Based on data collected by Chinese Civil Aviation Statistic Center, the annual CO2 emissions of aircrafts during 1960-2009 were calculated, and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The...Based on data collected by Chinese Civil Aviation Statistic Center, the annual CO2 emissions of aircrafts during 1960-2009 were calculated, and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the total CO2 emissions of aircrafts in China increased from 120×10^3 t in 1960 to 41.44×10^6 t in 2009. The CO2 emission intensity decreased from 2.9 kg （converted t kra）-1 in 1960 to 0.96 kg （converted t km）-1 in 2009 at an average rate of 0.04 kg （converted t km）-I per year. The average share of CO2 emissions of aircrafts on the total CO2 emissions from the sector of transportation, storage and post was 6.6% during 1980-2005, and 0.25% on the total emissions from fossil fuel combustion during 1971-2008.展开更多
This study estimates direct radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all aerosols between the years 1850 and 2000, using the new IPCC AR5 （the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report） em...This study estimates direct radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all aerosols between the years 1850 and 2000, using the new IPCC AR5 （the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report） emissions inventories and a fully coupled chemistry-aerosol general circulation model. As compared to the previous Global Emissions Inventory Activity （GEIA） data, that have been commonly used for forcing estimates since 1990, the IPCC AR5 emissions inventories report lower anthropogenic emissions of organic carbon and black carbon aerosols and higher sulfur and NOx emissions. The simulated global and annual mean burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon （BC）, primary organic aerosol （POA）, secondary organic aerosol （SOA）, and ozone were 0.79, 0.35, 0.05, 0.49, 0.34, and 269 Tg, respectively, in the year 1850, and 1.90, 0.90, 0.11, 0.71, 0.32, and 377 Tg, respectively, in the year 2000. The estimated annual mean top of the atmosphere （TOA） direct radiative forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols based on the AR5 emissions inventories is -0.60 W m^-2 on a global mean basis from 1850 to 2000. However, this is -2.40 W m-2 when forcing values are averaged over eastern China （18-45°N and 95-125°E）. The value for tropospheric ozone is 0.17 W m^-1 on a global mean basis and 0.24 W m^-2 over eastern China. Forcing values indicate that the climatic effect of aerosols over eastern China is much more significant than the globally averaged effect.展开更多
Based on annual statistical data collected by the Chinese Railway Statistic Center, the CO2 emissions of locomotives during 1975-2005 were calculated and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were ana...Based on annual statistical data collected by the Chinese Railway Statistic Center, the CO2 emissions of locomotives during 1975-2005 were calculated and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the CO2 emissions of steam locomotives decreased while that of diesel locomotives increased with time, due to the continuous shift from steam to diesel and electric locomotives. The total CO2 emissions of steam and diesel locomo- tives in China decreased from 42.23 Mt in 1975 to 16.40 Mt in 2005. The emission intensity of CO2 from the two kinds of locomotives decreased at an average rate of 2.4 g （converted t kin）-1 per year. The percentage of the CO2 emissions of locomotives to the total CO2 emissions in the sector of transportation, storage and post in China also decreased persistently from 1980 to 2005.展开更多
China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2...China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2） coal＇s share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3） non-fossil energy＇s share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4） through 2030, China＇s GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5） the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6） the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China＇s electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China＇s energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.展开更多
One of the major concerns in structures is early detection of a growing crack to prevent fracture, predict remaining useful life, schedule maintenance and reduce costly downtimes. AE （acoustic emission） is a non-des...One of the major concerns in structures is early detection of a growing crack to prevent fracture, predict remaining useful life, schedule maintenance and reduce costly downtimes. AE （acoustic emission） is a non-destructive testing method with potential applications for locating and monitoring fatigue cracks. This paper focuses on in-situ monitoring of structural health, specifically detection of small crack growth and crack initiation in structures using AE technology. A probabilistic AE-based model for small fatigue cracks was developed and the uncertainties of the model were estimated. The paper discusses the methodology used, experimental approach, results obtained and predictive models developed.The developed model can be used to evaluate the integrity of structures and assess structural health by estimating the probability density function of the length of detected cracks. The outcome of this research has significant potential to be used for in-situ monitoring and evaluation of structural integrity.展开更多
In the last two decades, the global interest on farmland grew at a remarkable pace. As a consequence, million hectares of land exchanged hands. The ways the transfers happened combined with their geographic concentrat...In the last two decades, the global interest on farmland grew at a remarkable pace. As a consequence, million hectares of land exchanged hands. The ways the transfers happened combined with their geographic concentration in Sub-Saharian Africa, have earned the phenomenon the name of ＂land grab＂. The agricultural sector considered a ＂sunset industry＂ when commodities prices were declining, is now attractive to financial investors. These foreign investments may be good as they may improve agricultural productivity or instead bad as they may benefit only financial investors. Some results in terms of environmental and local communities＇ worsening conditions have already emerged. This paper aims to investigate what drives the big size transfers of land, to empirically estimate their effects in terms of local employment and to assess the environmental effects produced by the rapid transformation in the use of vast amount of land in terms of CO2 emissions. It is also proposed to use the estimation in terms of local employment impact as a way of distinguishing between foreign direct investment and land grabbing.展开更多
