无线电导航系统可靠性的指数型寿命数据评估

在已知导航设备的指数型寿命数据基础上,对部分可靠性参量:平均寿命、故障率、可靠度和可靠寿命等参量的取值作出点估计和区间估计,并给出各参量的估计方法.

A Methodology for Estimating Leaf Area Index by Assimilating Remote Sensing Data into Crop Model Based on Temporal and Spatial Knowledge

In this paper,a methodology for Leaf Area Index(LAI) estimating was proposed by assimilating remote sensed data into crop model based on temporal and spatial knowledge.Firstly,sensitive parameters of crop model were calibrated by Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at the University of Arizona(SCE-UA) optimization method based on phenological information,which is called temporal knowledge.The calibrated crop model will be used as the forecast operator.Then,the Taylor′s mean value theorem was applied to extracting spatial information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) multi-scale data,which was used to calibrate the LAI inversion results by A two-layer Canopy Reflectance Model(ACRM) model.The calibrated LAI result was used as the observation operator.Finally,an Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) was used to assimilate MODIS data into crop model.The results showed that the method could significantly improve the estimation accuracy of LAI and the simulated curves of LAI more conform to the crop growth situation closely comparing with MODIS LAI products.The root mean square error(RMSE) of LAI calculated by assimilation is 0.9185 which is reduced by 58.7% compared with that by simulation(0.3795),and before and after assimilation the mean error is reduced by 92.6% which is from 0.3563 to 0.0265.All these experiments indicated that the methodology proposed in this paper is reasonable and accurate for estimating crop LAI.

Examining Forest Net Primary Productivity Dynamics and Driving Forces in Northeastern China During 1982–2010

Forest net primary productivity （NPP） is a key parameter for forest monitoring and management. In this study, monthly and annual forest NPP in the northeastern China from 1982 to 2010 were simulated by using Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model with normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） sequences derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer （AVHRR） Global Invento y Modeling and Mapping Studies （GIMMS） and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） products. To address the problem of data inconsistency between AVHRR and MODIS data, a per-pixel unary linear regres- sion model based on least ~;quares method was developed to derive the monthly NDVI sequences. Results suggest that estimated forest NPP has mean relative error of 18.97% compared to observed NPP from forest inventory. Forest NPP in the northeastern China in- creased significantly during the twenty-nine years. The results of seasonal dynamic show that more clear increasing trend of forest NPP occurred in spring and awmnn. This study also examined the relationship between forest NPP and its driving forces including the climatic and anthropogenic factors. In spring and winter, temperature played the most pivotal role in forest NPR In autumn, precipitation acted as the most importanl factor affecting forest NPP, while solar radiation played the most important role in the summer. Evaportran- spiration had a close correlation with NPP for coniferous forest, mixed coniferous broadleaved forest, and broadleaved deciduous forest. Spatially, forest NPP in the Da Hinggan Mountains was more sensitive to climatic changes than in the other ecological functional re- gions. In addition to climalie change, the degradation and improvement of forests had important effects on forest NPP. Results in this study are helpful for understanding the regional carbon sequestration and can enrich the cases for the monitoring of vegetation during long time series.

可靠性数据折算中的环境因子计算方法改进研究

在可靠性工程实践中,环境因子是对不同试验条件下的试验数据进行综合利用的重要参数。环境因子理论计算方法在工程应用中存在着一些问题,主要探讨了指数型数据环境因子的工程确定方法,针对当被试系统故障数为零时,公式不可用问题,对其假设条件进行了修订,从而使环境因子计算结果更为合理。改进后的方法在增强了环境因子理论计算公式适用性的同时,具有更为广泛的工程实用价值。

A new plasmapause location model based on THEMIS observations

A new empirical model of plasmapause location as functions of magnetic local time and geomagnetic indices has been developed based on the observations from THEMIS mission. We use the two-year data of electron density inferred from spacecraft potential to identify the plasmapause crossings and create a database of plasmapause locations. The database is further used to build up an empirical model of plasmapause related to magnetic local time based on the equation from O'Brien and Moldwin(2003). The new model is compared with previous plasmapause location models. It is found that our newly developed model is the best in predicting plasmapause locations among the existing models. The models based on Kp and Dst indices are better than the model based on AE index, suggesting that the plasmapause location is controlled by large scale convection of the magnetosphere.

A new constitutive law for the nonlinear normal deformation of rock joints under normal load

In view of the deviation of the fitting results of the classical exponential model and the hyperbolic model （the BB model） from several experiment data during intermediate stress period, a new constitutive model for the nonlinear normal deformation of rock joints under normal monotonous load is established with flexibility-deformation method. First of all, basic laws of the deformation of joints under normal monotonous load are discussed, based on which three basic conditions which the complete constitutive equation for rock joints under normal load should meet are put forward. The analysis of the modified normal con- stitutive model on stress-deformation curve shows that the general exponential model and the improved hyperbolic model are not complete in math theory. Flexibility-deformation monotone decreasing curve lying between flexibility-deformation curve of the classical exponential model and the BB model is chosen, which meets basic conditions of normal deformation mentioned before, then a new normal deformation constitutive model of rock joints containing three parameters is established. Two main forms of flexibility-deformation curve are analyzed and specific math formulas of the two forms are deduced. Then the range of the parameters in the g-δ model and the g-2 model and the correlative influence factor in geology are preliminarily discussed. Referring to different experiment data, the validating analysis of the g-δ model and the g-γ model shows that the g-2 model can be applied to both the mated joints and unmated joints. Besides, experiment data can be better fit with the g-2 model with respect to the BB model, the classical exponential model and the logarithm model.