冲偏出跑道是国际航空运输协会指出的高风险事件。为了探索冲偏出跑道事件在国际上发生的规律,挖掘冲偏出跑道事件发生的影响因素与其耦合特征,研究了2007—2018年57起典型机型的冲偏出跑道事件的调查报告,对事件发生的伤亡人数、机型...冲偏出跑道是国际航空运输协会指出的高风险事件。为了探索冲偏出跑道事件在国际上发生的规律,挖掘冲偏出跑道事件发生的影响因素与其耦合特征,研究了2007—2018年57起典型机型的冲偏出跑道事件的调查报告,对事件发生的伤亡人数、机型、原因等进行分析。针对冲偏出跑道事件影响因素多样且复杂的特点,融合了人因分析与分类系统模型(human factor analysis and classification system,HFACS)、SHELL模型和失效模式和影响分析方法(failuremode and effect analysis,FMEA),弥补了单一方法使用的局限性,基于优化的HFACS模型,纵向深入分析了人为因素在冲偏出跑道事件中的影响,基于改进后的SHELL模型横向全面分析了冲偏出跑道事件中多因素之间的耦合影响,使用FMEA方法对冲偏出跑道事件的多影响因素耦合效应深入挖掘,提出了诱发冲偏出跑道的18种多因素耦合故障模式,判别故障模式的发生度、严重度和预测度,进而量化故障模式的风险优先值。结果表明:91.2%的冲偏出跑道事件发生在着陆阶段;87.7%的冲偏出跑道事件与机组人为因素影响有关,其中对飞机的控制不足发生频次最高,占比31.1%;多因素耦合造成了78.9%的事件发生,多因素耦合故障模式中故障模式F2-1中的机组因素和气象因素的叠加风险优先值最高,为364.8,发生次数占比21.05%也为最高,该故障模式是需要重点防控的对象,说明飞行员需要加强复杂天气条件下的冲偏出跑道防控模拟训练。展开更多
In order to construct the data mining frame for the generic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was pre...In order to construct the data mining frame for the generic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was presented with the definitions. From the model, data mining method was used to acquire the risk transmission matrix from the historical databases analysis. The quantitative calculation problem among the generic project risk elements was solved. This method deals with well the risk element transmission problems with limited states. And in order to get the limited states, fuzzy theory was used to discrete the historical data in historical databases. In an example, the controlling risk degree is chosen as P(Rs≥2) ≤0.1, it means that the probability of risk state which is not less than 2 in project is not more than 0.1, the risk element R3 is chosen to control the project, respectively. The result shows that three risk element transmission matrix can be acquired in 4 risk elements, and the frequency histogram and cumulative frequency histogram of each risk element are also given.展开更多
Corporations focus on web based education to train their employees ever more than before. Unlike traditional learning environments, web based education applications store large amount of data. This growing availabilit...Corporations focus on web based education to train their employees ever more than before. Unlike traditional learning environments, web based education applications store large amount of data. This growing availability of data stimulated the emergence of a new field called educational data mining. In this study, the classification method is implemented on a data that is obtained from a company which uses web based education to train their employees. The authors＇ aim is to find out the most critical factors that influence the users＇ success. For the classification of the data, two decision tree algorithms, Classification and Regression Tree （CART） and Quick, Unbiased and Efficient Statistical Tree （QUEST） are applied. According to the results, assurance of a certificate at the end of the training is found to be the most critical factor that influences the users＇ success. Position, number of work years and the education level of the user, are also found as important factors.展开更多
The determination of digging resistance is of decisive importance when evaluating the mining process of digging-wheel excavators. Methodic of measuring and determinant relations （formulae） are different in various c...The determination of digging resistance is of decisive importance when evaluating the mining process of digging-wheel excavators. Methodic of measuring and determinant relations （formulae） are different in various countries and by the comparison of them, underlying data for complex and objective evaluation using the knowledge from the field of rock disintegration can be obtained. In virtue of analysis of many measurements in situ, rather high specific power consumption with a wheel of excavator has been proved. What was the criterion for evaluation was the power consumption related to the volume of a rock disintegrated per unit time. From theoretical analyses, possibilities of eliminating a negative influence of the human factor upon the mining process and thus possibilities of optimum utilizing the power input of a wheel drive follow.展开更多