基金supported by Climate Change Special Project of China Meteorological Administration (No. CCSF2011-14)
文摘Based on data collected by Chinese Civil Aviation Statistic Center, the annual CO2 emissions of aircrafts during 1960-2009 were calculated, and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the total CO2 emissions of aircrafts in China increased from 120×10^3 t in 1960 to 41.44×10^6 t in 2009. The CO2 emission intensity decreased from 2.9 kg （converted t kra）-1 in 1960 to 0.96 kg （converted t km）-1 in 2009 at an average rate of 0.04 kg （converted t km）-I per year. The average share of CO2 emissions of aircrafts on the total CO2 emissions from the sector of transportation, storage and post was 6.6% during 1980-2005, and 0.25% on the total emissions from fossil fuel combustion during 1971-2008.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.90711004 and40825016)the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos.KZCX2-YW-Q1 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)
文摘This study estimates direct radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all aerosols between the years 1850 and 2000, using the new IPCC AR5 （the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report） emissions inventories and a fully coupled chemistry-aerosol general circulation model. As compared to the previous Global Emissions Inventory Activity （GEIA） data, that have been commonly used for forcing estimates since 1990, the IPCC AR5 emissions inventories report lower anthropogenic emissions of organic carbon and black carbon aerosols and higher sulfur and NOx emissions. The simulated global and annual mean burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon （BC）, primary organic aerosol （POA）, secondary organic aerosol （SOA）, and ozone were 0.79, 0.35, 0.05, 0.49, 0.34, and 269 Tg, respectively, in the year 1850, and 1.90, 0.90, 0.11, 0.71, 0.32, and 377 Tg, respectively, in the year 2000. The estimated annual mean top of the atmosphere （TOA） direct radiative forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols based on the AR5 emissions inventories is -0.60 W m^-2 on a global mean basis from 1850 to 2000. However, this is -2.40 W m-2 when forcing values are averaged over eastern China （18-45°N and 95-125°E）. The value for tropospheric ozone is 0.17 W m^-1 on a global mean basis and 0.24 W m^-2 over eastern China. Forcing values indicate that the climatic effect of aerosols over eastern China is much more significant than the globally averaged effect.
文摘Based on annual statistical data collected by the Chinese Railway Statistic Center, the CO2 emissions of locomotives during 1975-2005 were calculated and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the CO2 emissions of steam locomotives decreased while that of diesel locomotives increased with time, due to the continuous shift from steam to diesel and electric locomotives. The total CO2 emissions of steam and diesel locomo- tives in China decreased from 42.23 Mt in 1975 to 16.40 Mt in 2005. The emission intensity of CO2 from the two kinds of locomotives decreased at an average rate of 2.4 g （converted t kin）-1 per year. The percentage of the CO2 emissions of locomotives to the total CO2 emissions in the sector of transportation, storage and post in China also decreased persistently from 1980 to 2005.
文摘China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2） coal＇s share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3） non-fossil energy＇s share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4） through 2030, China＇s GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5） the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6） the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China＇s electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China＇s energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.
文摘One of the major concerns in structures is early detection of a growing crack to prevent fracture, predict remaining useful life, schedule maintenance and reduce costly downtimes. AE （acoustic emission） is a non-destructive testing method with potential applications for locating and monitoring fatigue cracks. This paper focuses on in-situ monitoring of structural health, specifically detection of small crack growth and crack initiation in structures using AE technology. A probabilistic AE-based model for small fatigue cracks was developed and the uncertainties of the model were estimated. The paper discusses the methodology used, experimental approach, results obtained and predictive models developed.The developed model can be used to evaluate the integrity of structures and assess structural health by estimating the probability density function of the length of detected cracks. The outcome of this research has significant potential to be used for in-situ monitoring and evaluation of structural integrity.
文摘In the last two decades, the global interest on farmland grew at a remarkable pace. As a consequence, million hectares of land exchanged hands. The ways the transfers happened combined with their geographic concentration in Sub-Saharian Africa, have earned the phenomenon the name of ＂land grab＂. The agricultural sector considered a ＂sunset industry＂ when commodities prices were declining, is now attractive to financial investors. These foreign investments may be good as they may improve agricultural productivity or instead bad as they may benefit only financial investors. Some results in terms of environmental and local communities＇ worsening conditions have already emerged. This paper aims to investigate what drives the big size transfers of land, to empirically estimate their effects in terms of local employment and to assess the environmental effects produced by the rapid transformation in the use of vast amount of land in terms of CO2 emissions. It is also proposed to use the estimation in terms of local employment impact as a way of distinguishing between foreign direct investment and land grabbing.
