Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteoro-logical forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc. , and a number of techniques have been develop...Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteoro-logical forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc. , and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various data sets.展开更多
Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new ...Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.展开更多
The following paper is a brief theoretical approach to the state of the art in relation to the new demands of society in the area of climate and weather-related services for health. Apart from the study of the impacts...The following paper is a brief theoretical approach to the state of the art in relation to the new demands of society in the area of climate and weather-related services for health. Apart from the study of the impacts of climate change on health which requires a longer consideration, a special emphasis is given to the area of weather-related services based on biometeorological forecasting. A new way of understanding the interaction between atmospheric factors and living organisms is presented and some biometeorological indexes already developed are shown. Customized biometeorological services must be constructed in the field of human health based on the ICTs development and the amount of climatic data available but new approaches and scientific methods are required to success in achieving this enterprise.展开更多
文摘Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteoro-logical forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc. , and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various data sets.
基金Core project in the key research of the 9th five-year economic development plan of China - "Study on Prediction System for Short-term Climate in China"(96-908-06-1-2-2)
文摘Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.
文摘The following paper is a brief theoretical approach to the state of the art in relation to the new demands of society in the area of climate and weather-related services for health. Apart from the study of the impacts of climate change on health which requires a longer consideration, a special emphasis is given to the area of weather-related services based on biometeorological forecasting. A new way of understanding the interaction between atmospheric factors and living organisms is presented and some biometeorological indexes already developed are shown. Customized biometeorological services must be constructed in the field of human health based on the ICTs development and the amount of climatic data available but new approaches and scientific methods are required to success in achieving this enterprise.