文摘冲偏出跑道是国际航空运输协会指出的高风险事件。为了探索冲偏出跑道事件在国际上发生的规律,挖掘冲偏出跑道事件发生的影响因素与其耦合特征,研究了2007—2018年57起典型机型的冲偏出跑道事件的调查报告,对事件发生的伤亡人数、机型、原因等进行分析。针对冲偏出跑道事件影响因素多样且复杂的特点,融合了人因分析与分类系统模型(human factor analysis and classification system,HFACS)、SHELL模型和失效模式和影响分析方法(failuremode and effect analysis,FMEA),弥补了单一方法使用的局限性,基于优化的HFACS模型,纵向深入分析了人为因素在冲偏出跑道事件中的影响,基于改进后的SHELL模型横向全面分析了冲偏出跑道事件中多因素之间的耦合影响,使用FMEA方法对冲偏出跑道事件的多影响因素耦合效应深入挖掘,提出了诱发冲偏出跑道的18种多因素耦合故障模式,判别故障模式的发生度、严重度和预测度,进而量化故障模式的风险优先值。结果表明:91.2%的冲偏出跑道事件发生在着陆阶段;87.7%的冲偏出跑道事件与机组人为因素影响有关,其中对飞机的控制不足发生频次最高,占比31.1%;多因素耦合造成了78.9%的事件发生,多因素耦合故障模式中故障模式F2-1中的机组因素和气象因素的叠加风险优先值最高,为364.8,发生次数占比21.05%也为最高,该故障模式是需要重点防控的对象,说明飞行员需要加强复杂天气条件下的冲偏出跑道防控模拟训练。
基金Project(70572090) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to construct the data mining frame for the generic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was presented with the definitions. From the model, data mining method was used to acquire the risk transmission matrix from the historical databases analysis. The quantitative calculation problem among the generic project risk elements was solved. This method deals with well the risk element transmission problems with limited states. And in order to get the limited states, fuzzy theory was used to discrete the historical data in historical databases. In an example, the controlling risk degree is chosen as P(Rs≥2) ≤0.1, it means that the probability of risk state which is not less than 2 in project is not more than 0.1, the risk element R3 is chosen to control the project, respectively. The result shows that three risk element transmission matrix can be acquired in 4 risk elements, and the frequency histogram and cumulative frequency histogram of each risk element are also given.
文摘Corporations focus on web based education to train their employees ever more than before. Unlike traditional learning environments, web based education applications store large amount of data. This growing availability of data stimulated the emergence of a new field called educational data mining. In this study, the classification method is implemented on a data that is obtained from a company which uses web based education to train their employees. The authors＇ aim is to find out the most critical factors that influence the users＇ success. For the classification of the data, two decision tree algorithms, Classification and Regression Tree （CART） and Quick, Unbiased and Efficient Statistical Tree （QUEST） are applied. According to the results, assurance of a certificate at the end of the training is found to be the most critical factor that influences the users＇ success. Position, number of work years and the education level of the user, are also found as important factors.
文摘The determination of digging resistance is of decisive importance when evaluating the mining process of digging-wheel excavators. Methodic of measuring and determinant relations （formulae） are different in various countries and by the comparison of them, underlying data for complex and objective evaluation using the knowledge from the field of rock disintegration can be obtained. In virtue of analysis of many measurements in situ, rather high specific power consumption with a wheel of excavator has been proved. What was the criterion for evaluation was the power consumption related to the volume of a rock disintegrated per unit time. From theoretical analyses, possibilities of eliminating a negative influence of the human factor upon the mining process and thus possibilities of optimum utilizing the power input of a wheel drive follow.
