipulation with no need for searching rules by looking up tables.In this work,an integrated RPN model combining RST with PN was used to analyze relations between degrees of water eutrophication level and influence factors in the Pengxi River of Three Gorges Reservoir.It was shown that the RPN model could analyze water eutrophicaion accurately and quickly,and yield decision rules for the decision-makers at water purification plants of the water quality and assist them in making more cost-effective decisions.展开更多
In order to address the plight of rural financing, the 2007 China Banking Regulatory Commission, China's State Council started rural banks in provinces, towns and villages. There are so many problems faced by rural b...In order to address the plight of rural financing, the 2007 China Banking Regulatory Commission, China's State Council started rural banks in provinces, towns and villages. There are so many problems faced by rural banks. The most pressing issue is the sustainability of targeting deviate due to restraints, shortage of funds, and loan risks. In order to effectively address these issues, this paper presents some solutions展开更多
Wind energy is considered a hope in future as a clean and sustainable energy, as can be seen by the growing number of wind farms installed all over the world. With the huge proliferation of wind farms, as an alternati...Wind energy is considered a hope in future as a clean and sustainable energy, as can be seen by the growing number of wind farms installed all over the world. With the huge proliferation of wind farms, as an alternative to the traditional fossil power generation, the economic issues dictate the necessity of monitoring systems to optimize the availability and profits. The relatively high cost of operation and maintenance associated to wind power is a major issue. Wind turbines are most of the time located in remote areas or offshore and these factors increase the referred operation and maintenance costs. Good maintenance strategies are needed to increase the health management of wind turbines. The objective of this paper is to show the application of neural networks to analyze all the wind turbine information to identify possible future failures, based on previous information of the turbine.展开更多
文摘针对四旋翼无人机(Unmanned aerial vehicle,UAV)在轨迹跟踪过程中存在持续风干扰问题,设计了一种双闭环滑模控制方法。首先,依据四旋翼无人机系统欠驱动特性,将其分为系统位置环和姿态环;其次,基于风扰观测器,采用连续滑模控制算法并设计持续风补偿器,实现无人机位置信息在持续风干扰下的稳定跟踪;再次,采用映射自适应滑模控制算法并同样设计持续风补偿器,实现无人机姿态信息在持续风干扰下的稳定跟踪;最后,与传统比例积分微分(Proportional integral derivative,PID)控制进行仿真对比,验证了该控制方法的有效性和优越性。
基金sponsored by the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2012BAC16B00)the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41371097)
文摘Land-use change is intertwined with tourism because land is used as a resource for human activities.Land-use change also provides an opportunity to evaluate the status of the ecoenvironment.Understanding the relationship between tourism and land use change would help to predict the effect of tourism on land use and encourage sustainable tourism development.Using the Li River Basin as a case study,a hybrid approach using multilevel modeling and logistic regressions was employed to analyze the distribution of land-usechange between 1989 and 2010 to examine potential driving factors.Results reveal that rapid tourism development and construction expansion expose this area to risk of deforestation and forest degradation.Construction increased by 141% between 1989 and 2000 and by 195% between 2000 and 2010.The primary driving force for construction expansion shifted from population growth between 1989 and 2000 to investment growth after 2000.New construction primarily occurred on crop and woodlands areas,with shares of 81.25% and 6.38%,respectively,between 1989 and 2000,and with shares of 57.79% and 15.29%,respectively,between 2000 and 2010.Moreover,these drastic increases in construction also led to frequent transitions between croplands,woodlands,and grasslands.Traits including distances to urban areas and roads and scenic locations exerted significant effects on land-use change.Woodland regrowth in the areas thatsurround scenic locations consisted of fluctuating woodlands,whereas stable woodland regrowth was often absent in these areas.Likewise,permanent woodland clearing tended to be closed to near scenic locations.That is,construction at scenic locations negatively affected forest conservation in the Li River Basin.
