The presentation describes the methods and shows the results of GLOFs＇ danger estimation in lie and Zhetysu Alatau ranges （Kazakhstan）. The catalogues of glacial lakes were made following the results of satellite i...The presentation describes the methods and shows the results of GLOFs＇ danger estimation in lie and Zhetysu Alatau ranges （Kazakhstan）. The catalogues of glacial lakes were made following the results of satellite images processing. The catalogue contains the data of 186 glacial lakes in lle Alatau and 577 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau. According to the bathymetric data of 35 glacial lakes the dependences of volume on lake＇s area for proglacial and moraine lakes were developed and lake＇s volumes were calculated. There are 32 lakes in Ile Alatau and 110 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau with water volume more than 100,000 m3. The most hazardous lakes have the following characteristics： 1） the lake volume exceeds 100,000 m3, （2） the lake is proglacial, （3） the dam is a young moraine with an ice core, （4） there are sites with the steep of more than 15° spreading for more than 500 m down the valley, and （5） there are important non-protected objects in the mudflows affected area. There are 14 the most hazardous glacial lakes with very high level of GLOF danger： 6 lakes in lie Alatau and 8 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau.展开更多
Garvey-Kelson mass relations connect nuclear masses of neighboring nuclei within high accuracy, and provide us with convenient tools in predicting unknown masses by extrapolations from existent experimental data. In t...Garvey-Kelson mass relations connect nuclear masses of neighboring nuclei within high accuracy, and provide us with convenient tools in predicting unknown masses by extrapolations from existent experimental data. In this paper we investigate optimal"channels" of the Garvey-Kelson relations in extrapolation to the unknown regions, and tabulate our predicted masses by using these optimized channels of the Garvey-Kelson relations.展开更多
We consider the statistical inference for right-censored data when censoring indicators are missing but nonignorable, and propose an adjusted imputation product-limit estimator. The proposed estimator is shown to be c...We consider the statistical inference for right-censored data when censoring indicators are missing but nonignorable, and propose an adjusted imputation product-limit estimator. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and converges to a Gaussian process. Furthermore, we develop an empirical processbased testing method to check the MAR (missing at random) mechanism, and establish asymptotic properties for the proposed test statistic. To determine the critical value of the test, a consistent model-based bootstrap method is suggested. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed method and compare it with existing methods. We also analyze a real data set from a breast cancer study for an illustration.展开更多
文摘The presentation describes the methods and shows the results of GLOFs＇ danger estimation in lie and Zhetysu Alatau ranges （Kazakhstan）. The catalogues of glacial lakes were made following the results of satellite images processing. The catalogue contains the data of 186 glacial lakes in lle Alatau and 577 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau. According to the bathymetric data of 35 glacial lakes the dependences of volume on lake＇s area for proglacial and moraine lakes were developed and lake＇s volumes were calculated. There are 32 lakes in Ile Alatau and 110 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau with water volume more than 100,000 m3. The most hazardous lakes have the following characteristics： 1） the lake volume exceeds 100,000 m3, （2） the lake is proglacial, （3） the dam is a young moraine with an ice core, （4） there are sites with the steep of more than 15° spreading for more than 500 m down the valley, and （5） there are important non-protected objects in the mudflows affected area. There are 14 the most hazardous glacial lakes with very high level of GLOF danger： 6 lakes in lie Alatau and 8 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11225524,11675101,and 11505113)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB834401)+1 种基金Shanghai Key Laboratory(Grant No.11DZ2260700)the Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader(Grant No.16XD1401600)
文摘Garvey-Kelson mass relations connect nuclear masses of neighboring nuclei within high accuracy, and provide us with convenient tools in predicting unknown masses by extrapolations from existent experimental data. In this paper we investigate optimal"channels" of the Garvey-Kelson relations in extrapolation to the unknown regions, and tabulate our predicted masses by using these optimized channels of the Garvey-Kelson relations.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10901162 and 10926073)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation and Foundation of the Key Laboratory of Random Complex Structures and Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences+2 种基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10971007 and 11101015)the fund from the government of Beijing (Grant No. 2011D005015000007)supported by National Science Foundation of US (Grant Nos. DMS0806097 and DMS1007167)
文摘We consider the statistical inference for right-censored data when censoring indicators are missing but nonignorable, and propose an adjusted imputation product-limit estimator. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and converges to a Gaussian process. Furthermore, we develop an empirical processbased testing method to check the MAR (missing at random) mechanism, and establish asymptotic properties for the proposed test statistic. To determine the critical value of the test, a consistent model-based bootstrap method is suggested. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed method and compare it with existing methods. We also analyze a real data set from a breast cancer study for an illustration.