基金supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program(No. 2008BAC44B03,2007BAC29B04)
文摘Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones (TCs) influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC's center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events axe observed, is the largest in the 1980s.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41105046)
文摘This study investigated the relationship be- tween the asymmetry in the duration of El Nifio and La Nina and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long decaying ENSO cases rather than the short decaying ones. The evolutions of short decaying El Nino and La Nina are approximately a mirror image with a rapid decline in the following summer for the warm and cold events. However, a robust asymmetry was found in long decaying cases, with a prolonged and re-intensified La Nina in the following winter. The asymmetry for long decaying cases starts from the westward extension of the zonal wind anomalies in a mature winter, and is further contributed to by the air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific in the following seasons.
文摘Background The objective of this study was to identify prognostic indicators in patients with inflammatory cardiomyopathy (iCM) on endomyocardial biopsy (EMB). Methods and results Between 2007 and 2011 all consecutive patients with diagnosed with iCM at EMB were retrospectively analyzed. The combined primary endpoint (EP) (1E°P) was cardiac death, aborted sudden cardiac death/appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock, progressive heart failure requiring left venWicular assist device (LVAD) implantation and heart transplantation. 503 patients (mean age 58 ° 12 years, 73% male) were available for analysis. Genomes of cardiotrophic viruses were detected in 396 patients (79%) and immuno-histochemical signs of inflammation were present in 223 individuals (44%). After 3.6 ° 2.4 years of follow-up, cardiac mortality was 3.0% (n = 14) and a total of 8.6% (n = 40) reached the primary endpoint. Independent predictors for the 1 °EP were: age 〉 50 years, presence and duration (〈 28 days) of symptomatic heart failure. A risk stratification approach based on the results of the multivariate analysis demonstrated that absence of signs and/or symptoms of congestive heart failure in younger (〈 50 years) patients with longer (〉 28 days) duration of disease appear to have an excellent prognosis with 100% survival and no events during follow-up The presence of all above mentioned independent risk factors results in an 1°EP occurrence of 35.9%. Conclusions Symptoms of heart fail- ure, short duration of disease, and older age are indicators of poor outcome in patients with iCM.
文摘The most recent trends in population dynamics have provoked a rigorous debate whether the private or the public pension insurance system should be predominant. The pay-as-you-go system is dominated by the state that guarantees its stability. Private pension insurance provides personal retirement accounts and proper ownership of the accumulated funds, but its sustainability during prolonged market crises and inadequate risk sharing are often questioned. In order to address this issue, this paper makes both an assessment and analysis of the arguments put forward in favor of the preservation of the pay-as-you-go system and a comparison of this system with some of the main characteristics of the private accounts system. This is the basis for seeking the objectively defined role of the pay-as-you-go system in the conditions of the market economy. A couple of conclusions that have been formulated might be of interest for the future improvement of the organization and management of pension insurance.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40375024) Key Scientific Research of Shandong Meteorological Bureau (5030376)
文摘By employing the CCM1(R15L12)long-range spectral model, study is undertaken of the effects of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) for tropical Indian ocean on circulation transformation in the early summer in East Asia in 1991. The results indicate that warmer SSTA contributes to the increasing of the temperature over the Plateau in early summer, resulting in the intensification of tropical easterly jet on 100 hPa and northward shift of Northern Hemisphere subtropical westerly jet in May. It is obviously favorable for the subtropical high enhancement over western Pacific Ocean in May and subtropical westerly jet maintaining at 35~40 °N in June, making the Mei-Yu come earlier and stay over the Changjiang basin in 1991. Furthermore, warmer SSTA is also advantageous to averaged temperature rise in East Asia land region and Nanhai monsoon development. These roles are helpful in accelerating the seasonal transition for East Asia in early summer.
文摘Urban ecological risk analysis is a relatively new study field.Rapid industrial modernization and urbanization have significantly improved the living standards of the city.However,as environmental,safety and health issues are causing widespread concern,these problems have potential serious threat on ecosystems and human health.So how to solve many problems arising from city has become a key to sustainable development of human civilization.The present article analyzed the major problems that the city confronts and pointed out the main measures from the aspects of urban environment,safety and health.
文摘The latest financial crisis has been impressive for strength, impact, duration, and reduced efficacy of the economic and financial policies adopted by the authorities. We use an original information risk model to contribute to the analysis of the crisis and to suggest some approaches for a possible early diagnosis. Using data referred to the three main financial markets and comparing the latest crisis with the previous one and with long-term quantitative evidence, we find out that the 2007-2009 crisis was very different in the information risk quality. That gap affected the market risk aversion and its equilibrium, reducing the efficacy of the authorities' intervention tools mainly based on payoff risk control and efficient market restoration. Since information risk is an endogenous element of the market dynamics that can be independent form contingent levels of market efficiency. Drivers of information risk in the European Markets differed strongly from the US and Japanese ones; that is why some global decisions had low impact while opportunities of local intervention were missed.
文摘Besides arguments like fighting against dispersed urbanization, improving economies of infrastructure and preserving natural resources, another measure to sustainability is the delight of people in staying together with others sharing a well-designed urban landscape. Analyzing the Celebration’s urban setting is highlighted how some design firms are turning to reclaim the types of urbanism and traditional American architecture, representing the wish for reinforcing the daily vicinity relationships. As a matter of sustainability, it mentioned aspects of vehicular accessibility and the population density which is higher in Celebration than that in other suburban towns in USA. Attention is given both to the management of natural landscape and the role of the entrepreneur to construct a town in a so fragile soil. The relationship between community and sustainability is highlighted, leading to the idea of building spaces to become places, capable to convey the feeling of joy of living.
基金Project(2014ZX07104-006)supported by the National Scientific and Technological Major Project of China
文摘Water eutrophication has become a worldwide environmental problem in recent years.Once a water body is eutrophicated,it will lose its primary functions and subsequently influence sustainable development of society and economy.Therefore,analysis of eutrophication becomes one of the most essential issues at present.With the ability to deal with vague and uncertain information,and express knowledge in a rule form,the rough set theory(RST) has been widely applied in diverse domains.The advantage of RST is that it can compress the rule and remove needless features by reduction inference rule.By this way,the rule gets effectively simplified and inference efficiency gets improved.However,if data amount is relatively big,it could be a process with large calculated amount to search rules by looking up tables.Petri nets(PNs) possesses so powerful parallel reasoning ability that inference result could be obtained rapidly merely by simple matrix manipulation with no need for searching rules by looking up tables.In this work,an integrated RPN model combining RST with PN was used to analyze relations between degrees of water eutrophication level and influence factors in the Pengxi River of Three Gorges Reservoir.It was shown that the RPN model could analyze water eutrophicaion accurately and quickly,and yield decision rules for the decision-makers at water purification plants of the water quality and assist them in making more cost-effective decisions.
文摘In order to address the plight of rural financing, the 2007 China Banking Regulatory Commission, China's State Council started rural banks in provinces, towns and villages. There are so many problems faced by rural banks. The most pressing issue is the sustainability of targeting deviate due to restraints, shortage of funds, and loan risks. In order to effectively address these issues, this paper presents some solutions
文摘Wind energy is considered a hope in future as a clean and sustainable energy, as can be seen by the growing number of wind farms installed all over the world. With the huge proliferation of wind farms, as an alternative to the traditional fossil power generation, the economic issues dictate the necessity of monitoring systems to optimize the availability and profits. The relatively high cost of operation and maintenance associated to wind power is a major issue. Wind turbines are most of the time located in remote areas or offshore and these factors increase the referred operation and maintenance costs. Good maintenance strategies are needed to increase the health management of wind turbines. The objective of this paper is to show the application of neural networks to analyze all the wind turbine information to identify possible future failures, based on previous information of the turbine.